RealREIT - Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - Metro Toronto Convention Centre - Finding the Light at the End of the Tunner


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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

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7:15 am REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST
 
8:00 am WELCOME & OPENING REMARKS
  Conference Co-Chairmen:
Neil Downey, Managing Director & Real Estate Analyst,
   RBC Capital Markets
Simon Nyilassy, President & CEO, Calloway REIT


 
8:05 am OVERVIEW PRESENTATIONS
  GLOBAL REIT & REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS: WHAT GOES DOWN MUST COME UP
  A brief quantitative examination of how public real estate companies and major property markets have performed over the past year. Who is up, who is down, how much, and why? The presentation will be provided by the managers of the EPRA NAREIT FTSE Global Indices.

Fraser Hughes, Research Director,
   European Public Real Estate Association


 
HOW IS CANADIAN SECURITIZED REAL ESTATE PERFORMING?
  A comparative look at the key trends among the REITs and REOCs in Canada, and how they are performing compared with Australia, the United States and other advanced securitized markets.

William Wong, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group

 
8:40 am THE GLOBAL PANEL: REIT ISSUES AND PROSPECTS AROUND THE WORLD
 
A qualitative review of global property and REIT markets, by a panel of industry association leaders. What are the local pressures on the REIT structure? How are governments responding to debt scarcity and illiquidity? Have they been successful? Have underlying property markets turned? Which countries are contemplating a new REIT vehicle? What are the issues facing this global vehicle moving forward? How has the buy side responded? What structural REIT changes are afoot? How significant has been the de-levering and right-sizing of balance sheets?

Moderator:
Michael Brooks, CEO, Real Property Association of Canada

Panel:
Philip Charls, CEO, European Public Real Estate Association
Tatsuo Ichii, Secretary General,
   The Association for Real Estate Securitization (Japan)
Liz Peace, Chief Executive Officer, British Property Federation
Steven Wechsler, President & CEO,
   National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts


 
9:50 am REFRESHMENTS
10:15 am CANADIAN MARKET FUNDAMENTALS AND PROPERTY VALUES: WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?
  An overview presentation providing some insights on the principal fundamentals of the Canadian real estate market and how property values have faired in 2009. Among the questions that will be addressed:
  • What have been the key transactions in office, retail, industrial, apartment, seniors and hotel properties to this point in time in 2009?
  • Given the significant falloff in investment activity, how do you determine what the cap rates and NAVs are in this market?
  • How strong is the leasing market?
  • What is the outlook for the Canadian market and the cycle for 2010? Are there regional differences?

Sandy McNair, President, Altus InSite
Colin Johnston, Executive Vice President,
Research, Valuation & Advisory, Altus Group

 

10:45 am WHO ARE THE INVESTORS NOW AND WHAT ARE THEIR EXPECTATIONS? IMPROVED BALANCE SHEETS? LOWER PAY-OUT RATIOS? NONE OF THE ABOVE?
  North American interest rates appear to have bottomed out as fears of inflation start as a result of accelerating energy and commodity prices, and record high government debt. Housing markets across Canada appear to have leveled off. Notwithstanding an uptrend since March, volatility continues in the equity markets. And the cost of capital has changed with the repricing of risk. Against this backdrop, how are REITs and REOCs performing? What is the case for investing in securitized real estate at this time?
  • Is the investor base for REIT's and REOCs changing or not?
  • What are the expectations of the investor base? Are they focused on income or total return?
  • Investors appear to be rewarding REITs with conservative balance sheets and low pay-out ratios. Do institutional investors agree with this strategy?
  • If a REIT currently trading at a low multiple were to cuts its distributions and take steps to improve its balance sheet, would investors reward or punish this initiative?
  • How do REITs and REOCs stack up against other investment options? How will they compete for capital against other asset classes?
  • Is it better to buy single assets in this market or to own real estate securities?
  • How do investors deal with the confusing market metrics associated with real estate assets? Will IFRS make valuation easier or harder?
  • To what extent will confusion grow under SIFT and other changing tax and valuation rules?

Moderator:
Stephen Sender, Managing Director & Industry Head, Real Estate,
   Scotia Capital Markets Inc.

