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2007 Program

7:00 AM

REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

 

8:00 AM

OPENING REMARKS: PROGRAM OVERVIEW

 

Introduction of the Forum Chairman:

William B. Thomas, Managing Partner, Greater Vancouver Area, KPMG

Forum Chairman:

Tony Astles, Executive Vice President, British Columbia, Bentall Capital LP

8:05 AM

KEYNOTE ADDRESS: HOW WILL THE CANADIAN ECONOMY PERFORM OVER THE NEXT YEAR? HOW MUCH GROWTH CAN WE EXPECT? WHAT IS THE IMPACT ON CANADIAN REAL ESTATE?

 

A leading economist will offer insights into and forecasts on the short-term and long-term outlook of the North American economy. A range of related issues will be presented: Canadian and U.S. interest rates for the next 12 months, the future direction of energy costs and their implications over the next few years, the outlook for the Canadian dollar and the rates of inflation and bond yields. Finally, the impact of regulatory bodies in foreign markets such as Germany, Israel and Australia is having dramatic results on Canadian real estate. Is this capital flow here to stay or is the honeymoon soon over?


Warren Jestin

Speaker:

Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President, & Chief Economist, Scotiabank

(PDF downloads: Presentation, Forecast Update, Real Estate Trends)

8:35 AM

PERSPECTIVE ON THE RISE OF WESTERN CANADA AND VANCOUVER

 

Too many people have discounted the economic prosperity enjoyed by western Canada as a product based solely on strong commodity markets. Contrasting the policies implemented in Canada’s three western–most provinces with the rest of Canada, a leading public policy economist will explain why the tax, spending, trade, and regulatory policies pursued by three different provincial governments of three different political persuasions are important explanations for the west’s success. In addition, he will discuss the current success of the Greater Vancouver Region, hopes for the future, and how to build on our success.

Presenter:

Jason Clemens, Director of Fiscal Studies, The Fraser Institute

Download the Presentation

9:00 AM

ROUNDTABLE ON INVESTMENT & DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY IN THE VANCOUVER MARKET

 

Real estate remains in strong favour relative to other asset classes. Access to debt and equity capital has rarely been better — and at historically low rates. This session will feature a wide-ranging discussion on current and emerging investment trends in markets across Canada with a view to Vancouver specifically. Who are the most active buyers, sellers and developers? Which product types are currently most favoured by investors? Why are acquisitions trading at above replacement cost? Which markets are “top of mind” and why? What have been some of the most significant transactions? How do investor attitudes vary from institutional vs. private to domestic vs. offshore? Is international pricing here to stay in Canada? In the face of increasing construction costs, how will new product be developed?

Moderator & Presenter:

John O’Bryan, Managing Director, TD Securities Realty Group

Panel:

Zelick Altman, Managing Director, Canada, LaSalle Investment Management
Avtar Bains, Senior Vice President, Colliers International
Eric Carlson, President & CEO, Anthem Properties Ltd.

Download the Presentation

9:55 AM

MORNING REFRESHMENTS

 

10:15 AM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select A1, A2 or A3)

 

Session A1:

WHAT IS THE NEW INDUSTRIAL MARKET IN BC?

Many municipalities responsible for industrial land supply are making it difficult for developers to achieve viable returns due to high land and development costs when combined with increasing construction costs. What can we tell municipalities to help them? Is mixed use the answer? Will industrial tenants tolerate the increase cost load and where will they go if they won’t?

Moderator:

Tony Akester, Martello Property Services Inc.

Panel:

Lee Blanchard, Vice President, Cushman & Wakefield LePage (download presentation)
Jeff Fleming, Vice President Investments, GWL Realty Advisors
Alan Whitchelo, Senior Vice President, Industrial & Commercial, Concert Properties (download presentation)

Session A2:

VANCOUVER’S OFFICE MARKET: NOW WHAT?

