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All delegates to RealCapital will automatically be registered to attend the
CB Richard Ellis Market Update presentations.

7:00 a.m.

Registration Opens
Breakfast Begins
 

 7:30 a.m.

The Outlook for the Economy for 2008 and Beyond
An insightful examination of key trends in the North American economy with a specific view towards their future direction over the short and medium terms, including the outlook for the Canadian dollar, interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, and bond yields. Will the U.S. economy be more sluggish in 2008 or will it level off and start to recover? What will be the implications for Canada?  How much more of an impact can be expected from the sub-prime market and commercial paper fallout?

Dr. Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank 

The Canadian Political Outlook:  Now what?
A discussion on how the federal and provincial political landscapes are evolving, when a federal election will likely take place and the outcome, what will happen to the Tories in Ontario, and what impact these trends may have for Canadian real estate lenders, investors and corporations.


Andrew Coyne, National Editor, Macleans Magazine

The Outlook for Commercial Real Estate Across Canada
An overview of key commercial real estate leasing and investment trends across Canada in the office, industrial, retail, and multi-residential sectors. Predictions for 2008 and 2009 will also be presented. Implications of the tightening credit markets on cap rates and transaction activity will also be discussed.


Blake Hutcheson, Chairman & President, CB Richard Ellis Limited

 9:00 a.m.

CB Richard Ellis Market Update Concludes

 
9:30 a.m.

REPRICING RISK AFTER THE CREDIT CRUNCH: WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS ON CAPITAL FLOWS, DEBT FINANCING AND REAL ESTATE EQUITY INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN CANADA?

 

 

 

 

 


The panel will examine and provide an overview of the impacts of the credit crunch, the U.S. subprime loan losses, and the ABCP debacle on the availability and price of capital for debt and equity for Canadian real estate transactions. Among the questions that will be addressed:

  • Deal flow in 2008 – What is it going to be like in Canada this year and what will this mean to people in the commercial and investment real estate market?
  • What have been the major impacts on the debt and equity markets?
  • What has happened to the re-pricing of risk, underwriting standards, and how has the debt market re-segmented itself?
  • What has happened to the unsecured debt market?
  • Is there still a “wall of capital” on the equity side or has it moved on? Who is left? Will they need to be as aggressive? How will REITs compete?
  • How are leveraged buyers faring in the market opposite all cash buyers? To what extent have cap rates moved up? Who has the lowest cost of capital now?
  • What are the opportunities in this market? Who will be the winners and who will be the losers?


Moderators:

Andrew Phillips, Managing Director, Investment Banking, TD Securities Inc.

Karen Weaver, CFO, First Capital Realty Inc.

 

Panel:
Colleen Campbell,
Executive Managing Director & Head of Canadian Debt
   Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets

David Dulberg, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group

Merrie Frankel, Vice President & Senior Credit Officer, Real Estate Finance,
   Moody’s Investors Service

Dr. Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank

Moray Tawse, Vice President, Mortgage Investments,
   First National Financial LP

 

10:30 a.m. MORNING REFRESHMENTS

10:55 a.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select A1, A2 or A3)
 

Session A1
THE NEW UNDERWRITING STANDARDS:  LENDERS’ ROUNDTABLE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE DEBT MARKET FOR 2008 AND BEYOND

 

A wide-ranging panel discussion will examine how underwriting practices and activities are changing in today’s capital environment from the perspective of the major conventional lenders: banks, pension funds, insurance companies and financial services. Some of the questions that will be examined:

  • Are conventional lenders’ programs adjusting to fill the $4B void created by the virtual disappearance of the CMBS market?
  • How is risk now being priced? What has happened to the widening of loan spreads? How are lenders assessing a deal and pricing it in today’s market?
  • How much money is available for commercial mortgages in 2008 compared to prior years and from what major sources?
  • What are the challenges with pricing loans in the current environment and how have portfolio lenders reacted?
  • What asset types are lenders avoiding, reducing exposure to, or increasing pricing for? Are smaller communities and other geographic areas a tougher sell?
  • What has happened to “relationship” borrowing through the second half of 2007 and early 2008?

 

Moderator:

Robert Goodall, President, Canadian Mortgage Capital Corporation

 

Panel:

Sheldon Esbin, President, Romspen Investment Corporation

Ron Findley, Assistant Vice President & Regional Director, The Great-West
   Life Assurance Company

Nigel Howard, Vice President, Commercial Mortgages & Specialized Lending,

   CIBC Commercial Mortgages Inc.

