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Greg Kwong, Regional Managing Director, CB Richard Ellis Alberta Ltd.
The opening presentation will examine the economic outlook and performance of the Calgary market and the key associated trends that continue to drive the growth in this region. How do the economic prospects for Calgary compare with the outlook for other major Canadian cities? How does the forecast for Alberta compare with Canada or with the United States and especially a region with a similar resource-based economy like Texas? Is there any indication that the economic conditions in the west are peaking? What is the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and energy prices for 2009 and beyond?
Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist & Chief Strategist, Managing Director, CIBC World Markets Inc.
An insightful discussion on the outlook for the hydrocarbons and energy sector in Alberta over the short and medium terms. Among the many questions that will be answered are the following. Where are world oil and gas prices heading in 2009? What are the implications of these energy prices for capital investment in Alberta? How much research, exploration and development are planned over the next 10 years? How has the strength of the energy sector contributed to Calgary’s rise as a major financial centre in western Canada? Given the historic cycles of “boom and bust” in the energy sector, is there a need to start being concerned about the current cycle?
Martin Molyneaux, Managing Director, Institutional Research, First Energy Capital Corporation
This presentation will examine the highlights of a significant study that was completed earlier this year on the major demographic and economic trends that are changing the face of western Canada. Comments will cover immigration and interprovincial migration trends, the aging and other key demographics of the population, urbanization trends, the industrial structure and performance of the western economy, the export markets for the west’s goods and services, how the region has changed, and how it compares to other parts of Canada. What are the implications of these trends on real estate investment and development in the Calgary market?
Robert Roach, Director of Strategic Policy + Research, Canada West Foundation
With vacancy rates remaining at near historic low levels, Calgary remains one of the hottest office markets in North America. This is one of the reasons why there is still more new office space under construction in Calgary than the rest of Canada combined. Should developers start more projects, slow down on existing ones, or just pray? What do the demand fundamentals suggest? What is the forecast for future space requirements of the major occupants of the downtown core? Confirm or deny whether the vacancy rates will rise significantly to double digit figures by 2011. What would that mean for the downtown market?
Moderator and Overview Presentation:
Sandy McNair, President, Altus InSite
Randy Cameron, Senior Vice President, Western Canada, Dundee REIT
Scott Hutcheson, Chairman, President & CEO, Aspen Properties Ltd.
Jeff Hyde, Vice President, Development, Prairie Region, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
Dwight Jack, Vice President, Office Leasing, Brookfield Properties Corporation
The industrial real estate sector in the Calgary market has grown to be the leading western Canadian centre for logistics and distribution. However, the skyrocketing cost of land and construction appears to be putting some pressure on the ability of the market to attract new investment and development activity. The panel will examine the demand pressures on the Calgary industrial market and the extent to which they are likely to continue through 2009 and beyond. What impact is the rising cost of oil having on industrial distribution channels and on Calgary in particular? Do the economics of building new industrial continue to make sense? Will an increasing amount of industrial activity move outside of the city’s boundaries to areas like Balzac?
VJ Tukkimaki, Vice President, DTZ Barnicke
Murray DeGirolamo, Vice President, Industrial, Western Canada, Hopewell Development Corporation
Peter N. Edgar, Leasing Manager, WAM Development Group
Cole Harris, President, Centron Group of Companies
John Marotta, Senior Vice President, Western Region, Bentall Real Estate Services LP
This session will focus on two significant and unique mixed-use developments that are underway in the Calgary market. Quarry Park is one of the largest and most ambitious brownfield reclamation projects in North America, restoring to active use a 314 acre site in southeast Calgary. The project will feature over 1.7 million square feet of suburban office space – more than both towers of Bankers Hall combined – integrated with housing, retail, and recreational areas. The presentation will examine key features of this sustainable mixed-use live and work community – a transit-oriented development that embodies the environmental, land use, social, and quality-of-life principles of New Urbanism. Scheduled to be completed in 2016, StoneGate Landing is western Canada’s largest land development project with a total of 10 million square feet of industrial space, 2 million square feet of offices, and 1.5 million square feet of retail uses over an 1100 acre area. The $3 billion mixed-used commercial development is located in proximity of Canada’s third busiest airport in the northeast quadrant of Calgary that is expected to attract some 60,000 new residents over the next ten years. The development will incorporate a range of sustainable design features using green building technologies in areas such as energy efficiency, architectural designs, storm water management, and indoor air quality.
