Platinum

Principal

National Green

Platinum

Gold

Thursday, October 10, 2013

7:15 AM
REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

8:00 a.m.
WELCOME AND OPENING REMARKS

Introduction:
Pierre Azzi
, President, BOMA Ottawa

Forum Chairman:
Nathan Smith
, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets Group, Cushman & Wakefield Ottawa


8:00 a.m.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR OTTAWA: HOW WILL THE MARKET PERFORM IN 2014 GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IS EMERGING?

How will the Canadian and global economies perform in 2014? What are the potential implications of the volatility in the EuroZone and emerging markets? Is the U.S. recovery sustainable? How could these trends affect Canada and eventually the National Capital Region? When one examines the major fundamentals, what is the outlook for the Canadian economy for the short and medium term? What impact are the 10,000 immigrants per year having on the Ottawa economy? How do the prospects for Ottawa compare with other major Canadian cities?

Speaker:
Mario Lefebvre
, Director, Centre for Municipal Studies, Conference Board of Canada


8:40 AM
BEYOND THE PUBLIC SECTOR: WHAT ARE THE OTHER MAJOR ENGINES OF THE ECONOMY IN OTTAWA? HOW MUCH JOB GROWTH CAN BE EXPECTED?

Are there any major job creation drivers in this market other than the public sector? What is the outlook for employment, population, and economic growth for Ottawa?

  • Technology hub: 1,700 companies with a strong focus on defense, security, video and other sectors
  • What other high profile tenants are being courted to come to Ottawa? What efforts are being done to sell the City’s highly mobilized workforce and quality of life?
  • What jobs are being created at the higher levels?
  • To what extent is there an increase in diversification in Ottawa’s economy? What can be done to increase this trend?

Speaker: 
Bruce Lazenby, President & CEO, Invest Ottawa

To view presentation, please click here and view “Why Ottawa Presentation”.


9:10 AM
KEYNOTE SPEAKER: THE EVOLUTION OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

An update on the federal government’s real estate requirements and strategies for the National Capital Region including: leasing and development plans; occupancy strategies for downtown Ottawa, the East end, Gatineau, and Kanata; and the vision for the workplace for federal employees.

Speaker:

Pierre-Marc Mongeau 
Assistant Deputy Minister, Real Property Branch, 
Public Works & Government Services Canada

9:40 AM
MORNING REFRESHMENTS

10:10 AM
KEYNOTE PRESENTATION: CHANGING THE FACE OF OTTAWA: CAN THE CITY GROW TO 1.5 MILLION THIRTY YEARS FROM NOW? HOW WILL WE GET THERE?

As Ottawa moulds itself into a metropolitan area with a population of over one million, the City is implementing a series of key initiatives and planning policies that have implications on growth and development. These include the new comprehensive zoning by-law, the five year Official Plan review, including expansion of the Urban Boundary and the new regulatory landscape within the City, Development Charges Review, the Employment Land Strategy, and various Community Design Plans. This presentation will examine many of these strategies. Discussion will then follow on how these policies have and will impact the intensification and urbanization of Ottawa. Can the City afford to keep growing the way that it has been growing or does anything need to change? Where is the growth currently going? Has City Hall led, followed or gotten in the way? Will infill developments significantly increase since 75% of the City’s growth is suppose to take place inside the greenbelt? How do Community Design Plan work? Do they provide certainty? How is the LRT construction progressing? Are there many development opportunities emerging along this public transit line? Where is the centre of Ottawa today? Where will it be 30 years from now when it is a city of 1.5 million?

Moderator:
Michael Polowin, Partner, Gowling Lafleur Henderson LLP

Guest Speaker:

George Dark, Partner, Urban Strategies Inc. This globally active urban planning and design firm has been active in Ottawa for the past fifteen years, having completed the Downtown Ottawa Urban Design Strategy, The Escarpment District Plan, The King Edward Precinct Plan, The University of Ottawa Masterplan, The Tremblay Road LRT Station Area Plan, The Lees LRT Station Area Plan, The Centretown Community Design Plan, and the ongoing Scott Street Community Design Plan.

George has also provided direction advice to the City of Ottawa related to the Preston Carling Reurbanization, the City of Ottawa Design Review Panel and as the Chair of the Lansdowne Park Strategic Direction and Design Review Panel. He organized and was the Jury Chair for the International Park Competition at the Lansdowne site.

NOTICE REGARDING USE OF POWERPOINT: Use is limited to reference purposes only for conference attendees. Please do not use, copy or recreate in any other purpose.

The Municipal Perspective:

Councillor Peter Hume 
Chair of the Planning Committee and Member of the 
Finance and Economic Development Committee and the Environment Committee

11:20 AM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT A1, A2 OR A3)
SESSION A1:
EXAMINING THE DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET: MOVING INTO UNCHARTERED WATERS?