Andrew Huntley, Head, Mortgage Investments
   Alberta Investment Management Corp.

Paul Stone, Regional Director, Canadian Real Estate Investments,
MetLife


Session A2

GLOBAL CAPITAL & LENDING TRENDS: WILL TERMINATION OF THE WITHHOLDING TAX ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN ACTIVITY IN CANADA?

 

 

 

 

 

The elimination of the 25% withholding tax on interest on certain cross-border loans is expected to come into effect as early as March 1, 2008. What will be the implications of this new policy on U.S. and other foreign sources of commercial real estate financing? Could this lead to an increase in cross border activity and more U.S. lenders moving into Canada? If so, what kind of underwriting could Canadian real estate owners expect to see from U.S. sources entering our market? This session will explore what could be one source of major new credit providers that could replace some of the gap created in Canada with the considerable winding down of CMBS activity. Among the questions that will be discussed:
 

  • What are you seeing now in capital and financial markets outside of Canada?  Is there the same kind of compression in Europe as there is in Canada?
  • Is money expected to continue to leave the real estate sector in the U.S. or are markets starting to rebound?
  • What has happened to real estate pricing globally? How has risk been repriced?
  • How are these trends affecting the Canadian market? What is happening abroad that may come to Canada?

Moderator:
Doug Podd,
Partner, Brookfield Financial

Panel:

Tim Kenny, Managing Director, Babson Capital Management LLC
Dietmar Klein, Managing Director,
   Real Estate Lending North America,
   DekaBank (Frankfurt, Germany)
Scott Schaevitz, Managing Director, Global Real Estate Group,
   Lehman Brothers

Daniel Simunac, Head of Real Estate Finance, Canada,
   Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c.


Session A3
FINANCING CONSTRUCTION & DEVELOPMENT IN TODAY’S MARKET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While development and construction activity continues to be strong in most real estate asset types (office, industrial, retail, hotel) and the housing market (condominiums, subdivisions), what has happened to financing activity since the subprime meltdown of 2007? Is construction financing still readily available or have tightened underwriting standards made financing more difficult? Among the other questions that will be discussed:
 

  • How tight is the market for construction financing? Where are spreads heading? How much of an impact will this have on the price of capital and cost push?
  • What is the outlook for trends in construction costs over the next 24 months?  How will this affect mortgage capital decisions?
  • What are the major sources of debt financing and equity investment for construction and development for 2008? Will more equity be required?
  • How do sources and pricing vary between build-to-suits, development for your own account, and sale leasebacks?
     

Case studies of construction financing and long-term financing will also be presented.

 

Moderator:

Hayden Solomons, Partner, Aird & Berlis LLP

 

Panel:

Carmin Di Fiore, Senior Vice President, Commercial Real Estate Banking,
   Bank of America

Bruno Iacovetta, Managing Director, Real Estate Group,
   MCAP Financial Corporation

Michael Lombard, Vice President and Regional Manager,
  
Peoples Trust Company
Alan Winer, President, Harbour Mortgage Corporation

 

11:55 a.m.

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select B1, B2 or B3)

 

Session B1
CMBS AND MORTGAGE LOAN SECURITIZATION IN CANADA: WILL THEY SURVIVE?

 

 

 

 

This session will assess the current state of what was a $4B CMBS market in Canada after the severe disruptions in 2007. Have buyers of CMBS product re-materialized? Is it likely to rebound to any degree in 2008? Other issues explored will include:

  • How has the subprime mess thinned out CMBS activity? Who is left and still committed to the market in Canada?

  • Will traditional relationship-based banking eat into CMBS volumes?  

  • What are the major differences between CDO (managed pools) and ABCP vs. CMBS (static pools)? Should CMBS have been tarred with the same brush?

  • Is this the time to deal with the perceived inflexibility of CMBS loans? Are CMBS servicers better now at assumptions and defeasance requests?

  • What alternatives are available in this market for large loan amounts that are not syndicated?

 

Moderator:

David Miller, President,
   Canadian Mortgage Rating Service Ltd.

