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2010 Program

7:00 AM

REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

 

8:00 AM

WELCOME & GREETINGS

 

Introduction:

Randy Kraft, Partner, Real Estate & Financial Services, KPMG LLP

Forum Chairman:

Bill Bird, Vice President, Alberta, CREIT Management LP

8:05 AM

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR ALBERTA AND CANADA: IS THERE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL OR IS THERE MORE TURBULENCE AHEAD?

 

The opening presentation will examine the economic outlook for North America including Canadian and U.S. GDP and employment growth, market liquidity, interest rate trends, energy prices, rates of inflation, and currency values. How much turbulence can we still expect over the next fifteen months? Are we in still in the early innings of a slow recovery or are we moving into a double dip recession? What are the likely prospects for Alberta’s performance relative to the rest of Canada over the short and medium term? Will there be any other major drivers of this provincial economy over and above the hydrocarbons market?


Warren Jestin

Speaker:

Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank

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8:35 AM

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ALBERTA OIL AND NATURAL GAS SECTORS: HOW MUCH GROWTH CAN BE EXPECTED? WHERE ARE THEY HEADING?

 

An insightful discussion on the outlook for the Alberta energy sector over the short and medium term. The presentation will focus on both major producers as well as the junior explorers. Among the questions that will be examined: Where are oil and gas prices heading in 2011 and beyond? What are the implications of these energy prices for capital investment in Alberta? To what extent are the oil and gas sectors two very different markets? How much research, exploration and development is likely to occur over the foreseeable future? How are the junior producers performing in the current market and what lies ahead for them? Is the junior oil model broken or will we see growth over the next few years among the small and larger corporations?


Martin Molyneaux

Speaker:

Martin Molyneaux, Managing Director, Institutional Research, FirstEnergy Capital Corp.

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9:10 AM

THE PROSPECTS AND DRIVERS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ALBERTA

 

The general view from all corners is that the economy in Alberta and Calgary specifically rises and falls with the performance of the oil and gas markets. While there has been a strong logic to that premise, to what extent is shift occurring and move away from being “a one trick pony”? What are the economic activities that are emerging that will provide Alberta and Calgary specifically with a competitiveness and level of growth that will move the long term prevailing view?


Jim Dinning

Keynote Speaker:

Jim Dinning, Chairman, Board of Directors, Western Financial Group and Chair, Canada West Foundation

9:40 AM

MORNING REFRESHMENTS

 

10:10 AM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select A1, A2, A3 or A4)

 

Session A1:

THE DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Everyone knows the story. With vacancy rates at historic low levels over the past few years, Calgary was North America’s – if not one of the world’s – hottest office markets. But a record volume of development activity created so much new office space that there is a very significant disconnect with the absorption capability of the market. And there is still more new space coming on stream. This panel will try to provide some perspective on what lies ahead. What is forecast for future space requirements of the major occupants of the downtown core? Who else can step into the breach to fill the space? How significantly will the vacancy rate rise? How will class A buildings fare vs. class B and C? What will the supply/demand imbalance mean for the downtown market? When will the vacancy levels likely peak again? What will it take for the market to rebound from a leasing and investment point of view?

Moderator:

Greg Kwong, Executive Vice President & Regional Managing Director, CB Richard Ellis Alberta Limited

Panel:

Randy Cameron, Senior Vice President, Western Canada Region, Dundee REIT
Scott Hutcheson, Chairman & CEO, Aspen Properties Ltd.
John Marotta, Senior Vice President, Western Region, Bentall LP
David Routledge, Vice President, Real Estate Management, West, Oxford Properties Group Inc.

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Session A2:

LAND & DEVELOPMENT IN CALGARY: WHERE ARE WE IN THE BOOM OR BUST CYCLE? WHAT IS THE CITY DOING WITH ITS LAND PORTFOLIO?

The session will open with a brief overview of the trends in the price and investment sales of industrial, commercial and residential land in the greater Calgary area. A panel discussion will examine the market fundamentals and dynamics affecting land acquisitions and development in the region. What are the current land values and where are they heading for 2011 and beyond? What are the City’s plans with respect to its land portfolio and bringing some supply on stream? To what extent has the servicing of developable land slowed down? How large is the inventory of serviced land at this time? Are there any tools that are available for municipalities and developers to reduce the degree of the “boom or bust” cycle?