Ottawa’s downtown has generally had a reputation of a rather stable office market with strong government occupancy in a wide range of generally older buildings. This session will examine some of the current major trends that may be affecting this supply and demand balance. What will be the impact of federal government real estate activities and staff reductions on the downtown over the next two to three years? Who might be at risk and within what time frame? With millions of square feet of new space coming on stream for PWGSC coupled with the current staff reductions, how will this downsizing differ from the history of 1994-1998? To what extent are rents moving down and vacancy rising? What is the outlook for 2014 in terms of inventory growth and leasing activity? How much new development is anticipated and when? What changes are surfacing within the corporate workplace? How might these affect office demand? What is the effect of Gatineau’s vacancy rate at below 2%?

Moderator:
Sandy McNair, President, Altus InSite

To inquire about obtaining a copy of Sandy McNair’s PowerPoint, please click here.

Panel:
Lisa Lafave, Senior Portfolio Manager, Real Estate, HOOPP
Bernie Myers, Vice President, Eastern Canada, Office/Industrial, Morguard
David Pridham, Director, Leasing, Bentall Kennedy (Canada) LP
Brian Wallace, Director, Office Leasing, Oxford Properties Group Inc.


SESSION A2:
HOW STRONG IS THE APARTMENT MARKET? WHY IS IT ATTRACTING SO MUCH INVESTOR INTEREST? IS STUDENT HOUSING ON THE RISE?

This session will examine the major trends in demand, supply and investment activity in the Ottawa apartment market. Among the questions that will be examined: what is the short and medium term outlook for the performance of the multi-unit residential sector; where are rental demand and vacancy rates heading over the next twelve months; what impact is the condominium market having on the apartment sector at this time and looking forward; how can you break the logjam between strong investor interest and lack of available product; is student housing a major new niche sub-market attracting strong interest; how cost effective is new rental development at this time; where are cap rates heading at this time and where are they expected to be in 2014; and what has been the impact of CMHC mortgage insurance on apartment values.

Moderator:
Aik Aliferis, Principal, Primecorp Commercial Realty Inc.

Panel:
Ugo Bizzarri, Founding Managing Director, Portfolio Management & Investments, Timbercreek Asset Management
Alfred Hendry, Chief Executive Officer, Homestead Land Holdings Limited
Mike McGahan, President, CLV Group
Patrick Whelan, Chief Operating Officer, Osgoode Properties


SESSION A3:
HOW DO OLDER OFFICE PROPERTIES COMPETE IN THIS MARKET? CAN YOU REPOSITION THESE ASSETS TO ENHANCE THEIR VALUE?

New construction only represents about a small fraction of the building stock in Ottawa. What are the options for the older more pre-dominate buildings – especially B and C class properties – with respect to improving their operational efficiencies and ensuring that their space remains competitive in the market? The Ottawa market has a large inventory of office buildings constructed in the 1970s. This session will examine the asset management, marketing, and capital strategies that could help with the occupancy of older existing office properties and maintaining their optimum NAV. The challenge of repositioning an older property will be discussed. How feasible is it to pursue LEED or BOMA BESt certification for existing buildings? Will this branding make a difference in the leasing market? A case study of 275 Slater will be presented as one answer to these questions.

Moderator:
Paul Bennett, Vice President, Broker, Colliers International

Panel:
Sam Barbieri, Senior Vice President, Asset Management, LaSalle Investment Management
Stephen Nicoletti, Managing Director, Eastern Canada, Manulife Real Estate
Bob Perkins, Past President, BOMA Ottawa
Rodney Wilts, Partner, Windmill Developments/BuildGreen Solutions

12:20 PM
LUNCHEON
LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS

1:20 PM
STRATEGIES FOR GROWTH, INVESTMENT & DEVELOPMENT FOR OTTAWA: AN UPDATE FROM THE MAYOR

As the population of the National Capital Region reaches 1.3 million, an update from the Mayor of Ottawa on his vision for the City to attract and facilitate ongoing growth in this market. What planning policies and infrastructure projects is the City implementing as part of this strategy? Why would someone come and invest in Ottawa?

Moderator: 
Mark Sutcliffe
, Ottawa Entrepreneur, Writer & Broadcaster

Speaker:

His Worship Jim Watson
Mayor
City of Ottawa

2:00 PM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT B1, B2 OR B3)
SESSION B1:
THE CHANGING RETAIL LANDSCAPE IN OTTAWA: A LOOK AT SOME OF THE MAJOR PROJECTS, THE ENTRY OF FOREIGN TENANTS, AND OTHER TRENDS

The session will open with a short overview presentation on the retail market in Ottawa. While this asset class continues to demonstrate some leasing strength, what does the future hold? How is the supply and demand balance at this time with respect to the various types of retail formats being offered, tenant interest in this market, and consumer preferences? How many major foreign tenants are coming into the Ottawa market? Three of the four major regional centres are undergoing revitalization plans to expand and improve their properties. That is in addition to the transformation of Lansdowne Park into a world class venue, the new Tanger discount outlet centre, and the emergence of urban retail in mixed-use developments across the inner city areas. What is driving all of this activity? How are tenants responding to these opportunities? Is there any potential for the Ottawa market to become over-stored?