Panel:
Frédéric Blondeau, Vice President & CIO, Presima Inc.
Kevin Hall
, Senior Portfolio Manager, Canadian Equity Investments
   Guardian Capital LP
Sandy McIntyre, Senior Vice President & CIO,
   Sentry Select Capital Corporation
Michael Smith, Managing Director, Real Estate,
   Macquarie Research Equities,Macquarie Securities Group
Stephen Taylor, President & COO, Morguard Investments Limited

 

11:45 am CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select A1 or A2)
SESSION A1
HOW MUCH LIQUIDITY HAS RETURNED TO THE PROPERTY MARKET?
WHAT ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES, RISKS AND RETURNS GOING FORWARD?
 
An insightful discussion on the issues related to investment activity in today’s market environment. The panel will address a range of questions including:
  • What are the challenges that REITs and REOCs are facing in buy or sell assets in this market?
  • What are the differences, if any, between the issues faced by a REIT vs. a REOC vs. a non-securitized real estate investor in acquiring properties?
  •  What information do they need in order to try to do a deal in this market?
  • How much leverage can they use in a transaction?
  • How does the structure of a REIT affect deal flow?
  • Private equity funds: what are they likely to be doing over the next twelve months?
  • What are the major lessons that have been learned so far from the credit crisis?
  • What advantages or disadvantages do REITs and REOCs face today compared to private buyers?

Moderator:
Gary Morassutti, Managing Director,
   RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group


Panel:
Ugo Bizzarri, CFO & Vice President, Acquisitions, Timbercreek Asset Management Inc. and Trustee, Timbercreek REIT
Jonathan Gitlin, Vice President, Investments, RioCan REIT
Adam Paul, Vice President, Investments, CREIT
Terry Whalen, CIO, Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT


 

SESSION A2
PURE PLAY VS. DIVERSIFIED PLAY? STRATEGIES TO GROW YOUR REIT OR REOC IN THIS MARKET
  All REITs and REOCs are not created equally. Some are considered to be “value creators” while others would be deemed to be “financial engineers”. Some are a “pure play” with a strong focus and competitive positioning while others are a “diversified play” operating in the deepest part of the stream and growing more rapidly. Some have a mandate to build a real estate investment vehicle, while others are creating development and operating platforms. This panel will discuss and debate some of the challenges, risks and rewards of some of these various strategic options. How is Alberta faring in the face of the soft natural gas prices and the overbuilt housing and office markets? How will the stresses of the manufacturing sector ripple through REITs and REOCs? How have the retail and industrial markets fared in the current economy? Should REITs and REOCs be more diversified in order to grow in this market?

Moderator:
David Ehrlich, Partner, Stikeman Elliott LLP

Panel:
Louis Forbes, CFO, Primaris Retail REIT
Philip Fraser, President & CEO, Killam Properties Inc.
Kenny Gibson, President & CEO, InnVest REIT
Gareth MacRae, Associate, Real Estate / REITs, BMO Capital Markets
Armin Martens, President & CEO, Artis REIT


 

12:45 pm INFORMAL LUNCHEON

 
LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS
1:40 pm ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR 2010: HOW CLOSE IS THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL?
  An insightful examination of key trends in the North American economy with a specific view towards their future direction over the short and medium terms, including the outlook for GDP growth, interest rates, energy and commodity prices, the value of the Canadian dollar, and the rate of inflation. How will the recovery materialize over the next twelve months? What impact will weak manufacturing conditions have on employment growth? What will be the key indicators that we will be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel?
Using a wireless survey, the audience will be polled for their predictions prior to the presentation. You will have an opportunity to compare your thinking with the expert’s views.

Patricia Croft, Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management

 
2:15 pm CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select B1 or B2)
  SESSION B1
BEST PRACTICES VS. EASY PRACTICES: WHAT ARE THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GAAP AND IFRS? WHAT ARE THE MOST EFFECTIVE PERFORMANCE METRICS?
  The year 2011 has a double meaning to REITs as the deadline for SIFT rule compliance as well as the date for Canadian transition to the same accounting standards that are being used by publicly accountable enterprises in the EU and many other countries around the world. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are being promoted as a single set of high quality, understandable and enforceable global standards.
This panel discussion on "best practices vs. easy practices" will begin by examining the major differences between current GAAP rules and IFRS, and what investors should or could expect in the future. Consider the current differences between United States which looks exclusively at U.S. GAAP reporting entities, while European, Asian and Australian teams and investors look at IFRS. Is disclosure better under IFRS? What are the different metrics used elsewhere? What will be significantly different for a Canadian REIT in an IFRS world?