Moderator:

Birol Fisekci, President & CEO, Bordeaux Developments Corporation (download presentation)

Panel:

Jeff Cheverie, President & CEO, Birchwood Properties
Don Merlo, Vice Persident, Carma Developers LP
James Robertson, Director, Office of Land Servicing & Housing, City of Calgary (download presentation)
Dave Simes, Senior Consultant & Team Leader, Research, Valuation & Advisory, Altus Group

Session A3:

UPDATE ON THE INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET: WHAT HAVE BEEN THE IMPACTS OF THE SOFTENING ECONOMY AND ENERGY SECTOR?

Over the past decade, Calgary became the leading Western Canadian logistics and distribution centre. In recent years, the skyrocketing cost of land and construction put strong pressure on the ability of the market to deliver new industrial space at reasonable prices. How much has that changed in the past year? What impact did the slowdown in the economy and the challenges facing oil and gas exploration and production have on industrial demand in Calgary? Where do vacancy rates stand currently and what is the forecast for 2011? How much absorption is anticipated over the next few years? How much new development is underway? How much investment activity is this asset class attracting? What impact has the softening economy had on the price of land and the cost of construction? What lies ahead for this asset class?

Moderator:

Paul Marsden, Associate, Industrial Sales and Leasing, Colliers International

Panel:

Phil Brown, Director of Leasing, Bentall LP
Rick Charlton, Senior Vice President, Asset Management, WAM Development Group
Murray DeGirolamo, Vice President, Industrial, Western Canada,
Hopewell Development Corporation
Blair Sinclair, Senior Vice President, Leasing & Development, Tonko Realty Advisors Ltd.

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Session A4:

HOW WELL IS THE RENTAL APARTMENT MARKET PERFORMING?

Notwithstanding Calgary’s strong population growth in recent years, concern has been expressed by some investors about the short and medium term outlook for the multi-unit residential market. This session will examine the key trends in the Calgary apartment market.

What is the short and medium term outlook for the performance of the multi-unit residential sector in Calgary? Have vacancy rates stabilized and are they starting to fall? Where are rent levels heading over the next twelve months? What impact is the sluggish condominium market having on apartments? Where are cap rates heading? What has been the impact of CMHC mortgage insurance on apartment values? How much investor interest is there in this asset class in Calgary? What impact is the lack of available product having on investment activity and pricing?

Moderator:

Tim Sommer, Vice President, Investment Sales, Capital Markets Group, Cushman & Wakefield Limited

Panel:

Ugo Bizzarri, CFO & Vice President, Acquisitions, Timbercreek Asset Management
Roberto Geremia, President, Boardwalk REIT
Martina Jileckova, Vice President, Housing, Calgary Homeless Foundation
David Langill, Executive Vice President & Chief Investment Officer, Realstar Management Services Limited

11:20 AM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select B1, B2, B3 or B4)

 

Session B1:

WHY ARE SASKATOON AND REGINA ATTRACTING THE ATTENTION OF INVESTORS AND DEVELOPERS FROM ALBERTA AND OTHER REGIONS?

The real estate market has in Saskatchewan has attracted a growing interest among Albertans as well as investors and developers from across Canada. Two of the major underlying reasons appear to be: the very diverse and strong economic fundamentals and performance of this province; and the corresponding opportunity for investors to take advantage of these different cycles and reduce some of the risk associated with other parts of the country. This session will provide an update on how the office, retail, industrial and multi-unit residential markets are performing in Regina and Saskatoon. A panel discussion will examine the current strengths, challenges and distinctive aspects of this provincial real estate sector.

Moderators:

Richard Jankowski, Managing Director & Vice President Operations, Avison Young Commercial Real Estate (Sask.) Inc.
Tom McClocklin, President, Colliers McClocklin Real Estate Corp.

Panel:

Peter Cohos, President, Tonko Realty Advisors Ltd.
Rosanne Hill Blaisdell, Managing Director, Harvard Buildings Inc.
Lisa Russell, Vice President, Acquisitions, Western Canada, Boardwalk REIT

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Session B2:

THE CHANGING NATURE OF SHOPPING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CALGARY MARKET

The session will open with a visually dynamic presentation that will clearly define the retail experience of the future, exposing the dynamics of a new world where consumers call the shots. From the big box to e-commerce to fast fashion to new luxury, the speaker will strip away old ideas about consumer behavior, shining a spotlight on the key trends retailers, developers and shopping centres need to grapple with in the coming decade. A panel discussion will then follow on the issues, challenges and opportunities of the marketplace. Do consumers really want more of the same stores, products and brands? What formats and innovations are growing in popularity? Will open air centres remain the new normal? How are regional centres responding to changing trends? What is in store for new retail formats? What lies ahead for retail market activity in Calgary in 2011?

