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The RealCapital program is presented to you by:
Platinum Sponsor:
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Gold
Sponsors:
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All delegates to RealCapital will automatically be
registered to attend the
CB Richard
Ellis Market Update presentations. |
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7:00 a.m. |
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Registration Opens
Breakfast Begins
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7:30 a.m. |
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The
Outlook for the Economy for 2008 and Beyond
An
insightful examination of key trends in the North
American economy with a specific view towards their
future direction over the short and medium terms,
including the outlook for the Canadian dollar, interest
rates, inflation, GDP growth, and bond yields. Will the
U.S. economy be more sluggish in 2008 or will it level
off and start to recover? What will be the implications
for Canada? How much more of an impact can be expected
from the sub-prime market and commercial paper fallout?
Dr. Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief
Economist, Scotiabank 
The
Canadian Political Outlook: Now what?
A discussion on how the federal and provincial political
landscapes are evolving, when a federal election will
likely take place and the outcome, what will happen to
the Tories in Ontario, and what impact these trends may
have for Canadian real estate lenders, investors and
corporations.
Andrew Coyne, National Editor,
Macleans Magazine
The
Outlook for Commercial Real Estate Across Canada
An overview of key commercial real estate leasing and
investment trends across Canada in the office,
industrial, retail, and multi-residential sectors.
Predictions for 2008 and 2009 will also be presented.
Implications of the tightening credit markets on cap
rates and transaction activity will also be discussed.
Blake Hutcheson, Chairman & President, CB Richard Ellis Limited
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9:00 a.m. |
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CB
Richard Ellis Market Update Concludes |
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9:30
a.m. |
REPRICING
RISK AFTER THE CREDIT CRUNCH: WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS ON
CAPITAL FLOWS, DEBT FINANCING AND REAL ESTATE EQUITY
INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN CANADA? |
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The panel will examine and provide an
overview of the impacts of the credit crunch, the U.S.
subprime loan losses, and the ABCP debacle on the
availability and price of capital for debt and equity
for Canadian real estate transactions. Among the
questions that will be addressed:
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Deal
flow in 2008 – What is it going to be like in Canada
this year and what will this mean to people in the
commercial and investment real estate market?
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What
have been the major impacts on the debt and equity
markets?
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What
has happened to the re-pricing of risk, underwriting
standards, and how has the debt market re-segmented
itself?
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What
has happened to the unsecured debt market?
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Is
there still a “wall of capital” on the equity side
or has it moved on? Who is left? Will they need to
be as aggressive? How will REITs compete?
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How
are leveraged buyers faring in the market opposite
all cash buyers? To what extent have cap rates moved
up?
Who has the lowest cost of capital
now?
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What
are the opportunities in this market? Who will be
the winners and who will be the losers?
Moderators:
Andrew Phillips,
Managing Director, Investment Banking, TD Securities
Inc.
Karen Weaver, CFO,
First Capital Realty Inc.
Panel:
Colleen Campbell,
Executive Managing Director
& Head of Canadian Debt
Capital Markets, BMO Capital
Markets
David Dulberg, Managing Director, RBC Capital
Markets Real Estate Group
Merrie Frankel, Vice
President & Senior Credit Officer, Real Estate Finance,
Moody’s Investors Service
Dr. Warren Jestin, Senior Vice
President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank
Moray Tawse, Vice President,
Mortgage Investments,
First National Financial LP
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10:30 a.m. |
MORNING REFRESHMENTS |
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10:55 a.m. |
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select
A1, A2
or A3) |
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Session A1
THE
NEW UNDERWRITING STANDARDS: LENDERS’ ROUNDTABLE ON THE
DIRECTION OF THE DEBT MARKET FOR 2008 AND BEYOND

A wide-ranging panel
discussion will examine how underwriting practices and
activities are changing in today’s capital environment
from the perspective of the major conventional lenders:
banks, pension funds, insurance companies and financial
services. Some of the questions that will be examined:
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Are
conventional lenders’ programs adjusting to fill the
$4B void created by the virtual disappearance of the
CMBS market?
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How
is risk now being priced? What has happened to the
widening of loan spreads? How are lenders assessing
a deal and pricing it in today’s market?
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How
much money is available for commercial mortgages in
2008 compared to prior years and from what major
sources?
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What
are the challenges with pricing loans in the current
environment and how have portfolio lenders reacted?
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What
asset types are lenders avoiding, reducing exposure
to, or increasing pricing for? Are smaller
communities and other geographic areas a tougher
sell?
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What
has happened to “relationship” borrowing through the
second half of 2007 and early 2008?
Moderator:
Robert Goodall, President,
Canadian Mortgage Capital Corporation
Panel:
Sheldon Esbin, President, Romspen
Investment Corporation
Ron Findley, Assistant Vice
President & Regional Director, The Great-West
Life Assurance Company
Nigel Howard, Vice President,
Commercial Mortgages & Specialized Lending,
CIBC
Commercial Mortgages Inc.
Andrew Huntley,
Head, Mortgage Investments
Alberta Investment Management Corp.
Paul Stone, Regional Director,
Canadian Real Estate Investments,
MetLife
Session A2
GLOBAL CAPITAL & LENDING TRENDS: WILL TERMINATION OF THE
WITHHOLDING TAX ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN ACTIVITY IN CANADA?