Moderator:
Tom Rothfischer, Partner, KPMG LLP

Panel:
Paul Miatello, CFO, Morguard Corporation
James Miles
, Vice President, Finance & CFO, Homburg Invest Inc.
Dennis Mitchell, Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corporation

Shant Poladian, Real Estate/REIT Analyst, Canaccord Adams
 
  SESSION B2
FINANCING STRATEGIES: HOW REITS AND REOCS ARE FACILITATING DEAL FLOW AND CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS IN A TOUGH MARKET?
  According to a recent study, Canadian REITs and REOCs continue to have good access to conventional mortgages and a select few have had encouraging access to the unsecured debenture market despite tightening credit markets and challenging economic conditions. DBRS attributes this access to the debt markets on the relativity strong and solvent Canadian banking system, which has filled some of the void left by pension funds, insurance companies and foreign institutional lenders. Most REITs and REOCs are also well capitalized, have balanced debt maturity profiles and generally have high-quality assets, which are easier to refinance.
To what extent are the results of this study correct? How are REITs and REOCs allocating their capital? How are they financing their activities? How much has the repricing of risk affected the cost and supply of debt financing? What are appropriate levels of debt for REITs? What is the challenge of refinancing maturing debt in this market? Is the nature of a REIT’s debt key to its success? Are declining payout ratios a good thing or not? What is the ability of a public real estate company to issue new equity? What are the challenges of non-accretive deals and the impact of SIFT rules on financing? Since the cost of capital has clearly increased, should REITs bring down their distribution pay-out ratio to a more conservative level? What are some examples of creative financing that REITs and RECOs have used to raise capital in this market?

Moderator:
Sam Damiani, Vice President & Director,
   Real Estate & Lodging Equity Research, TD Newcrest


Panel:
Mario Barrafato, Senior Vice President & CFO, Dundee REIT
Ciro DeCiantis, Partner, Deloitte & Touche LLP
Paul Holman, Managing Director, Real Estate, DBRS Limited
Pat Koval, Partner, Torys LLP
Darren Latoski, President, Sunstone Realty Advisors


 
3:10 pm AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS
3:15 pm THINKING STRATEGICALLY: HOW ARE REITS AND REOCS GROWING IN THE CURRENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT? WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?
 
An insightful examination of challenges, trends and issues facing Canadian REITs and REOCs, and how senior executives are responding in this rather unpredictable and occasionally turbulent environment.
  • What have been the most important lessons that have been learned by CEOs so far from the credit crisis?
  • Short term thinking vs. long term strategy: what are your plans for playing offense in a down market? What are the opportunities and options? How are you executing your plan?
  • What makes a good public real estate company? Should it be doing development? Should it be pursuing leveraged partnerships? What is the right Balance Sheet structure for a REIT or REOC going forward?
  • What does the future hold for REITS that are non-compliant with SIFT? Will any more REITs have to restructure their entities going forward?
  • What impact will IFRS have on how Canadian REITs and REOCs will be viewed?
  • What human resource issues are arising out of the current economic environment?
  • Is it likely that M&A activity will occur in the real estate sector in 2010, either because the strong will take over the weak or because of privatizations of even the strong?
  • Where are we going to be in 18 to 24 months? Will discounts to underlying value persist or is it even real? Have market conditions affected people strategies?

Moderator:
Simon Nyilassy, President & CEO, Calloway REIT

Panel:
Scott Crowe, Senior Vice President and Global Strategist/Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Securities, Cohen & Steers Inc.
Neil Downey, Managing Director & Real Estate Analyst,
   RBC Capital Markets
Michael Emory, President & CEO, Allied Properties REIT
Roberto Geremia, President, Boardwalk REIT
Dori Segal, President & CEO, First Capital Realty Inc.
and Executive Chairman, Gazit-Globe Ltd.


 

4:15 pm ADJOURNMENT
 
MMPI Canada