Moderator:

Rob Walker, Vice President & Director, CMN Calgary Inc.

Keynote Speaker:

Anthony Stokan, Partner, Anthony Russell Inc. and author of “Naked Consumption: Retail Trends Uncovered” (download presentation)

Panel:

Ralph Huizinga, Vice President, Acquisitions & Development, Western Canada, First Capital Realty Inc.
Brian Kowall, Vice Chairman, Royop Development Corporation
Darryl Schmidt, Vice President of National Leasing, Western Portfolio, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited

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Session B3:

INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN CALGARY: HOW MUCH LIQUIDITY IS BACK IN THE MARKET?

Office, retail, industrial and multi-unit residential sectors all experienced a reduction in deal flow and a lack of liquidity for most of 2009. But conditions and the investment environment changed in the last part of the year and continued with some vitality into 2010. Low cost and abundant capital started to look for a home in the real estate sector. This session will feature a wide ranging discussion on current investment trends from the perspective of commercial realtors, investment bankers and investors. How much of a disconnect is there between the appetite of buyers and the availability of product? What are the challenges that investors and owners are facing to buy or sell assets in this market? Where are cap rates at this time and where do they appear to be heading? Which asset classes might see increased activity in 2011? How do investor attitudes vary from institutional vs. private and domestic vs. offshore? How does Calgary compare with Edmonton as well as other Canadian markets? What are the major lessons that were learned from the credit crunch?

Moderator:

John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CB Richard Ellis Limited

Panel:

Jason Cottle, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group
James Miller, Principal, Investment, Avison Young (Canada) Inc.
Allan Okabe, Vice President, Western Canada, EPIC Realty Partners (Alberta) Inc.
Andrew Tong, Senior Vice President, Acquisitions & Dispositions, Concert Properties Limited

Session B4:

THE CITY’S REAL ESTATE ASSETS: THE REDEVELOPMENT OF EAST VILLAGE, WEST VILLAGE AND T.O.D. SITES: WHAT ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPERS?

An insightful examination of two major development areas on either side of the downtown, and Transit Oriented Development (TOD) on city-owned land. The first part of the session will discuss the progress that has made to date with the detailed master plans to revitalize the East Village through a series of commercial and residential projects. The second half of the session will focus on the redevelopment plans for the West Village and other TOD sites. What does the City anticipate doing with its land portfolio in these areas? What infrastructure upgrades and public realm improvements are anticipated? What opportunities are there for developers to participate in all of these major initiatives?

Moderator:

Mary Axworthy, Director of Land Use Planning & Policy, Planning Development & Assessment, City of Calgary (download presentation)

Panel:

Chris Ollenberger, President & CEO, Calgary Municipal Land Corporation (download presentation)
James Robertson, Director, Office of Land Servicing & Housing, City of Calgary (download presentation)
Matthias Tita, Manager, Centre City Planning and Design, City of Calgary (download presentation)
Daniel Van Leeuwen, Principal, New Urban Consulting (download presentation)

12:20 PM

INFORMAL LUNCHEON & NETWORKING OPPORTUNITY

 
 

LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS

 

1:20 PM

KEYNOTE SPEAKER: WHAT CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES LIE AHEAD FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR IN ALBERTA?

 


Steve Snyder

Keynote Speaker:

Steve Snyder, President & CEO, TransAlta Corporation

2:00 PM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select C1, C2, C3 or C4)

 

Session C1:

THE SUBURBAN OFFICE MARKET: HOW IS IT PERFORMING COMPARED TO DOWNTOWN?

This session will open by examining the key trends in the suburban office market, and how it compares with the downtown core, e.g. rent levels, tenant profiles, vacancy rates, subleasing activity. What have been the major implications of the softening downtown market on suburban office space? To what extent has the suburban market been overbuilt and, if so, in which areas? What does the future hold for suburban office leasing and development? Is the City still advocating Transit Oriented Development policies for suburban projects? Is the concept of creating strong nodal development in outlying areas a pipedream or does it make sense and will it eventually occur?