Following the surge in demand over the past two years and the resulting tight leasing markets, when, where and who will put up the new office buildings? How can office compete with downtown condo land values? Is sprawl to the suburbs the only solution and is that a bad thing? Not all nodes in Greater Vancouver appeal to all tenants. Who will be the winners and why? What is the outlook for demand from smaller and larger tenants?  Are tenants confident enough to make 5 and 10 year commitments to growth? In an employee scarce future, will tenants more often use the attributes of their office space as a tool to attract and retain key employees? Is there a looming battle between new and older buildings?

Moderator & Presenter:

Sandy McNair, President, Altus InSite

Panel:

Randy Cameron, Senior Vice President, Western Canada, Dundee REIT
Rob Kavanagh, Senior Director, Asset Management, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
John K. Megan, Vice President, CB Richard Ellis
Chuck We, Director of Leasing, Oxford Properties Group

Session A3:

THE OUTLOOK FOR RESIDENTIAL AND NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND IN THE VANCOUVER MARKET: IS THERE STILL TIME TO BUY AND SELL REAL ESTATE IN BC?

With such limited supply of land in Vancouver, are land values “undervalued” compared to other similarly characterized cities throughout North America, Europe and southeast Asia? What are the land options, or lack thereof, regarding industrial, retail, office greenfield and redevelopment sites throughout the GVRD? Is land really cheaper, when considering final development returns, as you drive east? Housing and condominium markets have slightly softened this spring but it’s not stopping construction – will it affect pricing and investment sales into 2008?

Moderator:

Gino Nonni, President, WesGroup Income Properties LP

Panel:

John Boer, Senior Vice President, Colliers International
Neil Chrystal, President, Polygon Homes
David Podmore, President & CEO, Concert Properties
John Rider, Vice President, Commercial Division, First Canadian Title

11:20 AM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select B1, B2 or B3)

 

Session B1:

GROWING PAINS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MULTI-FAMILY MARKETS – INVESTOR, OWNER AND RENTAL PERSPECTIVES

In recent years, investors of multi-family properties have seen significant gains in capital appreciation. With standing inventory of unsold units very low, these investors (not owner occupied), have falsely inflated this inventory. Since many residential developments are currently under construction, their completion time may coincide with investors’ decision to sell, thus, potentially oversupplying the market. What is the impact of these types of investors, by area, throughout the GVRD? Of these condominium/townhouse units built since 2003, again, what is the percentage of units held by these investors? Considering factors such as capital rates, added value through renovations and investor condos to name a few, will purpose built rental housing ever be viable for the multi-unit rental developer? Will the rental apartment market suffer as condo units enter the market or just the opposite – improve due to the lack of affordability for first-time homeowners? Where is the market going post 2010?

Moderator & Presenter:

Cameron Muir, Chief Economist, BC Real Estate Association

Panel:

David Goodman, Goodman Report, Macdonald Commercial Real Estate Services
John Purcell, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Management, Bentall Investment Management LP
Don Smith, Regional Manager Sales, Multi Unit Residential Mortgage, TD Canada Trust
Scott Ullrich, President, Gateway Property Management Ltd.

Download the Presentation

Session B2:

HOW ARE RETAILERS DEALING WITH RISING COSTS?

With many public retailers going private, the bottom line is now the driving force. Rising property taxes and rents are chasing the mom and pop shops out of business but what is replacing them? How does the little guy survive in the land of big box retailers? Is big box the way to go? If not, what is?

Moderator:

Mark Startup, President & CEO, Retail BC

Panel:

Lenora Gates, Director, Orange National Retail Group (BC) Inc. (download presentation)
Braeden Lord, President, COBS Bread
Neil McAllister, Associate, JJ Barnicke
Bob Tattle, Vice President, Business Development – Retail, Anthem Properties Ltd. (download presentation)

Session B3:

RECREATIONAL PROPERTY AND OTHER AFFECTS ON SECONDARY MARKETS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

Many of British Columbia’s secondary markets are booming due to an influx of wealth from Alberta and foreign investors. Are recreational property assessments rising exponentially as a result? And are local residents feeling the pinch? Where can we expect values to go? Have we peaked? Will Whistler strengthen before the Olympics? Many local populations are increasing monthly – what is the impact of this on housing availability, schools and infrastructure? What creative opportunities lay for developers and investors?