The
elimination of the 25% withholding tax on interest on
certain cross-border loans is expected to come into
effect as early as March 1, 2008. What will be the
implications of this new policy on U.S. and other
foreign sources of commercial real estate financing?
Could this lead to an increase in cross border activity
and more U.S. lenders moving into Canada? If so, what
kind of underwriting could Canadian real estate owners
expect to see from U.S. sources entering our market?
This session will explore what could be one source of
major new credit providers that could replace some of
the gap created in Canada with the considerable winding
down of CMBS activity. Among the questions that will be
discussed:
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What are you seeing now in capital and financial
markets outside of Canada? Is there the same kind
of compression in Europe as there is in Canada?
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Is money expected to continue to leave the real
estate sector in the U.S. or are markets starting to
rebound?
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What has happened to real estate pricing globally?
How has risk been repriced?
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How
are these trends affecting the Canadian market?
What
is happening abroad that may come to Canada?
Moderator:
Doug Podd, Partner, Brookfield Financial
Panel:
Tim Kenny, Managing Director,
Babson Capital Management LLC
Dietmar Klein, Managing
Director,
Real Estate Lending North America,
DekaBank (Frankfurt, Germany)
Scott Schaevitz, Managing Director, Global Real
Estate Group,
Lehman Brothers
Daniel Simunac, Head of Real
Estate Finance, Canada,
Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c.
Session A3
FINANCING CONSTRUCTION &
DEVELOPMENT IN TODAY’S MARKET

While development and construction activity continues to
be strong in most real estate asset types (office,
industrial, retail, hotel) and the housing market
(condominiums, subdivisions), what has happened to
financing activity since the subprime meltdown of 2007?
Is construction financing still readily available or
have tightened underwriting standards made financing
more difficult? Among the other questions that will be
discussed:
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How
tight is the market for construction financing?
Where are spreads heading? How much of an impact
will this have on the price of capital and cost
push?
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What is the outlook for trends in construction costs
over the next 24 months? How will this affect
mortgage capital decisions?
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What are the major sources of debt financing and
equity investment for construction and development
for 2008? Will more equity be required?
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How
do sources and pricing vary between build-to-suits,
development for your own account, and sale
leasebacks?
Case
studies of construction financing and long-term
financing will also be presented.
Moderator:
Hayden Solomons, Partner, Aird &
Berlis LLP
Panel:
Carmin Di Fiore, Senior Vice President,
Commercial Real
Estate Banking,
Bank of America
Bruno Iacovetta, Managing
Director, Real Estate Group,
MCAP Financial Corporation
Michael Lombard,
Vice President and Regional
Manager,
Peoples Trust Company
Alan Winer, President, Harbour
Mortgage Corporation
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11:55 a.m. |
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select
B1, B2 or B3) |
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Session B1
CMBS AND MORTGAGE LOAN
SECURITIZATION IN CANADA: WILL THEY SURVIVE?

This session will assess the current state of what was a
$4B CMBS market in Canada after the severe disruptions
in 2007. Have buyers of CMBS product re-materialized? Is
it likely to rebound to any degree in 2008? Other issues
explored will include:
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How
has the subprime mess thinned out CMBS activity? Who
is left and still committed to the market in Canada?
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Will traditional relationship-based banking eat into
CMBS volumes?
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What are the major differences between CDO (managed
pools) and ABCP vs. CMBS (static pools)? Should CMBS
have been tarred with the same brush?
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Is
this the time to deal with the perceived
inflexibility of CMBS loans? Are CMBS servicers
better now at assumptions and defeasance requests?
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What alternatives are available in this market for
large loan amounts that are not syndicated?
Moderator:
David Miller, President,
Canadian
Mortgage Rating Service Ltd.
Panel:
Derek Astley, Managing Director,
Securitization Trading, TD Securities
Norm Camiré, Director, Commercial Mortgage
Securitization,
RBC Capital Markets
Brad Hauger, Senior Vice President, Midland Loan
Services, Inc.
Paul Scholz, Director, Origination & Credit -
Canada,
Merrill Lynch Mortgage Lending
Tim Westlake, Senior Vice President, DBRS Limited
Session B2
PRIVATE EQUITY AND OPPORTUNITY FUNDS: WHAT ARE THEY
LOOKING FOR NOW?

