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Introduction:
Alan Colquhoun, CEO, DTZ Barnicke Limited

Keynote Speaker:
C.Y. Leung, Convenor of the Executive Council, Hong Kong SAR
   and Chairman, DTZ Asia

 

WILL THE CANADIAN ECONOMY BE STRONGER THAN YOU THINK IN 2010? YOU WILL BE SURPRISED AT THE ANSWER




Introduction:
Andrew Phillips, Managing Director and Team Head, Real Estate Group, TD Securities Inc.

Keynote Speaker:
Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Financial

 

SESSION B1

OFFICE MARKETS ACROSS CANADA: HOW ARE WE GOING TO FILL OUR NEW & EXISTING BUILDINGS AND KEEP THEM OCCUPIED?



With office vacancy rates climbing across the country and new supply being added in virtually every market, we are approaching the highest vacancy levels in a number of years. Now that many corporations have trimmed staff and learned to do more with less, how long until employment ranks begin to absorb the vacancy? Where will the tenants come from to fill this space? How will the older office stock compete with new sustainable and green certified developments? What can we expect in major markets across the country and how do local forces impact the recovery? What markets will emerge from the doldrums first? How will the various classes of office product compete in the short to medium term on this road to recovery?

Moderator:
Pierre Bergevin, President & CEO, Canada, Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.

Panel:
Marc Doré, Managing Director, Office, SITQ
Michael Emory, President & CEO, Allied Properties REIT
Michael Harvey, Vice President & Managing Director, National Leasing,
   Oxford Properties Group Inc.
John Marotta, Senior Vice President, Western Region, Bentall LP
Sandy McNair, President, Altus InSite
 

SESSION B2

FROM THE BATTERED MANUFACTURING SECTOR TO THE DEATH OF DEVELOPMENT: HOW IS THE INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET RESPONDING TO THE CHALLENGES?



From the impact of a battered and bruised manufacturing sector to the economic slowdown, industrial real estate has been facing some challenges as it works its way through market conditions. This session will examine what the future holds for new industrial development. Canadian markets have been well served by adequate supply of state-of-the-art speculative industrial construction to meet tenant demand. The severity of the global capital market crisis coupled with an economic downturn appears to have eliminated the need for new industrial development in the foreseeable future. What major factors will contribute to the revitalization of this sector? Will occupants accept rental inflation by 20% to 30%? What other factors will come into play, e.g. land values, investor yields, construction costs, development charges? Who will be the early entries as the market fundamentals improve? The session will open with a brief update on the state of the automotive sector in Canada – a major bellwether of the manufacturing sector and industrial demand. Is the decline in auto production cyclical or structural?

Moderator:
Gord Cook, Executive Vice President, Colliers International

Speaker:
Dennis DesRosiers, President, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

Panel:
Andrew Hoffman, COO, Menkes Developments Ltd.
Steven Kros, Vice President, Development, Eastern Region,
   AMB Corporation
Lorne Kumer, Vice President, Real Estate, MI Developments Inc.
Kevin Pshebniski, President, Hopewell Developments Inc.

 

SESSION B3

WAITING FOR DISTRESSED ASSETS? NOT THE ENTREPRENEURS.
WHAT HAVE THEY BEEN DOING?



The hot investment topic of 2009 was the impending arrival of distressed opportunities and value investing. The former never came, but the latter is alive and well. As institutional investors sit on the sidelines and tend to maximizing existing portfolios, opportunistic and contrarian investors are filling the huge void. Who is investing across the country? Who is dominating the buying and selling sides? What are the key drivers of their investment thesis? What types of properties are most in demand? Where are the opportunities? Where are we in the real estate cycle? How do 2009 transaction volumes compare to 2008? What were some of the benchmark deals in 2009? What is the source of capital? Is debt available? How have investors dealt with changes in investment structures and underwriting standards? What is the outlook for 2010 in terms of cap rates and potential investment activity? What will be the key challenges facing investors in 2010 and what lessons have we learned? Our distinguished panel of experts is pleased to share its strategies to capitalize on the dislocation in real estate markets created by the global financial crisis.

Moderator:
Mark Rose, Chair & CEO, Avison Young Commercial Real Estate

Panel:
Donald Mathew, CIO & Executive Vice President, IGRI Inc.
Brian McCauley, President, Concert Properties Ltd.
Phil Milroy, President, Westcorp Inc.
George Schluessel, CEO & President,
   ProCura Real Estate Services Ltd.

 

SESSION B4

VALUATION – WHAT IS IT IN TODAY'S MARKET? WHAT IMPACT DO DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES HAVE ON ESTABLISHING ASSET VALUES?