Introductions:

Tony Letvinchuk, President, Macdonald Commercial

Speakers:

John Murphy, President, 20/20 Properties
Stanley Yasin, President, Saje Enterprises Ltd.

Download the Presentation

12:25 PM

RECEPTION

 
 

LUNCHEON

 

1:40 PM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select C1, C2 or C3)

 

Session C1:

COST IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD: MANAGING CONSTRUCTION COSTS IN TOMORROW’S MARKET

With the cost of land, labour and construction materials costs rising at an unprecedented rate, developers must find creative means to make their projects viable. Because construction cost projections are in a constant state of increase, it is virtually impossible to budget for the next five to seven years. What are the factors contributing to this and when will it end? Or at least level off? What can developers and construction companies do to draw and retain labour talent? With these market conditions, how can developers realistically manage development projects? With the rate of price appreciation in the resale condo market slowing, will a cost-price squeeze drastically reduce developer profit margins?

Moderator:

Bill Tucker, Partner, Omicron Consulting Group

Panel:

Steve Matheson, Managing Director BC, Pivotal Projects
Ron McFee, Executive Director, Stuart Olson Construction
Liam Murray, Senior Director, Altus Helyar Cost Consulting Group
Keith Sashaw, President, Vancouver Regional Construction Association

Download the Presentation

Session C2:

MIXED USE: IS IT FOR EVERYONE?

Moderator Ian Thomas will lead off this session with some mixed use success stories including Market Common, Washington D.C.; Birkdale Village, Charlotte and in Europe — Potsdamer Platz in Berlin; Zlota Tarasy in Warsaw. Were the developers of these projects fully aware of the management, design and ownership challenges they were about to face? How were these challenges overcome? Before taking on mixed use, developers and owners must consider a wide spectrum of issues: land value — the pros and cons of quality vs. generic sites; increasing construction costs for the next five years; how immigration and population play a role in residential unit purchases and the splitting of income producing assets. And what about exit strategies?

Moderator:

Gordon Harris

Panel:

Stephen Knight, President, Sitings Realty Ltd.
Ward McAllister, President & CEO, Ledingham McAllister Properties Ltd.
Mark Thompson, Partner, Musson Cattell Mackey
Richard Weir, Vice President, Bosa Development Corp.

Download the Presentation

2:40 AM

AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS

 

2:45 PM

LOOKING BACK, GOING FORWARD

 

Based on his experience as Mayor of the City of Vancouver and as Premier of British Columbia, and more recently, in sustainable urban development, the Honourable Michael Harcourt offers a wealth of insight and information pertaining to Vancouver’s past urban development, its hurdles and successes, and where its future design and planning can go from here. This presentation promises to be thought-provoking and insightful as Mr. Harcourt speaks of Vancouver from his perspective and about its place within the international context of urban planning and design.

Presenter:

Honourable Michael Harcourt, Former Premier of BC and Former Chair to Prime Minister for Committee for Cities and Communities

3:35 PM

CLOSING SESSION: ASSESSING THE RISKS, TRENDS, CHALLENGES, AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2007–08

 

Given the broad range of issues that were raised during today’s conference, a panel of well respected senior real estate executives will have the last word. They will give us their insights and perspectives on what they believe are the most critical issues and market trends facing their business plans and the industry in general over the next year. What course of action should be taken?

Moderator:

Tony Astles, Executive Vice President, British Columbia, Bentall Capital LP

Panel:

Peter Cohos, President & CEO, Tonko Realty Advisors Ltd.
Paul Finkbeiner, President, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
Jon Love, Managing Partner, KingSett Capital
Gary Whitelaw, President & CEO, Bentall Capital LP

4:15 PM

CLOSING COMMENTS

 

Lesley Heieis, RPA, General Manager, Waterfront Properties, Cadillac Fairview

4:20 PM

CHAIRMAN’S RECEPTION