 

Panel:

Derek Astley, Managing Director, Securitization Trading, TD Securities

Norm Camiré, Director, Commercial Mortgage Securitization,
   RBC Capital Markets

Brad Hauger, Senior Vice President, Midland Loan Services, Inc.

Paul Scholz, Director, Origination & Credit - Canada,
   Merrill Lynch Mortgage Lending

Tim Westlake, Senior Vice President, DBRS Limited


Session B2

PRIVATE EQUITY AND OPPORTUNITY FUNDS: WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR NOW?
 

 

 

 

 

A panel of senior executives managing private equity and opportunity funds will discuss their mandates and priorities for 2008 after hitting a perceived peak in the mid summer of 2007.
 

  • What impact has the tightening of credit markets had on their activities? What are the major differences between what they were doing prior to mid 2007 and now since the credit crunch has emerged?
  • Is there still money looking for a home in this market? Are opportunity funds currently flush with cash? What are their underlying strategies for the deployment of these funds? Have buying opportunities increased as a result of the credit challenges in the market? Will the money continue to be available if returns get meager or borrowing costs too high?
  • What will be their priorities for 2008 by product type and market across Canada? What are their strategies post-subprime meltdown with respect to the Canadian market? What are your strategies post-subprime meltdown with respect to the Canadian market?
  • Has commercial real estate lost any of its edge relative to other investment alternatives?


Moderator:

John O’Bryan, Managing Director, TD Securities Realty Group Inc.

 

Panel:
Peter Aghar
, Chief Investment Officer, KingSett Capital Inc.
David Arthur, President & CEO, Brookfield Real Estate Opportunity Fund

Bill Jandrisits, Director of Finance, Starwood Capital Group

Katherine Lee, Managing Director, GE Real Estate

Session B3
IMPLEMENTING FAIR VALUE ACCOUNTING IN CANADA: ARE LENDERS, ANALYSTS AND CREDIT RATING AGENCIES READY?

By 2011, Canada will move to the same accounting standards that are being used by publicly accountable enterprises in the EU and many other countries around the world. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are being promoted as a single set of high quality, understandable and enforceable global standards. The transition process in Canada anticipates required disclosures in 2008 and 2009 in preparation for the January 1, 2011 changeover to IFRS.

With the expectation that Canadian large borrowers will be subject to International GAAP in the next few years, many firms are working hard to understand the implications and develop models to follow. However, it is not clear at all that the same level of investigation has been undertaken in the lender, analyst and credit rating communities. This panel will explore IFRS fair value accounting: what it means; how it looks; what the impacts will be for balance sheets and recourse loans; and what the potential impacts and implications are for analysts, lenders and credit rating agencies.

Moderator:

Teresa Neto, Vice President, Financial Reporting,

   Real Property Association of Canada

 

Panel:

Paule Bouchard, Partner, Professional Practice & Risk Management  
   Consulting Group, RSM Richter LLP

Christian Green, Associate Director, Structured Finance Ratings,
   Standard and Poor's
Karine MacIndoe, Director, Real Estate/REITs & Hospitality Research,
   BMO Capital Markets

Jamie Miles, Vice President Finance & CFO, Homburg Invest Inc.
 

12:55 p.m. LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS

 

 

 

 

INFORMAL LUNCHEON




 
2:10 p.m. CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select C1, C2 or C3)
 

Session C1

MEZZANINE AND HIGH RATIO FINANCING: WHO IS STILL IN THIS MARKET AND WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mezzanine and high ratio financing continue to high demand elements in real estate financing today. What has happened to availability of this product type and other non-traditional sources of real estate capital in the current market? The following questions will be addressed:
 

  • How is this type of financing being priced in 2008?
  • Are all the previous major sources of mezzanine financing still active? 
  • What kind of appetite do they have for investments for the next 24 months? What are their underwriting criteria and lending strategies at this time with respect to the Canadian market? What will their priorities be in 2008 and 2009 by product type and market across the country?
  • Have any new financing vehicles entered into this market? Are any more innovative products emerging? 
  • What are the risks of interim lending in this market? How do you minimize and manage your risks? What takeout sources are readily available under the current conditions? 

 

Moderator:

Don Matthews, President, Matthews Asset Management Inc.

 

Panel:
David Berman, President & CEO, Tricon Capital Group Inc.