Alex Brough, Vice President, Office Leasing, Cushman & Wakefield LePage
Richard Charlton, Senior Vice President, Asset Management, WAM Development Group
Cody Clayton, Vice President, Leasing & Land Sales, Remington Development Corporation
Notwithstanding Calgary’s strong population growth, concern was expressed in previous years by some investors about the short and medium term outlooks for the multi-unit residential market. This session will examine the key trends that are contributing to very strong rental market conditions for apartments. Notwithstanding the current decline in the housing market, homeownership affordability continues to be an issue because of the considerable spike in prices in the past four years. What are the short and medium term outlooks for the performance of the Calgary apartment and condominium sector? Are rent increases getting smaller? Have vacancy rates stabilized? Are any new apartment buildings being developed? What impact is the sluggish condominium market having on apartments? Where are cap rates heading?
Moderator & Overview Presentation:
Tim Sommer, Vice President, Investment Sales, Capital Markets Group, Cushman & Wakefield LePage Inc.
Johnson Cheng, Director of Marketing and Sales, Torode Residential Ltd.
Nawaz Hirji, President, Primevest Equities
Terry McLean, Executive Vice President, Western Canada, Altus Group Limited
Lisa Russell, Vice President, Acquisitions, Western Canada, Boardwalk REIT
Office, retail, industrial and multi-unit residential sectors continue to enjoy excellent liquidity and at relatively high values notwithstanding the fallout from the subprime market issues. Calgary’s real estate remains in strong favour relative to other markets. This session will feature a wide-ranging discussion on current and emerging investment trends in Calgary from the perspective of commercial realtors and investment bankers. Who are the most active buyers? Who are the sellers? Which product types are currently most favoured by investors? What have been the most significant transactions? How do investor attitudes vary from institutional vs. private and domestic vs. offshore? How does Calgary compare with Edmonton and other Canadian markets?
John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CB Richard Ellis Limited
Jason Cottle, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group
David Forbes, Executive Vice President, CB Richard Ellis Alberta Ltd.
Michael Golightly, Vice President/Partner, CMN Calgary Inc.
James Miller, Partner – Investment, Avison Young Commercial Real Estate
The retail sector continues to demonstrate significant leasing strength and strong investment and development interest with millions of square feet planned to come on stream over the next three years. But will that happen? The skyrocketing costs of construction are dramatically changing the economics of the rents that developers must be able to charge to make a project realistic. How far can rents go? Where is the threshold? Owners also need to be very creative to ensure that their projects appeal to existing Canadian retailers as well as new retailers from the U.S. Differentiation is also a key ingredient between the leading centres and new projects. This session will discuss all these trends, challenges and issues, as well as the outlook for Calgary retail market activity.
Jeff McGinley, Partner, Avison Young Commercial Real Estate
Roman Drohomirecki, Senior Vice President, Western Region, Ivanhoe Cambridge Inc.
Melvin Foht, Vice President, Development, Royop Development Corporation
Chris Wood, Principal, Northwest Atlantic
Ron Wratschko, Senior Vice President, Western Portfolio, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited
Over the past few years, green building has become a $25 billion industry in North America. What has been at the forefront of this rapid market transformation? What have been the key factors responsible for the acceptance, development, implementation, and acceleration of these practices? Why are institutional investors among some of the strongest advocates for green investment and see this as a value proposition? What tangible results have been offered on the quantifiable value of higher performance buildings? While developers and landlords are aware of various green initiatives, how do we as an industry, market the concepts and create awareness with tenants so that the development of green projects and the greening of existing buildings becomes a recognized standard? While considerable focus has been on greening office buildings, does it also make economic sense to green industrial and retail projects? Will tenants pay more to be in a green building? Discussion will also focus on the comprehensive green lease – the first of its kind – that has been produced for the industry by Real Property Association of Canada.
Randy Kraft, Partner, Financial Institutions & Real Estate, KPMG LLP
Matt Grace, Division Head, Calgary, Enermodal Engineering Ltd. (download presentation)
Doug Hitchcox, Vice President, Office Leasing Division, Sustainability Practice Group, Cushman & Wakefield LePage
Stephen Mahler, Principal, Gibbs Gage Architects (download presentation)
David Routledge, Vice President, Real Estate Management, Western Canada, Oxford Properties Group Inc.
The session will open with an overview presentation of the trends in the price and investment sales of industrial, commercial and residential land in the greater Calgary area. A panel discussion will examine the market fundamentals and dynamics driving land acquisitions and development in the region. Where are land values heading for 2009 and beyond? How does pricing and availability compare from the MD of Rocky View and the Highway 8 corridor to the Beltline and other inner city areas? What steps is the Calgary Regional Partnership taking to try to address these market pressures? Can the strong demand, constrained supply, and high prices be sustained? Is there anything on the horizon that might increase supply and lower prices? How does Calgary compare with other Canadian and North American markets? One of the panelists will also examine the challenge associated with construction costs in the Calgary market which have doubled in the past three years. What are the major contributing factors to the rising costs? How can development projects be realistically managed under such market conditions? What is the outlook for 2009 with respect to these continuing cost escalations?
