An insightful presentation of the ongoing “Downtown Moves Study” being completed by the City of Ottawa. This report is examining the opportunity and potential to transform the urban design quality and transportation functionality of downtown Ottawa that will result from the implementation of the Light Rail Transit Project. The City’s objective is for the downtown core to be more livable, workable, walkable, cycling-friendly, and transit-oriented. It is hoped that the public sector’s investment in the new LRT will in turn fuel a period of real estate investment and development, and downtown prosperity.

Speakers:
Ronald Clarke, Senior Principal, Manager of Planning, Delcan Corporation
Nelson Edwards, Senior Urban Designer, Urban Planner, Planning & Growth Management, City of Ottawa

A presentation of a recently completed study that examines the market dynamics and industry footprint of Ottawa’s office, retail, and industrial property markets, and quantifies the significant annual implications of all this market activity within the City. Key analytics will be explored including the direct and indirect economic impacts of the industry’s annual operating expenditure, employment, and tax base.

An indepth discussion about investment activity in the Ottawa market. The session will open with a brief overview of some of the bellwether transactions over the past twelve months. The panel will then address a range of questions including: given cap rate compression on the one hand and the abundant availability of low priced capital on the other, what have been the major challenges facing investors trying to buy assets in Canada and in Ottawa in particular; where are cap rates at this time and where are they heading; which asset classes might see the most activity in 2013; how do investor attitudes vary from institutional vs. private and domestic vs. offshore; to what extent is CMBS on a comeback and could produce greater liquidity; and how does Ottawa compare as well as other Canadian markets? The trends will be examined from the perspective of a range of investors who are also active in various kinds of asset classes.

Moderator:
John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited

Panel:
Rob Kumer, Partner, Investments, KingSett Capital 
Kevin Leon, President & Founder, Crestpoint Real Estate Investments Ltd.
Blair McCreadie, Head of Canadian Real Estate, Standard Life Investments (Real Estate) Inc.
Paul Scholz, Managing Director, Institutional Mortgage Capital

As the population of the National Capital Region reaches 1.3 million, what is the inspired vision of the City of Ottawa to attract and facilitate ongoing growth in this market? What role is the municipality playing in creating a sense of place and in providing certainty for developers and citizens alike? What planning policies and infrastructure projects is the City implementing as part of this strategy? What role is the new Invest Ottawa organization playing in facilitating growth and investment in this community? What roadmaps are the City and Invest Ottawa following in order to achieve their goals?

Moderator:
Mark Sutcliffe, Ottawa Entrepreneur, Writer & Broadcaster

Speakers:
His Worship Jim Watson, Mayor, City of Ottawa
Bruce Lazenby, President & CEO, Invest Ottawa

If there is one major reputation that real estate in Ottawa has had for many years, it is having a downtown office market that is usually very stable with strong government occupancy in a wide range of generally older buildings. This session will examine the all the major trends affecting supply and demand. How has this market sector performed over the past year? To what extent are rents and vacancy moving up, down, or staying firm? What is the outlook for 2013 in terms of inventory growth and leasing activity? How much new development is anticipated and when? What will be the impact of federal government real estate activities on the office market? What will be the effect of the reduction of 4,800 federal positions in the National Capital Region over the next two to three years? Who might be at risk and within what time frame? How are Class B and C buildings competing with Class A space at this time? What is the effect of Gatineau’s vacancy rate at below 2%?

Moderator:
Sandy McNair, President, Altus InSite

(Please email Sandy McNair to request PowerPoint presentation)

Panel:
Michael Church, Managing Director, Principal, Ottawa, Avison Young
Stephen Nicoletti, Managing Director, Eastern Canada, Manulife Financial Real Estate
Bob Perkins, Senior Vice President, The Taggart Group
Brian Wallace, Director of Office Leasing, Oxford Properties Group Inc.

SESSION A2:
THE CHANGING RETAIL LANDSCAPE IN OTTAWA: A LOOK AT SOME MAJOR PROJECTS, THE ENTRY OF FOREIGN TENANTS, AND OTHER TRENDS

The session will open with a short overview presentation on the retail market in Ottawa. While this asset class continues to demonstrate some leasing strength, what does the future hold? How is the supply and demand balance at this time with respect to the various types of retail formats being offered, tenant interest in this market, and consumer preferences? How many major foreign tenants are coming into the Ottawa market? Three of the four major regional centres have developed plans to revitalize their properties. That is in addition to the transformation of Lansdowne Park into a world class venue and the new discount outlet centre. What is driving all of this activity?

