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Don Clow, President & CEO, Crombie REIT
An insightful presentation on the economic fundamentals that are driving the Canadian and U.S. economies respectively for the remainder of 2011 and the outlook for 2012. This will include a comparative examination of the Canadian and U.S. interest rates, the outlook for each currency, the rates of inflation, interest rates and bond yields. The presentation will also focus on key global market trends and their potential implications for our economy, e.g. the strong demand for commodities, the unrest in oil producing countries, the debt issues in Europe, and the strong growth in BRIC nations. What will be the impact of the outlook prospects for growth in Atlantic Canada?
Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank
A strong focus on the major current and emerging economic and demographic trends in Dartmouth, Halifax, Fredericton, Moncton, Saint John and St. John’s. What are the key engines of growth in each of these markets? What will be the likely performance of and potential growth of GDP, housing markets, household incomes, labour markets, overall employment, and population? How do the prospects for this market compare with other Canadian provinces and major cities? How is the trend towards urbanization affecting rural areas and cities? Why is this region only attracting three percent of Canada’s immigrants? With the exception of PEI, the mean age of the population is increasing: what will be the impact of an aging population? What has been the impact of global competition on call centres in Atlantic Canada? Are we losing these jobs to other markets, and what will replace them?
Mario Lefebvre, Director, Centre for Municipal Studies, The Conference Board of Canada
An overview of the growing significance of the energy sector in Atlantic Canada beginning withthe future of the oil, gas and electricity projects over the short and medium terms.Will a massive new hydro project be developed at Churchill Falls? Will power from that project betransmitted through the Maritime provinces and into the U.S.? Many observers see this project as an opportunity to usher in an era of pan-regional co-operation and prosperity. But will the region get its act together politically? Will if finally get the energy genie out of the bottle? This is the multi-billion question facing Atlantic Canada today. Finally, what would an integrated energy system mean for growth in this sector? How will these factors affect capital investment and job growth across the four provinces?
Jim Meek, Principal, Public Affairs Atlantic Inc.
An overview of leasing and investment activity in Halifax/Dartmouth, Fredericton, Moncton, Saint John and St. John’s for 2010 and the first half of 2011. What were some of the benchmark leasing and investment deals during this time? What is the outlook for the next eighteen in the office, retail, industrial and multi-unit residential sectors in terms of absorption rates, cap rates and potential leasing and investment activity? How do the trends in the key cities in Atlantic Canada compare with other Canadian markets?
Neil Hardy, Executive Vice President, Atlantic, RVA, Altus Group
Arthur Savary, Senior Director, RVA, Altus Group
Please note that each of the concurrent sessions will examine the markets in Dartmouth, Halifax, Fredericton, Moncton, Saint John and St. John’s.
How have the office markets in the five centres performed over the past few years? What is the outlook for the last half of 2011 and into 2012 in terms of inventory growth, occupant demand, and leasing activity? What are the major emerging trends? What is the growing relationship between office markets and residential development? Can a greater balance be restored between suburban development and downtown markets? How have pricing differences between smaller and larger markets affected development, and will this trend continue? Is there a price premium on green buildings, are they more efficient, and are there alternatives to LEED? With NERs projected to be moving from $19 to $30, how will they be factored into the pro formas of new developments? Is there an over-reliance on certain industries in providing occupancy? How will this affect the growth of the office market?
Bill MacAvoy, Managing Director, Cushman & Wakefield Atlantic
James W. Beckerleg, President & CEO, Homburg Canada REIT
Scott Armour McCrea, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Provinces, Cominar REIT
Jim Spatz, Chairman & CEO, Southwest Properties Ltd.
This session will examine the major trends in demand, supply and investment activity in both apartment and condominium markets. Among the questions that will be examined: what is the short and medium term outlook for the performance of the multi-unit residential sector; where are rental demand and vacancy rates heading over the next twelve months; what impact is the condominium market having on the apartment sector at this time and looking forward? How is CMHC mortgage insurance and rent control implementation affecting apartment values? How are more creative ground leasing options being used for condo development and mixed use? How cost-effective is new rental development at this time? Where are cap rates heading and where are they expected to be in 2011?
Greg Taylor, Managing Director, Colliers International (Atlantic) Inc.
Danny Chedrawe, President, Westwood Developments Ltd.
Kelly Hanczyk, CEO, TransGlobe Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust
Louis Lawen, President, Dexel Developments Ltd.
Dale Noseworthy, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Planning, Killam Properties Inc.