A panel of senior executives managing private equity and
opportunity funds will discuss their mandates and
priorities for 2008 after hitting a perceived peak in
the mid summer of 2007.
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What impact has the tightening of credit markets had
on their activities? What are the major differences
between what they were doing prior to mid 2007 and
now since the credit crunch has emerged?
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Is
there still money looking for a home in this market?
Are opportunity funds currently flush with cash?
What are their underlying strategies for the
deployment of these funds? Have buying opportunities
increased as a result of the credit challenges in
the market? Will the money continue to be available
if returns get meager or borrowing costs too high?
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What will be their priorities for 2008 by product
type and market across Canada? What are their
strategies post-subprime meltdown with respect to
the Canadian market? What are your strategies post-subprime
meltdown with respect to the Canadian market?
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Has
commercial real estate lost any of its edge relative
to other investment alternatives?
Moderator:
John O’Bryan, Managing Director, TD
Securities Realty Group Inc.
Panel:
Peter Aghar, Chief Investment Officer, KingSett
Capital Inc.
David Arthur, President & CEO, Brookfield Real
Estate Opportunity Fund
Bill Jandrisits, Director of
Finance, Starwood Capital Group
Katherine Lee, Managing Director, GE Real Estate
Session B3
IMPLEMENTING FAIR VALUE ACCOUNTING IN CANADA: ARE
LENDERS, ANALYSTS AND CREDIT RATING AGENCIES READY?

By 2011, Canada will move to the same accounting
standards that are being used by publicly accountable
enterprises in the EU and many other countries around
the world. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)
are being promoted as a single set of high quality,
understandable and enforceable global standards. The
transition process in Canada anticipates required
disclosures in 2008 and 2009 in preparation for the
January 1, 2011 changeover to IFRS.
With the expectation that Canadian large borrowers will be
subject to International GAAP in the next few years,
many firms are working hard to understand the
implications and develop models to follow. However, it
is not clear at all that the same level of investigation
has been undertaken in the lender, analyst and credit
rating communities. This panel will explore IFRS fair
value accounting: what it means; how it looks; what the
impacts will be for balance sheets and recourse loans;
and what the potential impacts and implications are for
analysts, lenders and credit rating agencies.
Moderator:
Teresa Neto, Vice President,
Financial Reporting,
Real Property Association of
Canada
Panel:
Paule Bouchard, Partner,
Professional Practice & Risk Management
Consulting
Group, RSM Richter LLP
Christian Green, Associate
Director, Structured Finance Ratings,
Standard and Poor's
Karine MacIndoe, Director, Real Estate/REITs &
Hospitality Research,
BMO Capital Markets
Jamie Miles, Vice
President Finance & CFO, Homburg Invest Inc.
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12:55 p.m. |
LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS |
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INFORMAL LUNCHEON |
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2:10
p.m. |
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select
C1, C2
or C3) |
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Session C1
MEZZANINE AND HIGH RATIO
FINANCING: WHO IS STILL IN THIS MARKET AND WHAT ARE THEY
LOOKING FOR?

Mezzanine and high ratio financing continue to high
demand elements in real estate financing today. What has
happened to availability of this product type and other
non-traditional sources of real estate capital in the
current market? The following questions will be
addressed:
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How
is this type of financing being priced in 2008?
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Are
all the previous major sources of mezzanine
financing still active?
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What kind of appetite do they have for investments
for the next 24 months? What are their underwriting
criteria and lending strategies at this time with
respect to the Canadian market? What will their
priorities be in 2008 and 2009 by product type and
market across the country?
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Have any new financing vehicles entered into this
market? Are any more innovative products emerging?
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What are the risks of interim lending in this
market? How do you minimize and manage your risks?
What takeout sources are readily available under the
current conditions?
Moderator:
Don Matthews, President, Matthews
Asset Management Inc.
Panel:
David Berman,
President & CEO, Tricon Capital Group Inc.
Michael Carragher, Vice President,
Mortgage Investments,
Firm Capital Corporation
Scott Coates, Vice President, Real
Estate Finance, KingSett Capital Inc.
Sam Reisman, Chairman & CEO, The Rose Corporation
Session C2
|TURBULENT WATERS IN THE CAPITAL
MARKETS: WILL THEY REMAIN FLAT OR ARE THEY RESUMING
GROWTH?