Moderator:
Cindy VanBuskirk, General Manager, Rideau Centre

Panel:
Ulf Bergner, Vice President, Leasing, Central Region, Ivanhoé Cambridge
Bryce Dymond, Principal, Northwest Atlantic (Canada) Inc.
Sal Iacono, Senior Vice President, Development and Eastern Portfolio Manager, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited
Barry Nabatian, Director, Market Research Division, Shore-Tanner & Associates

LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS

An overview and brief discussion about the federal government’s office accommodation portfolio with the National Capital Region. What are some of the key challenges that PWGSC is facing and must address?

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT B1 OR B2)

SESSION B1:
MIXED-USE, INTENSIFICATION, AND CONDOMINIUMS: WHAT ARE THE DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES IN THE OTTAWA MARKET?

This session will examine the growing trend of intensification, renewal and redevelopment within the Ottawa market, ranging from mixed-use activity to condominiums and tall buildings in general. The discussion will begin with a brief understanding of what is driving these forms of development. Why are mixed-use developments increasingly being considered? What are the challenges and how do you address them? How robust is the condominium market in the downtown and other communities within the Ottawa region? What is the outlook for the demand for this type of housing? What impact is the new LRT likely to have on activity? How are municipal policies affecting the potential for mixed-use projects and intensification in general? Where is the cost of development heading given the increasing construction costs, land values and municipal development charges? How do you deal with the situation where an engaged population wants to minimize urban sprawl vs. concerns about greater density in existing neighbourhoods?

Moderator:
Michael Polowin, Partner, Gowling Lafleur Henderson LLP

Panel:
Richard Chmiel, Principal, Richard Chmiel Architect & Associates Incorporated

Margaret Knowles, Senior Vice President, Development, Morguard Investments Limited

Miguel Tremblay, Manager, Development Planning, FoTenn Consultants Inc.

SESSION B2:
THE OFFICE MARKETS IN KANATA VS. OTTAWA EAST: ARE THEY HOLDING THEIR OWN? ARE ANY SURPRISES ON THE HORIZON?

At opposite ends to the downtown office markets are Kanata and Ottawa East. The west end suburb appears to have finally shrugged off the effects of the technology crash from a decade ago with a vacancy rate in 2012 that has settled in the 7% range and created a balanced market. What have been the major factors contributing to this performance? To what extent has it been helped by the moves of former tenants to Kanata from the Nortel Networks campus in Nepean? Could this balanced market be threatened by potential job cuts in Ottawa by RIM? How is the much smaller east-end market doing? Office vacancies in this area are in the 3.5% range, a slight improvement over 2011. This session will also examine the pending 300 acre development in Rockcliffe which has a stated mission “to create an exemplary diverse contemporary neighbourhood offering a choice in housing, employment, commercial, institutional and leisure activities, which will be defined by the site’s unique setting, along with a commitment to environmental sustainability and long-term economic viability.

Moderator:
Kelvin Holmes, Managing Director, Ottawa, Colliers International

Panel:
Brent Arseneau, Leasing Manager, Broker of Record, Colonnade Management
Don Schultz, Director, Real Estate, Rockcliffe, Canada Lands Company Limited

Dan Gray, Vice President, Leasing, Bentall Kennedy (Canada) LP 
Martin Vandewouw, President, KRP Development Corporation

The closing session of the Ottawa Forum will be a little different this year. The panel will include second generation executives from some of the original Ottawa real estate family companies who will discuss their corporate beginnings, how objectives have changed over the years, and offer some interesting and entertaining tales from the past and present. 
They will offer their insights on what they see occurring over the next twelve months, their strategic thinking going forward, and some perspectives on what lies ahead for the market in the National Capital Region. Among the other questions to be examined:

• How has the industry changed from your families earlier beginnings in Ottawa? What would your corporate forefathers think of real estate ownership and development today?
• What are the most significant challenges, trends, risks and opportunities for private family investors and owners in the Ottawa market? Is real estate too corporate for the family succession?
• What plans do you have with your company whether in real estate or other industries? What will be your real estate strategy for 2013 and beyond in this market?
• Where are we in the investment and leasing cycles? Where are cap rates heading? Can more compression be anticipated?
• What asset classes will likely offer the best possible returns in 2013?
• What political and business changes does Ottawa need in order to reach its ultimate potential?
• Is Ottawa heading in the right direction?

Moderators:
Cal Kirkpatrick, President, Colonnade Development
Nathan Smith, Broker, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets Group, Cushman & Wakefield Ottawa

Panel: 
Steve Kaminski, President, Colonnade Management; Director, Colonnade Group of Companies
Paul Taggart, President, Taggart Realty Management Inc.
Arnie Vered, President, Arnon Corporation and Ron Engineering & Construction 
Jonathan Westeinde, Managing Partner, Windmill Developments