Moderator:
Richard Getz, Vice President, Retail, Colonnade Development

Panel:
Glenn Featherstone, Vice President, Retail Leasing, Morguard
George Fiddler, Senior Vice President, Retail – Central North America, Ivanhoé Cambridge

Lawrence Hildebrand, Principal, Northwest Atlantic (Canada) Inc.
Cindy VanBuskirk, General Manager, Rideau Centre

SESSION B2:
THE SUBURBAN OFFICE MARKETS IN THE WEST VS. THE EAST: ARE SOME SURPRISES LURKING ON THE HORIZON?

At opposite ends to the downtown office markets are Kanata and Ottawa East. The west end suburb appears to have finally shrugged off the effects of the technology crash from a decade ago with a vacancy rate in 2013 that has settled in the 8.5% range and created a balanced market. What have been the major factors contributing to this performance? To what extent has it been helped by the moves of former tenants to Kanata from the Nortel Networks campus in Nepean? Could this balanced market be threatened by potential job cuts in Ottawa by RIM? How is the much smaller east-end market doing? Office vacancies in this area are now in the 6% range, a jump from 3.5% in 2012. How will PWGSC’s decision about the Nortel campus in the west end and its potential decisions on some of its east end properties impact both markets?

Moderator:
Michael Church, Principal & Managing Director, Avison Young

Panel:
Brent Arseneau, Leasing Manager, Colonnade Management
Dan Gray, Vice President, Leasing, Bentall Kennedy (Canada) LP
Stan Humphreys, Director, Leasing, Cominar REIT
Gordon Wadley, Director, Leasing, Dundee Realty Management Corp.

SESSION B3:
WHERE ARE THE CREDIT MARKETS HEADING? WHAT IMPACT ARE THEY HAVING ON PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS, REITS AND PRIVATE INVESTORS?

This session will examine a wide range of trends related to the unpredictability of the credit markets. While BOC’s interest rates continue to remain at record lows, long term bond yields have started to rise since May. What impact has this trend had on debt spreads and the cost of capital? When will Canadian interest rates likely increase? Are there any issues facing construction, development or long term financing that investors need to know at this time? Are there any major differences between tier one lenders and secondary sources of capital? On this the 20th anniversary of REITs, a record number of 16 IPOs have been launched since the beginning of the year. Why is this happening? Has the rise in bond yields created an issue for REITs? How strong is the investor interest in private equity funds in this market environment? Who has the greatest competitive advantage: REITs? Private investors? Private equity funds? Pension funds?

Moderator & Overview Presentation:
Steve McEwen, Managing Director, CMLS Financial

Speakers:
Hugh Gorman, Principal, Bridgeport Realty Capital Partners 
Michel Léonard, President, CEO and Trustee, BTB REIT

AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS

3:00 PM
EXECUTIVE ROUNDTABLE ON THE OTTAWA MARKET:
HOW DO INVESTORS ASSESS THE CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS FOR 2014 AND BEYOND?

A discussion with senior real estate executives as they provide their perspective on real estate market fundamentals for 2014 and beyond for the Ottawa market and Canada as a whole. They will offer their insights on what they see occurring over the next twelve months, and their strategic thinking going forward. The session will open with a brief examination of some of the benchmark investment transactions in Ottawa over the past twelve months. Among the other questions to be examined:

  • What are the most significant challenges, trends, risks and opportunities for investors and owners in the Ottawa market?
  • What information do they need and what issues do they need to resolve in order to do a deal in this market?
  • What are you buying or selling, where are you buying or selling, and why are you buying or selling?
  • What plans do you have with respect your existing Ottawa portfolio; and what will be your strategy for 2014 and beyond in this market?
  • What changes do you expect in the credit and capital markets over the next twelve months? What will be the key determinants of such a change?
  • What, if anything, will be done differently now as a result of these factors?
  • Where are we in the cycle? Where are cap rates heading?
  • What can be expected with respect to investment velocity, deal flow and a return to greater liquidity?
  • How do you achieve growth in rental rates in this market?
  • What property classes will likely offer the best possible returns in 2014?
  • What needs to change in order for Ottawa to reach its ultimate potential?

Moderator:
Nathan Smith, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets Group, Cushman & Wakefield Ottawa

Panel:
Steven Marino, Vice President, Investments, GWL Realty Advisors Inc.
Joe Mazzocco, Partner, Investments, KingSett Capital 
Blair McCreadie, Head of Canadian Real Estate, Standard Life Investments (Real Estate) Inc.
John McKinlay, Senior Vice President, Acquisitions, Bentall Kennedy (Canada) LP 
Greg Rogers, Executive Vice President, Investments, Minto Properties Inc.


4:00 PM
NETWORKING RECEPTION