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Program Archive

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

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7:00 AM

REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

7:30 AM

CANADIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

 

 

YEAR IN REVIEW: A SNAPSHOT OF THE YEAR THAT WAS

 
Stefan Ciotlos,
President, CB Richard Ellis Limited

 

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE ECONOMY FOR 2011 AND BEYOND

 

An insightful examination of key trends in the North American economy with a specific view towards their future direction over the short and medium terms, including the outlook for the Canadian and U.S. dollars, interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth. How will the U.S. economy perform in 2011? Is the recovery real and will it endure? Is the performance of the emerging markets sustainable? What will be the implications of the U.S. and these other economies on the outlook for Canada?

Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank

 

THE CANADIAN AND U.S POLITICAL OUTLOOK: NOW WHAT?

 

A discussion on how the national political landscapes are evolving in both Canada and the United States. What will happen in the U.S. as a result of the mid-year election results? What does the future hold for the Conservatives and Liberals in Canada? Are we facing a federal election in the coming year? How are the policies of the U.S. and Canadian governments affecting the economy? How will the changing of the guard in several provincial and municipal offices impact the dynamics across the country?

Andrew Coyne, National Editor, Maclean's

 

THE OUTLOOK FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE AND DEAL FLOW ACROSS CANADA

 

An overview of key commercial real estate leasing and investment trends across Canada in the office, industrial, retail, hotel and multi-residential sectors. How did they perform in 2010? What is the outlook for 2011? What have been the most significant implications of cheap debt and abundant capital on cap rates and transaction activity? How will the leasing markets perform going forward?

John O'Bryan, Vice Chairman, CB Richard Ellis Limited

9:30 AM

 

YIELD VS. RISK: HOW STRONG ARE THE CAPITAL FLOWS INTO THE REAL ESTATE AND DEBT MARKETS? IS CMBS POSED TO MAKE A COMEBACK?

 

A wide ranging panel discussion will examine the strategic deployment of capital and asset allocation from the perspective of banks, life insurers, capital markets, and financial services corporations. The participants will offer their views from different points on the compass as they comment on the current capital and credit market environment; what they foresee in 2011 and beyond; what risks and opportunities are emerging at this time; in what markets and in what form would they favour deploying their capital; and where the real estate asset class fits relative to all their other investment opportunities for the year ahead. With relative yields on commercial mortgage bonds falling, do investors believe that the worst is over for the debt? Is the CMBS market posed to make a comeback?

Moderators:
Derek Dermott, Managing Director
, BMO Capital Markets Real Estate Group
Cathal O'Connor, Executive Vice President & CFO, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited

Panel:
Hugh Macdonell, Managing Director, Merchant Banking, Morgan Stanley
Sandy McIntyre, President & CIO, Sentry Investments
Allan Kimberley, Vice Chairman & Managing Director, Investment Banking Real Estate, CIBC World Markets Inc.
Moray Tawse, Vice President, Investments, First National Financial LP
Darrell Wheeler, Senior Managing Director, Amherst Securities Group

10:25 AM

MORNING REFRESHMENTS

 

10:50 AM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT A1, A2, OR A3)

 

SESSION A1
LENDERS' ROUNDTABLE: THE MARKET FOR MEDIUM AND LARGER LOANS AND MAJOR CENTRES




The panel will examine the changes in underwriting practices and deployment of debt capital in the Canadian market. Most commercial real estate lenders are feeling safer today than they did a few years ago. But they are also facing stronger competitive environments as allocations for 2011 have increased in some instances from 25% to 40%, amortizations from 20 to 25 years, and LTV ratios from 60% to 70% levels. The discussion will open with a brief overview of a national survey of Canadian commercial mortgage market activity. This session will then focus on what borrowers should expect to see in 2011 in major markets across Canada. Some of the additional questions that will be examined: Who will be the major providers of debt in Canada and what will they be looking for? How will the strategies of banks, insurance companies, pension funds and other institutions vary from those of private sources of debt capital? How are lenders evaluating a deal in today’s market? How is risk being priced now? What is happening with loan spreads, amortization periods, loan to value ratios, and recourse financing? What property classes are lenders avoiding, reducing exposure to, or increasing pricing for?