An insightful conversation among regional and national investors as they consider the major factors affecting investment in ICI and multi-family real estate in Atlantic Canada. What are the perceived and real risks to investors and developers doing business in this region? Where are investors putting their capital in the short and long term? Who are the active buyers and sellers and how do attitudes vary from institutional to private, and domestic to foreign? What trends are impacting local investment potential and confidence? How long will the flight to yield continue? What are the spread differentials vs. historic trends? How much of an issue is market size for major national investors? A typical asset in Atlantic Canada is smaller than the traditional value level of interest: will institutions go into second and third tier markets? How does liquidity compare between large and mid-markets? Why are Newfoundland & Labrador attracting many first time investors? Who are they and what’s their strategy? How do local entrepreneurs price assets as compared with national players, and how will predicted interest rate changes affect this?
Bob Mussett, Senior Vice President & Senior Managing Director, CB Richard Ellis Limited
William Hardman, President, The Hardman Group Ltd.
Michael Misener, Vice President, Investments, MCAN Mortgage Corporation
Bruce Traversy, Principal, Dundee REIT
Jason Underwood, Chief Executive Officer, Whiterock REIT
The discussion will open with a brief profile of industrial tenants across the four provinces – from call centres, shipping, and logistics to aerospace, food processing, and energy sectors. The panel will then examine other characteristics of the market including: how much space has been added in the past few years; what type of product is in highest demand in which regions, and what is the outlook for the industrial sector over the next twelve months. Other topics that will also be addressed include: how are global logistics trends affecting opportunities and growth of industrial development; what are the challenges in meeting these needs; what has been the impact of global competition on call centres in Atlantic Canada, and are jobs being lost to other markets; how strong is investor interest in this class; how much new industrial development is underway; and what is the leasing forecast for this asset class for 2011-12.
Kenzie MacDonald, Managing Director, Avison Young (Nova Scotia) Inc.
Gordon Lahanky, President, Atlantic Commercial Properties Inc.
John Lindsay, President, East Port Properties Ltd.
David Pappin, Vice President, Acquisitions, Roycom Inc.
John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CB Richard Ellis Limited
John Risley, President & CEO, Clearwater Fine Foods Inc.
A panel of retail developers, landlords and tenants will share their insights into the evolution of asset class across Atlantic Canada. They will discuss current and emerging leasing, investment, and development trends. What type of shopping experiences are consumers now looking for in urban centres, suburban malls and smaller markets? Which U.S. retailers are engaging in the Atlantic region, and how will they affect the market? Will downtown retail activity lead to more innovative forms of mixed-use development, and are municipal planners supporting these types of projects? What creativity and innovation can owners of retail space use to remain the most relevant attraction for the consumer?
Tim Margolian, Vice President, Investment Sales, DTZ Barnicke Atlantic
Sylvie Lachance, Executive Vice President, Real Estate Development, Sobeys Inc.
Gordon Lawlor, Executive Vice President, CFO & Secretary, Homburg Canada REIT
Simon Smith, Vice President, Leasing, Centrecorp Management Services
Michael Zakuta, President & CEO, Plazacorp Retail Properties Ltd.
The past year has seen an increase in the availability of well priced debt capital all across Canada. This panel discussion will focus specifically on what borrowers can expect for the remainder of 2011 and into 2012. Some of the questions that will be examined: How much debt capital will be available for commercial mortgages, and from what sources? Will mainstream lenders consider smaller communities, and what is their view on Atlantic Canada in general? Who are the non-traditional lenders in each province, and what is their pricing vs. conventional sources? How do lenders view green buildings? How is development risk now being priced, what is likely to happen with loan spreads, amortization periods, loan to value ratios, and recourse, and what are the differences between new developments and existing buildings?
Glenn Hynes, CFO & Secretary, Crombie REIT
Mike Blaesing, Manager, Atlantic Real Estate Group, TD Commercial Banking
Cliff Consmueller, AVP & Regional Director, Manulife Financial
Bill Kwiecien, Regional Manager, Atlantic, First National Financial LP
Glenn Umlah, Principal, Montrose Atlantic
To offer a unique perspective on the broad range of issues raised during the day’s presentations, a panel of well-respected senior real estate executives will comment on real estate market fundamentals for 2011 and beyond, for Halifax, Moncton, Fredericton, Saint John and St. John’s, as well as for the overall Atlantic market. They will offer their insights on what they see occurring over the next twelve months, and their strategic thinking going forward. Among the other questions to be examined:
Don Clow, President & CEO, Crombie REIT
Tim Banks, Chief Executive Officer, APM Construction
Nora Duke, President & CEO, Fortis Properties Corporation
Paul Finkbeiner, President, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
Charlie Oliver, Chief Executive Officer, Martek Morgan Finch Inc.
Robert Richardson, Executive Vice President & CFO, Killam Properties Inc.