By all accounts, 2007 was a poor year in relative terms
for North American REITs and publicly securitized real
estate. This session will open with a brief review of
the factors affecting the performance of these
equities. However, one of the apparent casualties of
the credit crunch is the demise of the highly leveraged
buyout. Has the threat of being taken private by
private equity subsided or is it still there? Are
pension funds still prowling? What does the future now
hold for REITs and securitized real estate? How have
they responded in early 2008? Can some upward momentum
be potentially resumed? What will be the drivers of a
new surge in growth? Can Canada’s REITs and REOCs get
more traction internationally?
Moderator:
Stephen Sender, Managing Director,
Industry Head,
Scotia Capital Inc.
Panel:
Kevin Leon,
Managing Director,
CIBC World Markets
Sandy McIntyre, Senior Vice
President & Senior Portfolio Manager,
Sentry Select Capital Corporation
Michael Smith, Senior Vice President,
Real Estate & Hospitality Analyst,
National Bank Financial
Inc.
Jim Tadeson, CEO, InStorage REIT
Session C3
THE VIEW OF THE INTERMEDIARIES ON SOURCES OF CAPITAL AND
CREDIT IN TODAY’S MARKET

A wide-ranging panel discussion with commercial real
estate intermediaries and mortgage brokers examining the
trends, issues and challenges of sourcing credit and
capital in the tightening Canadian market. They will
provide insights and perspectives on what borrowers need
to be aware of in the current lending environment. Some
of the questions that they will discuss include:
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How
has the debt market evolved in the past 12 months
from the broker’s perspective? What has happened
with spreads?
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What sources of capital have disappeared? Who, if
anyone, is filling the void?
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How
important are lender/borrower relationships
especially in the current situation?
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How
do the strategies of pension funds, insurance
companies and other institutions vary with private
sources of debt capital? How have their underwriting
standards changed? Has their lending biase increased
towards particular property classes and geographic
locations?
What
advice can brokers offer borrowers on mezzanine
financing and other non-traditional forms of financing?
Moderator:
Paul Braun, Managing Director, CanFirst Capital
Management
Panel:
Randy Buckley, Vice President &
Director,
Murray & Company
Steve McEwen, Principal, Montrose
Mortgage Corporation Limited
Kevin Schledewitz, Vice President,
BMO Capital Markets Real Estate Group
Terry Whalen, Managing Director,
Capital Markets, CB Richard Ellis Limited
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3:10
p.m. |
AFTERNOON
REFRESHMENTS |
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3:20
p.m. |
CLOSING
ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION ON DEBT & EQUITY MARKET ACTIVITY
FOR 2008 AND BEYOND: THE LAST WORD |
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A
discussion with senior real estate and institutional
executives on their perspective of Canadian real estate
fundamentals, trends, opportunities and strategies for
2008, their insights on the impact of the credit crunch
on the market, and their strategies going forward.
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What will be the overall impact of tighter credit
markets on cap rates and real estate values across
Canada?
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What opportunities have emerged in the market due to
the current lending restrictions? Are real estate
fundamentals in Canada still very strong?
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What kinds of transactions will offer the best
possible returns in 2008? Do you anticipate any
increase in buying opportunities?
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Do
you expect any possible improvements and softening
of the credit and capital markets in the pricing of
risk over the next twelve months? What will be the
key determinants of such a change?
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To
what extent has the use of leverage now disappeared
in this market? Does the same hold for private
equity buyout opportunities?
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How
has the credit situation affected your business?
What, if anything, are you doing differently now as
a result of these factors?
Moderators:
Andrew Phillips, Managing Director, Investment
Banking, TD Securities Inc.
Karen Weaver, CFO, First Capital Realty Inc.
Panel:
Amy Erixon, CEO, IG
Realty Investments, Inc.
Paul Finkbeiner,
President, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
Kelly Marshall, Senior Vice President, Corporate
Finance,
Brookfield Asset Management
Doug McGregor, Co-President, RBC Capital Markets;
Executive Vice
President, Royal Bank of Canada Financial Group
Stephen Suske, Vice Chair & Co-CEO, Chartwell
Seniors Housing REIT
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4:20
p.m. |
ADJOURNMENT |
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© 2008
York
Communications
/ MMPI Canada,
all
rights
reserved. |
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