Moderator:
Mark Achtemichuk,
Director, Mortgage Valuation, Canadian Mortgage Loan Services Limited


Panel to include:
Paul Chin,
Vice President & Head of Real Estate Lending, Otéra Capital
Ron Findley, Assistant Vice President & Regional Director, The Great-West Life Assurance Company
Mark Hart, Vice President, CIBC Commercial Mortgages Inc.
Audrey Howe, President, ACM Advisors Ltd.
Andrew Huntley, Vice President, Mortgage Investments, AIMCo



SESSION A2
GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS & LENDING TRENDS: IS CANADA ON INTERNATIONAL RADAR SCREENS? IS THE U.S. RECOVERY NOW PICKING UP MUCH MORE STEAM?



The last twelve months has seen a major swing in global capital flows, from the stagnant market of Q4 2008 to vibrant public capital raising and recapitalizations and the emergence of new forms of private capital during 2010. As foreign lenders return to the commercial mortgage markets and foreign investors deploy their capital, how appealing are Canadian real estate properties for them? Among the other questions that this panel will address: What are you seeing now in the capital and financial markets outside of Canada? Is the recovery now accelerating in the U.S. to the point of being a “game changer”? How does that compare with the environment in Western Europe? What will become of all the fresh capital that is in search of yields and lower risks? Who will now be the players – old versus new? Where are they going to focus, how are they going to raise their financing, and what will be the structural form of their investments? How are these trends affecting the Canadian market? What is happening abroad that may come to Canada? What kind of underwriting could Canadian real estate owners expect to see from foreign sources entering our market?

Moderator:
Greg Kalil
, Managing Partner, Brookfield Financial

Panel:
Russell Chaplin, CIO, Property, Aberdeen Asset Managment PLC
Carmin Di Fiore, Senior Vice President, Real Estate Banking, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Christian Strauch, Managing Director, AL.I.NA KGAL Group

 

SESSION A3
HOW ARE REITs AND REOCs PERFORMING IN THIS MARKET? WHAT ARE INVESTORS’ EXPECTATIONS GOING FORWARD: SAFETY OR GROWTH?



As capital pours into Canadian REITs, these securitized entities are well capitalized, have balanced debt maturity profiles, and generally have high-quality assets, which are easier to refinance. Following the significant turbulence of 2008 that peaked in early 2009, REITs have raised billions of dollars for their war chests over the past twenty months and their unit values have roared back. Is this performance sustainable is now the question among investors and REIT management? Has the market discounted the future? What returns are unit holders, portfolio managers and analysts expecting? A few years ago, strong growth potential was a key criteria in selecting REITs. Then the criteria became safety in recent years. Who will be rewarded now going forward, e.g. those REITs and REOCs that are considered safe or those who are have strong growth prospects?

Moderator:
Stephen Sender,
Managing Director, Industry Head, Scotia Capital Inc.

Panel:
Maria Berlettano, Vice President & Director, J. Zechner Associates Inc.
Sam Damiani, Vice President & Director, Real Estate & Lodging Equity Research, TD Newcrest
Kevin Hall, Senior Portfolio Manager, Guardian Capital LP
Dennis Mitchell, Deputy Chief Investment Officer & Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments

11:50 AM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT B1, B2, OR B3)

   
 

SESSION B1
WHAT ARE PENSION FUNDS AND OTHER INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS FOCUSED ON IN 2011?



This session will examine the strategic appetite of pension funds and institutional investors for real estate in 2011. There is a considerable amount of speculation that REITs and private equity have significantly overtaken pension funds with respect to raising capital for deployment in real estate and in being the successful acquirers in most deals. But is that really the case? Given the upsurge in public equity markets over the past year, what have the implications been for the asset allocation strategies of pension funds and institutional investors? How do pension funds strategically determine the extent of their exposure to real estate? What impact does the search for yield have on asset allocation decisions? Will some Canadian funds be net sellers domestically while they continue to diversify internationally? What is their diversification model? What will smaller funds and other institutional investors likely to be doing?