Michael Carragher, Vice President, Mortgage Investments,
   Firm Capital Corporation

Scott Coates, Vice President, Real Estate Finance, KingSett Capital Inc.
Sam Reisman, Chairman & CEO, The Rose Corporation


Session C2

|TURBULENT WATERS IN THE CAPITAL MARKETS: WILL THEY REMAIN FLAT OR ARE THEY RESUMING GROWTH?

 

 

 

 

 

 

By all accounts, 2007 was a poor year in relative terms for North American REITs and publicly securitized real estate. This session will open with a brief review of the factors affecting the performance of these equities.  However, one of the apparent casualties of the credit crunch is the demise of the highly leveraged buyout.  Has the threat of being taken private by private equity subsided or is it still there? Are pension funds still prowling? What does the future now hold for REITs and securitized real estate? How have they responded in early 2008? Can some upward momentum be potentially resumed? What will be the drivers of a new surge in growth? Can Canada’s REITs and REOCs get more traction internationally?
 

Moderator:

Stephen Sender, Managing Director, Industry Head, Scotia Capital Inc.

 

Panel:
Kevin Leon,
Managing Director, CIBC World  Markets

Sandy McIntyre, Senior Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager,
   Sentry Select Capital Corporation

Michael Smith, Senior Vice President, Real Estate & Hospitality Analyst,
   National Bank Financial Inc.                                                     

Jim Tadeson, CEO, InStorage REIT

 

Session C3
THE VIEW OF THE INTERMEDIARIES ON SOURCES OF CAPITAL AND CREDIT IN TODAY’S MARKET

 

 

 

 

A wide-ranging panel discussion with commercial real estate intermediaries and mortgage brokers examining the trends, issues and challenges of sourcing credit and capital in the tightening Canadian market. They will provide insights and perspectives on what borrowers need to be aware of in the current lending environment. Some of the questions that they will discuss include:
 

  • How has the debt market evolved in the past 12 months from the broker’s perspective? What has happened with spreads? 
  • What sources of capital have disappeared? Who, if anyone, is filling the void?
  • How important are lender/borrower relationships especially in the current situation?
  • How do the strategies of pension funds, insurance companies and other institutions vary with private sources of debt capital? How have their underwriting standards changed? Has their lending biase increased towards particular property classes and geographic locations?
     
What advice can brokers offer borrowers on mezzanine financing and other non-traditional forms of financing?

Moderator:
Paul Braun, Managing Director, CanFirst Capital Management                       

Panel:

Randy Buckley, Vice President & Director, Murray & Company

Steve McEwen, Principal, Montrose Mortgage Corporation Limited

Kevin Schledewitz, Vice President, BMO Capital Markets Real Estate Group

Terry Whalen, Managing Director, Capital Markets, CB Richard Ellis Limited
 

3:10 p.m. AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS
 

 
3:20 p.m. CLOSING ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION ON DEBT & EQUITY MARKET ACTIVITY FOR 2008 AND BEYOND: THE LAST WORD
 


A discussion with senior real estate and institutional executives on their perspective of Canadian real estate fundamentals, trends, opportunities and strategies for 2008, their insights on the impact of the credit crunch on the market, and their strategies going forward. 

  • What will be the overall impact of tighter credit markets on cap rates and real estate values across Canada? 
  • What opportunities have emerged in the market due to the current lending restrictions? Are real estate fundamentals in Canada still very strong?
  • What kinds of transactions will offer the best possible returns in 2008? Do you anticipate any increase in buying opportunities? 
  • Do you expect any possible improvements and softening of the credit and capital markets in the pricing of risk over the next twelve months? What will be the key determinants of such a change?
  • To what extent has the use of leverage now disappeared in this market? Does the same hold for private equity buyout opportunities?
  • How has the credit situation affected your business? What, if anything, are you doing differently now as a result of these factors?


Moderators:

Andrew Phillips, Managing Director, Investment Banking, TD Securities Inc.
Karen Weaver, CFO, First Capital Realty Inc.

 

Panel:

Amy Erixon, CEO, IG Realty Investments, Inc.
Paul Finkbeiner,
President, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
Kelly Marshall, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance,
   Brookfield Asset Management

Doug McGregor, Co-President, RBC Capital Markets; Executive Vice  
   President, Royal Bank of Canada Financial Group
Stephen Suske, Vice Chair & Co-CEO, Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT

 

4:20 p.m. ADJOURNMENT

 

 


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