Moderator and Overview Presentation:
George Carras, President, RealNet Canada
Rob Coon, Chief Administrative Officer, Municipal District of Rocky View
Asad Niazi, Vice President, Land Development, Bordeaux Developments Corporation
Iain McCorkindale, Senior Director, Cost Consulting, Altus Group
Paul Taylor, Executive Vice President, Hopewell Residential Communities
George Brookman, President and Chairman, Calgary Stampede Board of Directors
A brief overview followed by a panel discussion on the current performance and the emerging trends in the United States, China, England, and across Western Europe. What has been the impact to-date of the fallout from the subprime market turbulence on cap rates, deal flow, leasing markets and development activity in these markets outside of Canada? What are the top three issues that you must consider when looking at these markets? Are the opportunities for investors increasing at this time? How do the challenges in these markets compare with trends and conditions across Canada at this time?
Patrick McFetridge, Executive Vice President, CB Richard Ellis Alberta Ltd.
Paul Boneham, Senior Vice President, Acquisitions, Kennedy Associates Real Estate Counsel LLC
Chris Broccolo, Principal, Verus Partners LP
Yves-André Godon, Managing Director, Canada, SITQ
This session will examine some of the most significant new planning initiatives that have been and are being undertaken by the City of Calgary. Discussion will begin by examining the new land use bylaw that came into effect on June 1, 2008 and the key differences between this and the previous one that was written thirty years ago. The new bylaw was approved by Council because the previous one became expensive to administer and did not meet the many emerging needs. Consistency, efficiency, predictability and capacity for innovation were considered to be the hallmarks of the new policies. The regulation offers an increased number of land use districts with more specific purposes, more detailed definitions and rules for a wider range of land uses, and more opportunities for permitted use development. Discussion will also focus on the Centre City Plan which is an upcoming Div10 of the new bylaw, and “Plan-It Calgary” which is a “hot topic” with significant impact for land developers.
Vince Dods, Principal, Gibbs Gage Architects
David Allen, Vice President, Calgary Land, Carma Developers LP
Mary Axworthy, Director, Land Use Planning & Policy, City of Calgary
Greg Brown, Principal, Brown and Associates Planning Group
Guy Scott, President, WAM Development Group
The session will open with a presentation on how the global credit crisis has affected the Canadian commercial mortgage market. The panelists will discuss: how the greater structured finance market led to the collapse of the CMBS market; how the CMBS market has irreversibly linked the commercial mortgage market to the volatility inherent in the public capital markets; and what have been the benefits and consequences of that linkage. Discussion will also flow into how the absence of capital market funding models has influenced the private placement market controlled by the life companies and pension funds. The panel will attempt to clarify what needs to happen in order for the mortgage market to regain its past liquidity. They will also briefly comment on how these market conditions are affecting real estate values.
Moderator and Panelist:
Rob Millar, Principal, Montrose Mortgage
Michel Richard, Vice President, Laurentian Bank Securities
Moray Tawse, Vice President, Mortgage Investments, First National Financial LP
Tim Westlake, Senior Vice President, CMBS, Dominion Bond Rating Service
This session will open by examining the key trends in the suburban office sector, how they compare and differ with the downtown market, and what the profiles are of the tenants that are attracted to these locations. How do suburban vacancy rates compare with the core? To what extent are downtown office rates sending more non-oil and gas industry tenants to outlying locations? Discussion will also focus on what new development is currently being proposed as well as the projects that are already underway and their target markets. Is there a possibility that the market is overbuilt in the northeast? Are vacancy rates climbing to higher than expected levels? The panel will also discuss the Transit Oriented Development policies being advocated by the city. What are the underlying reasons for this policy? What are the implications?
Peter Mayerchak, Vice President/Partner, Suburban Office Sales & Leasing, CMN Calgary Inc.
Randy Borisenko, General Manager – Calgary, Morguard Investments Limited
Hannes Kovac, President & CEO, Opus Building Canada Inc.
Armin Martens, President & CEO, Artis REIT
Doug Porozni, Vice President, Development, Ronmor Developers Inc.
A panel discussion on the most significant issues facing real estate decision-makers about the Calgary market today – the future outlook for and sustainability of current property values. Among the questions that will be examined are the following:
The panel will also address the matter of liquidity and its impact on property values and other factors that determine value.
Greg Kwong, Executive Vice President & Regional Managing Director, CB Richard Ellis Alberta Ltd.
Paul Campbell, President & CEO, SITQ
Paul Kennedy, Chairman, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
Jon Love, Managing Partner, KingSett Capital
Randy Magnussen, Executive Vice President, Bentall Real Estate Services LP
Randy Remington, President & CEO, Remington Development Corporation