Asset valuation is considerably more difficult for all investors, owners, potential buyers and all other practitioners in the current market. Clients are demanding and need more information and support for their real estate investment decision-making. The significant drop in transactions and dealflow has created added pressure for all parties to understand what truly is the market value at this particular point in time for any given asset – essential data for buyers, sellers, lenders, and investors. This session will examine the valuation issue and provide some insights on determining values in the current market and the year ahead. The many questions that will be examined include: what is valuation from a technical capital markets perspective; what information do various interests require from a valuation including management, purchasers, vendors, shareholders, auditors, lenders, etc; how does one determine value in today's market; what are the most significant differences by geography & asset class; where is valuation heading going forward, e.g. GAAP vs IFRS; and what else does a buyer, investor or seller need to understand.

Moderator:
Sheila Botting, Senior Managing Director, Capital Markets, Canada,
   Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.

Panel:
Peter Aghar, President & CIO, KingSett Capital
Liam Brunner, Managing Director, Western Canada,
   Valuation & Advisory Services, Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
Phil Gillin, Senior Managing Director and Head of Canadian Real Estate,
   Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada
Catherine Ann Marshall, Research and Investment Strategy Consultant,
   IGRI Inc.

Michael Smith, Managing Director, Real Estate,
   Macquarie Research Equities, Macquarie Capital Markets

 

SESSION B5

VALUES, CAPITAL AND THE ECONOMY: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN THE CANADIAN MARKET?



A panel of commercial brokers from across the country will provide an extensive discussion on current and emerging investment trends in major Canadian markets. The past year has seen a very significant reduction in deal flow and liquidity. What have been the major reasons for the decline in transaction activity? What will be required in order for a considerable increase in deal-making? To what extent will cap rates experience more upward pressure? While Class A properties are still holding there own, is there a growing weakness among non-trophy buildings? Who will be the most active buyers? Who will likely be the sellers? Which product types will be most favoured by investors? Which markets will be “top of mind”, and why? How do investor attitudes vary from institutional vs. private and domestic vs. offshore? What is the outlook for investment activity in 2010?

Moderator:
Michael Catford, Vice President, Real Estate Investments, HOOPP

Panel:
Leonard Abramsky, Managing Partner, Brookfield Financial
Avtar Bains, Executive Vice President, Colliers International Vancouver
Trevor Blakely, Managing Director,
   BMO Capital Markets Real Estate Group

Armand Des Rosiers, Managing Director,
   RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group
James Miller, Principal, Investments,
   Avison Young Commercial Real Estate

 

SESSIONC1

THE CHANGING NATURE OF SHOPPING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CURRENT AND FUTURE RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS



The session will open with a visually dynamic presentation that will clearly define the retail experience of the future, exposing the dynamics of a new world where consumers call the shots. From the big box to e-commerce to fast fashion to new luxury, the speaker will strip away old ideas about consumer behavior, shining a spotlight on the key trends retailers, developers and shopping centres need to grapple within the coming decade. A brief panel discussion will then follow on the issues, challenges and opportunities of the marketplace. Do consumers really want more of the same stores, products and brands? What formats and innovations are growing in popularity? Will open air centres remain the new normal? What does the future hold for regional centres whose ultimate demise is predicted by some pundits? What is in store for new retail formats? What lies ahead for retail market activity in Canada in 2010?

Moderator:
Tom Burns, Senior Vice President, Retail, DTZ Barnicke Limited

Keynote Speaker:
Anthony Stokan, Founding Partner, Anthony Russell Inc.
   and author of “Naked Consumption: Retail Trends Uncovered”


Panel:
Brad Jones, Vice President, Retail Leasing,
   Oxford Properties Group Inc.
Sylvie Lachance, Executive Vice President & COO,
   First Capital Realty Inc.
Jeff Ross, Senior Vice President, Leasing, RioCan REIT
 

SESSION C2

HAS THE APARTMENT MARKET OUT-PERFORMED ALL OTHER REAL ESTATE ASSET CLASSES? WILL IT CONTINUE TO DO SO?

            

Many may suggest that the staple of any well-diversified real estate portfolio today is still the multi-family market. Investor confidence in this sector continues to attract funds from a broad range of investors. CMHC mortgage insurance has had a significant ongoing impact on the cost and availability of debt capital for financing apartment properties. The predictable yields and strong cash flows continue to keep this sector as the one of the most reliable of all the real estate asset classes. Why does this continue to be the case? Are cap rates likely to decline in 2010 or will they remain at current levels? How much, if any, cap rate divergence is there between A, B, or C class of multi-family properties? What competition exists in the apartment sector? Is condominium market making an impact either by offering alternative rental units at very competitive rates or by converting renters into homeowners? How will the HST ultimately affect the industry? Are CMHC insured products still the most desired type of debt or are there other attractive alternatives?