Moderator:
Dan Giaquinto
, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group


Panel:
Peter Ballon
, Vice President, Head of Real Estate Investments - Americas, CPP Investment Board
Micheal Dal Bello, Senior Vice President, Real Estate, AIMCo
Bill Perkins, President, Redcliff Realty Advisors
Andrea Stephen, Executive Vice President, Investments, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited


SESSION B2
MEETING THE DEMAND FOR SMALLER LOANS, SECONDARY MARKETS AND TIER TWO ASSETS


A significant part of the Canadian commercial mortgage market consists of properties that have financing needs in the range of $15 million or less. In some instances, these assets are found in secondary markets while, in other cases, they represent B or C class buildings in larger centres. This session will examine these opportunities in greater detail. Among the questions that will be examined: Who is lending at these levels, at what rates, with kind of underwriting criteria, and to whom? How is risk being priced for these smaller loans? What is happening with loan spreads, amortization periods, loan to value ratios, and recourse? Are smaller communities and other geographic areas a tougher sell in 2011 or are they being well served? What is the market for B and C class properties that are out of favour with major lenders? Does anyone have an interest in underperforming assets?

Moderator:
Steve McEwen
, Partner, Montrose Mortgage Corporation

Panel:
Blake Cassidy, Managing Partner, Romspen Investment Corporation

Allan Jensen
, Vice President, Commercial Services, Alterna Savings


Jeff Lastiwka,
President & CEO, JayCap Financial Ltd.

Chris Sharp, Managing Director, Penmor Mortgage Capital Corporation


 

SESSION B3
THE CFO PERSPECTIVE: IS CHEAP DEBT AND EQUITY A TWO EDGE SWORD? WHAT ARE THEIR MAJOR ISSUES AS BORROWERS IN THIS MARKET?


This panel will look at the trends and issues related to raising debt, credit and capital from the borrowers’ perspectives. Among the questions that will be addressed: How much easier has it been to access the capital that you require in today’s market than a year ago? If so, then what have been the most significant changes? How much debt are you carrying, when does it roll over, and how will you likely refinance? What are the most key sources of capital that you are tapping? Who has the lowest cost of capital now? How strong is the growth in unsecured debt? Do you have any challenges with how underwriting is being done in today’s market and how lenders are pricing or trying to transfer risk? Do you sense that these are transitional measures or more structural? What about new acquisitions and development? How are they being financed? What information do various interests require from a valuation including management, purchasers, vendors, shareholders, auditors, lenders, etc? How does one determine value in today's market? Where is valuation heading going forward, e.g. GAAP vs IFRS? What else does a buyer, investor or seller need to understand?

Moderator:
Karen Weaver,
Executive Vice President & CFO, First Capital Realty Inc.

Panel:
Glenn Hynes, CFO & Secretary, Crombie REIT
Bart Munn, CFO, Calloway REIT
Brady Welch, Partner, Slate Properties Inc.

 

12:50 PM

NETWORKING LUNCHEON

 
 

 

LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS

 

AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS

 


2:00 PM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT C1, C2 or C3)

 

SESSION C1
FINANCING CONSTRUCTION, DEVELOPMENT AND CONDOMINIUMS IN TODAY’S MARKET



Notwithstanding the decline in commercial real estate development over the past three years, new condominium activity has remained strong in the Greater Toronto Area and several other markets during this time. With the improvements in the Canadian economy, construction and development is beginning to increase once again in the retail, office and industrial sectors. Projects can range from build-to-suits and multi-tenant retail centres, to office and condominium buildings. This session will examine financing trends associated with these types of projects. Among the questions that will be discussed:
How buoyant is the market now for construction financing? What are the major sources of debt financing and equity investment for this type of activity? How much capital is supporting these lending products? How are lenders and investors pricing risk for this type of financing? What underwriting practices are they using to evaluate potential projects? How do sources and pricing vary between build-to-suits, development for your own account, and sale leasebacks? What other significant criteria can apply to different types of assets, the project’s location and size etc.? How do you protect yourself from cost overruns?

Moderator:
Dino DiVito
, Senior Vice President & CFO, Great Gulf Group

Panel:
Gary Berman, President & COO, Tricon Capital Group Inc.
Larry Hyett, Vice President, Commercial and Residential Services, FCT
Bruno Iacovetta, Managing Director, Residential Construction Lending, MCAP
Jim Tadeson, Senior Principal, Carttera Private Equities Inc.

 

SESSION C2
MEZZANINE FINANCING, MORTGAGE FUNDS AND ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF CAPITAL: WHAT IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS PART OF THE MARKET?



Mezzanine financing, private mortgage funds and other secondary sources of capital are playing an important role in today’s real estate market. This session will examine the availability and cost of this type of credit. What is the market for mezzanine financing and private mortgages? Who is filling this strategic gap? How is this type of financing being priced in 2011? What are their exit strategies? What is the strongest market for this type of product? How can you differentiate one fund from another? What are the underlying strategies that the sources of capital are using with respect to risk/reward/return for the deployment of these funds? What are the major differences between what they were doing prior to mid 2007 and now? What will be their priorities for 2011 by product type and market across Canada?

Moderator:
Robert Goodall
, President, Canadian Mortgage Capital Corporation

Panel:
Scott Coates, Managing Director, Mortgage Investments, KingSett Capital
Michael Nisker, Senior Vice President, Trez Capital
Howard Steinberg, President and Co-Chief Investment Officer, The Rose Corporation
Alan Winer, President, Harbour Mortgage Corporation

 

SESSION C3
HOW CHALLENGING IS IT TO ACQUIRE ASSETS IN THIS MARKET? HOW DO YOU STRUCTURE THE DEAL IN ORDER TO WIN THE BEAUTY CONTEST?



An insightful discussion about investment activity in today’s very competitive market environment. With many organizations’ acquisition war chests overflowing with cash, many executives are looking for appropriate assets to buy. The panel will address a range of questions including: What have been the major challenges in order to buy or sell assets in this market? What are the differences, if any, between the issues faced by a REIT vs. a pension funds vs. a private equity fund vs. a foreign investor in selling or acquiring properties at this time? What information do you need in order to try to do a deal in this market? How much leverage is appropriate in this market? Where do you project that cap rates will be by the end of 2011 relative to today’s prices? Who will be the most active buyers? Who do you anticipate will be the likely sellers? Which product types will be most favoured by you? Which markets will be “top of mind”, and why?


Moderator:
Peter Senst, Executive Vice President & Director, CB Richard Ellis Limited

Please contact Krista Reardon, krista.reardon@cbre.com, for more information about Peter Senst's PowerPoint.

Panel:
Phil Gillin, Senior Managing Director & Head, Canadian Real Estate, Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada
Jonathan Gitlin, Senior Vice President, Investments, RioCan REIT
Joe Mazzocco, Partner, Investments, KingSett Capital
Paul Zemla, Chief Investment Officer, Bentall Kennedy

3:00 PM

CLOSING ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION: THE LAST WORD ON CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS, LIQUIDITY, VALUES, AND DEAL FLOW IN 2011

 

 


A discussion with senior real estate and institutional executives on their perspective of Canadian real estate fundamentals, trends, opportunities and strategies for 2011; a comparative of the Canadian market with U.S. and global conditions; their insights the extent of the liquidity problem and its continuation over the next twelve months; and their strategies going forward.

• How much deal flow can be expected in the Canadian market in 2011?

• What impact will the cost and availability of capital have on cap rates and real estate values across Canada for the next twelve months? How do you price assets in this market?

• What are you seeing in capital, financial and real estate markets outside of Canada? Will any of these trends be prevalent in Canada as well?

• What investment opportunities have emerged in the market due to the lending environment of the past two years?

• What kinds of transactions will offer the best possible returns in 2011? Do you anticipate any increase in buying opportunities for your organization?

• What do you anticipate will happen with the credit and capital markets in the over the next twelve months? What will be the key determinants of such a change?

• What, if anything, are you doing differently now as a result of these factors?

• Who has the lowest cost of capital now? Who will be most significant winners and who will be the losers in the market in 2011?

Moderators:
Derek Dermott, Managing Director
, BMO Capital Markets Real Estate Group
Cathal O'Connor, Executive Vice President & CFO, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited

Panel:
Michael Cooper, Chief Executive Officer, Dundee REIT
Peter Cuthbert, Head of Canadian Real Estate, Standard Life Investments
Michael Emory, President & CEO, Allied Properties REIT
John Hayes, Managing Partner, Blackwood Partners Inc.
Colin Loudon, Executive Vice President & CFO, Oxford Properties Group Inc.


4:00 PM

ADJOURNMENT & NETWORKING RECEPTION

 

REAL ESTATE FORUMS & CONFERENCES