Moderator:

Alex Brough, Senior Vice President, Office Leasing, Cushman & Wakefield Limited

Panel:

Jeff Hyde, Vice President, Development, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
Hannes Kovac, President & CEO, OPUS Corporation
Patrick Smith, Director Realty Transactions, Western Region, Nexacor Realty Management Inc.
Jim Strome, Executive Director, Real Estate South, Alberta Health Services

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Session C2:

REINVESTMENT IN THE CENTRE CITY: WHAT ARE THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS DOING TO IMPLEMENT THE CENTRE CITY PLAN?

A wide ranging discussion that will examine public projects; public spaces; plans to upgrade infrastructure including streets, sidewalks and transit; the late night economy; extra policing. What is expected to happen to the abandoned holes in the ground from stalled developments? What changes might be anticipated to the downtown development bonus system, CM2 guidelines etc.

Moderator:

Vince Dods, Principal, Gibbs Gage Architects

Panel:

Ben Barrington, Manager, Centre City Implementation, City of Calgary
David Down, Coordinator of Urban Design and Heritage, Land Use Planning & Policy, City of Calgary
Kevin Griffiths, Manager, Building Regulations, Development and Building Approvals, City of Calgary
Michael Mehak, Development Manager, 20 VIC Management Inc.

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Session C3:

INTEREST RATES AND THEIR EFFECT ON REAL ESTATE FINANCE

Over the past thirty years, commercial mortgage lending has greatly benefited from continuously falling rates because of the positive effect on debt service coverage and the corresponding increase in real estate valuation. Many mortgage and real estate investors have known nothing else but a falling rate environment. This panel will explore the possibility of a continuation of this pattern, as well as the consequences of a rising rate environment as it specifically relates to mortgage lending and real estate valuation. The panel will identify certain assumptions that seem correct today but may change if rates move one way or another; macro economic trends that can be used as early indicators for a rising or falling cost of mortgage capital; and the implications to real estate finance of being increasingly connected with the public capital markets and to the yield curve.

Moderator:

Rob Millar, Partner, MillarForan

Panel:

Neil Downey, Managing Director and Real Estate Equity Analyst, Global Research, RBC Capital Markets
Bruce Graham, Vice President, Mortgage Development and Operations, Standard Life Realty Advisors
Todd Hirsch, Senior Economist, ATB Financial

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Session C4:

WHAT ARE ENTREPRENEURS AND DEVELOPERS DOING IN THIS MARKET?

One of the hot investment topics of the past year and a half was the impending arrival of distressed opportunities. However, it has not appeared to have emerged in Calgary on any noticeable scale. In its absence, what are investors and developers doing at this time? Who is active in the buying and selling sides? What are the key drivers of their strategies? What development opportunities are being pursued successfully at this time? What types of properties and sites are most in demand? What sources of capital are they able to access? What are the key challenges that these investors and developers are facing?

Moderator:

Garry Beres, Senior Vice President, CB Richard Ellis Alberta Limited

Panel:

David Forbes, Principal, Enright Captial
Blair McCreadie, Fund Manager, Standard Life Investments (Real Estate) Inc.
John Torode, President, Torode Realty Advisors Ltd.
Bruce Traversy, Principal, Dundee Real Estate Asset Management

3:10 PM

EXECUTIVE ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION ON CALGARY: HOW ARE MAJOR REAL ESTATE INVESTORS VIEWING THIS MARKET?

 

A wide ranging panel discussion on the key trends, opportunities and risks emerging in the office, industrial, retail and multi-unit residential markets in Calgary. Among the questions that will be discussed: what do you like about the Calgary market and what concerns do you have; where do you see the real estate cycle heading over the short to medium term in Calgary by asset class; has sufficient liquidity returned to the property markets; what are you buying, where are you buying, and why are you buying; what plans do you have with respect your existing Calgary portfolio; how has the turbulence especially within the U.S. and global economy in general affected your activities; to what degree are you optimistic vs. pessimistic over the short and medium term; and what will be your strategy for 2011 and beyond in this market.

Moderator:

Bill Bird, Vice President, Alberta, CREIT Management LP

Panel:

Roman Drohomirecki, Senior Vice President, Western Region — Canada, Ivanhoe Cambridge Inc.
Michael Emory, President & CEO, Allied Properties REIT
Blake Hutcheson, President & CEO, Oxford Properties Inc.
Jon Love, Managing Partner, KingSett Capital
Kevin Pshebniski, President, Hopewell Development Corporation

4:05 PM

CLOSING REMARKS

 

Bill Bird, Vice President, Alberta, CREIT Management LP

4:10 PM

NETWORKING RECEPTION