Moderator:
Aik Aliferis, Principal, Primecorp Commercial Realty Inc,

Panel:
Dan Argiros, CEO, Conundrum Capital Corporation
Ugo Bizzarri, CFO & Vice President, Acquisitions,
   Timbercreek Asset Management Inc.

David Podmore, Chairman & CEO, Concert Properties Ltd.
Tyler Seaman, Vice President, Global Principal Investment,
   Oxford Properties Group Inc.
 

SESSION C3

MAXIMIZING NET ASSET VALUES: TOP TEN THINGS YOU CAN DO IN THIS MARKET



Changing markets conditions require a rethinking of investment strategies. Notwithstanding the sluggishness of the economy and its impact on real estate asset classes, there are opportunities to protect and build your asset value during these challenging times. This session will examine the importance of strategic planning, goal setting, and capital allocation in these market conditions. How do you differentiate your assets from what is more of a commodity market? What kind of leasing strategies might provide greater success in these times? Is it possible to create value from acquiring out-of-favour sites and properties and seeing something that no one else does? How important are personal and corporate values, communication and relationship building in this market? What are some of the significant elements of successful strategies, e.g. understanding your investment mandate, thorough research and underwriting, risk analysis, clear definition of exit strategy and liquidity, compliance with a risk/reward profile, and strong strategic communication with property management and leasing teams?

Moderator:
Stefan Ciotlos, President, CB Richard Ellis Limited

Panel:
Paul Braun, Managing Director, CanFirst Capital Management
Michael Cooper, Vice Chair & CEO, Dundee REIT
Glenn Featherstone, Vice President, Retail Leasing,
   Morguard Investments Limited
Wayne Jacobs, Executive Vice President, Allied Properties REIT
 

SESSION C4

FINANCING IN AN UNPREDICTABLE ENVIRONMENT: WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE DEBT MARKET IN 2010? WILL SPREADS GO ANY HIGHER? HOW HARD IS IT TO STILL FIND A SOURCE?



The credit crunch continued to escalate throughout this past year, having a strong impact on the pricing and the availability of debt. The CMBS market was gone, risk was significantly re-priced by the remaining lenders, underwriting standards and LTV requirements changed, and the debt market re-segmented itself. This lively Q & A session will include the perspectives of borrowers and lenders. Who will be the major providers of debt in Canada and what will they be looking for? How are lenders likely to assess a deal and price it? What strategies are borrowers taking to navigate the debt markets? What property classes are lenders avoiding, reducing exposure to, or increasing pricing for? How will the strategies of pension funds, major banks and other institutions vary from those of private sources of debt capital? What will need to happen in order to reduce spreads and change the current constraints in underwriting criteria? Will the CMBS market ever return? Does that matter?

Moderator:
Louis Forbes, CFO, Primaris REIT

Panel:
Dean Atkins, Vice President, Mortgage Investments,
   B.C. Investment Management Corporation
Gary Chaplin, Senior Director, Operations,
   CIBC Commercial Mortgages Division
Scott Coates, Managing Director, Mortgage Investments,
   KingSett Capital
Dino DiVito, Senior Vice President & CFO, Great Gulf Group
Moray Tawse, Vice President, Mortgage Investments,
   First National Financial LP
 

SESSION C5

HOW MUCH LIQUIDITY HAS RETURNED TO THE PROPERTY MARKET? WHAT ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES, RISKS AND RETURNS GOING FORWARD?



Having heard from leading commercial brokers from across the country in a prior session, this panel will now feature an insightful discussion and the perspective of investors on current and emerging trends across Canada. What have been the most significant challenges in order to buy or sell assets in this market? What are the differences, if any, between the issues faced by a REIT vs. a pension funds vs. a private equity fund vs. a foreign investor in selling or acquiring properties at this time? What information do you need in order to try to do a deal in this market? Is leverage a possibility to any degree? What are the conditions that are required for a significant return to dealflow, transaction velocity and greater liquidity? How close are we to that point in time? Where do you project that cap rates will be in 2010 relative to today’s prices? Who will be the most active buyers? Who do anticipate will be the likely sellers? Which product types will be most favoured by you? Which markets will be “top of mind”, and why? Will there be any distress likely in Canada next year or not?

Moderator:
Don Fitzpatrick, Partner & National Leader, Real Estate Services,
   Deloitte & Touche LLP

Panel:
Jonathan Gitlin, Vice President, Investments, RioCan REIT
George Schott, President & CEO, Osmington Inc.
Christian Strauch, Managing Director, ALINA Fund Management,
   KGAL Group
Paul Zemla, CIO, Bentall LP
 

12:30 p.m.                                          LUNCHEON

                                     
 

LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS


 

AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS