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Oil and commodity prices continue their slump and manufacturing is experiencing some challenges. Geopolitical instability is shaking global markets as uncertainty abounds. Where are U.S. and Canadian interest rates likely to be heading in 2020? This presentation will examine the economic outlook for Canada including GDP and employment growth; interest, currency and inflation rates; energy and commodity prices over the rest of the year, and the implications for household and government balance sheets.
Benjamin Tal, Managing Director & Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC Capital Markets
Climate change is real and so is its effect on business. How can we assess the attributable impact of climate change on supply chains, infrastructure, human health and the natural environment? What are the real costs? How can businesses reduce the risks, build
resilience and identify new opportunities?
Nik Steinberg, Director of Analytics, Four Twenty Seven. As a climate and water risk specialist, he focuses on ways to assess climate and development induced risk.
Picking stock market highs and cap rate inflection points can produce short term wealth, but do not guarantee long-term success. As an industry, we tend to fixate on cyclical issues. Most notably, our position in the economic cycle. Meanwhile, decades of falling interest rates have helped fuel an unprecedented commercial real estate boom which is now confronting the greatest challenge in a generation – climate change. This presentation will examine several of the longer-term, structural trends facing commercial real estate and the challenges and opportunities on offer.
Paul Morassutti, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited
A wide-ranging panel discussion will examine the strategic deployment of capital in real estate and other alternatives for the year ahead. The participants will offer their views from different points on the compass as they comment on the cost of capital, the credit market environment and what they foresee in 2020 and beyond. What risks vs. opportunities are emerging at this time; has investor in real estate allocations peaked or is it still growing; and where will the real estate asset class fit relative to all other investment strategies and opportunities for the year ahead. Will the low interest rate environment shift at all over the next twenty-four months? Is
fixed income becoming a favoured alternative yet? What is different today than a year ago? Is capital chasing yield? What’s better for the long term: a high yield fund or a core fund?
Lesley Gibson, Chief Financial Officer, CT REIT
Jamie Ziegel, Managing Director & Head of Property Brokerage, TD Securities
Christine Filgiano, Executive Vice President, Portfolio Construction & Risk Management, Ivanhoé Cambridge
Kristi Mitchem, CEO & Head, BMO Global Asset Management (invited)
Dean Orrico, President & Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Group
Benjamin Tal, Managing Director & Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC World Markets Inc.
Jeffrey Thompson, Executive Vice President & Portfolio Manager, PIMCO
A cross-section of major Canadian commercial lenders will provide an updateon their underwriting practices and deployment of debt capital in 2020.What issues are major lenders beginning to face at this time? What are theirstrategies for this year? Questions they will address include: How are interestrates, bond yields and cost of capital affecting your activity? What criteria are your teams using to issue loans? To what extent have you increased your expectations, greater stress testing, and underwriting practices from 2019? How is geography affecting your strategies? How are lenders evaluating deals intoday’s market? How is risk being priced in 2020? What is happening with loanspreads, amortization periods, loan to value ratios, and recourse financing? What property classes are you perhaps avoiding, reducing exposure to, or increasing pricing for? Is technology starting to affect your activities?
Teresa Neto, Chief Financial Officer, Granite REIT
Peter Block, Market Vice President & Head, Real Estate Corporate Banking, CIBC
Roy Lall, Senior Director & Team Head, Real Estate Lending, Otéra Capital
Kris Ljubic, Managing Director, Origination, Mortgage Investments, The Canada Life Assurance Company
Ken McKinnon, Managing Director & Head, Real Estate Corporate Banking, TD Securities
Jim Ward, Senior Vice President, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Canada
As we enter what could be the latter innings of this significant bull run on real estate, do macro fundamentals still matter or is it now all about the micro characteristics of a particular deal? An insightful discussion as it pertains to underwriting particular property types, different geographic markets, and the importance of asset management strategies. Are all industrial and multi-residential opportunities good, and all retail ones bad? Under what criteria does Calgary or Edmonton office make sense? What about underwriting development activity? Are Toronto and Vancouver priced to perfection while Montreal has much more upside?
Colin Johnston, President, Research Valuation & Advisory, Altus Group
Sam Brown, Senior Vice President, Origination & Product Development, CMLS Capital
Christina Iacoucci, Managing Director, Portfolio Management, BentallGreenOak
Paul Miron, Vice President, Product, Commercial Solutions, FCT
Jeremy Wedgbury, Senior Vice President, Commercial Mortgages, First National Financial LP
Equity financing is growing significantly across Canada and from a wide range of sources. With billions of dollars looking for investment and income opportunities in commercial and multi-family markets, there has been a strong growth in investment management funds to deploy capital into assets and development in an equity position. This session will thoroughly examine this portion of the real estate market including: Who are primary sources of equity capital? What are examples of various deal structures? How do they partner with people who bring them opportunities, e.g. acquisition, development, repurposing a property? Under what circumstances is equity combined with debt into the deal structure to get the weighted cost of capital down? What are other ways in which equity is engaged? What yields are equity investors looking for under various scenarios?
Hugh Gorman, Chief Executive Officer, Colonnade BridgePort
Colin Baryliuk, Executive Managing Director, Investments, KingSett Capital
Jenny Li, Managing Director, North American Real Estate, BMO Capital Markets
Scott MacPherson, Managing Director, Equity, Debt and Structured Finance Group, Cushman & Wakefield
Michael Tsourounis, Managing Director, Real Estate Investment Management, Timbercreek
This panel will examine the trends and issues related to raising debt, equity and accessto other capital from the perspectives of REITs, private equity funds, and other real estate owners and investors. How are they managing their balance sheets in this very competitive and rising interest rate environment? Among the questions that will be addressed:
Peter Sweeney, Chief Financial Officer, SmartCentres REIT
Melanie Ducholke, Chief Financial Officer, Camgill Development Corporation
Scott Fischer, Chief Financial Officer, KingSett Capital
Heather Kirk, Executive Vice President & CFO, Cominar REIT
Qi Tang, Senior Vice President & CFO, RioCan REIT
Responsible investment is accelerating and describes the broad range of approaches thatcan be used to incorporate environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations into the investment process. This is now accelerating as a significantly important metric that applies to all real estate companies regardless of where you are on the point of acompass. The considerations include: how does a company act as an environmental steward? How does a company treat employees, customers and communities? How does an organization govern itself? Increasingly, companies are being asked to disclose and manage their ESG performance. This TEDx style session will examine the what, why and how of ESG, investor and regulatory sentiments around the world, and the frame works used. What are the complexities of these various metrics? How are organizations using this information within their financing, investment and development decision-making? How is it shaping an organization’s processes, policies and overall culture? What is the business case for strong ESG practices? What is the view of standard, operators and investors of ESG in today’s market?
Michael Brooks, Chief Executive Officer, Real Property Association of Canada
Anna Murray, Vice President, Sustainable Investing, BentallGreenOak (Canada) LP
Neil Pegram, Director, Americas, GRESB BV
Across Canada, urban revitalization and development continues on an unprecedented scale not seen for over 30 years. For many companies, development is a key growth strategy in today’s market along with repurposing existing assets and renewing the built environment. But with increasing land and construction costs in many markets, is the proforma starting to change and associated risk increasing? Are there particular concerns with multi-residential markets – from purpose-built rental to condominiums? Is the market overextending itself in some cities? For a lender, how high is your level of caution and risk assessment in construction lending activities? How does it compare with financing land acquisitions? How does did it vary from city to city and among specific asset classes? This session will offer some insights on these and other questions on what may lie ahead forthe financing of construction and land acquisitions for 2020. What are lenders’ pre-sale or pre-leasing and covenant requirements and where will they be heading in the next twelve months? How are lenders pricing risk for this type of financing? What underwriting practices are they using to evaluate projects?
Jonah Brown, Director, Mortgage Origination, Canada ICI
Michael Carragher, Vice President, Mortgage Investments, Firm Capital
Eric Horie, Senior Vice President, Head of Origination, Canada, Trez Capital
Bruno Iacovetta, Managing Director, Development Finance Group, MCAP
Noah Mintz, Managing Director & Principal, Vector Financial Services
Development is one of the key growth strategies for real estate organizations in today’s market. From REITs and institutional investors to entrepreneurs and investment funds, the economics of building new assets have been compelling when compared with cap rates to buy existing ones. How sustainable is the demand for more purpose built rental, office, industrial, retail and mixed-use development? With rising land and construction costs, is the pro forma starting to change and associated risk increasing? Do lenders and CFOs have a reason to approach this trend with greater caution and an increase in risk assessment? What have been the “actual” returns and real value creation of development? Are owners making appropriate profit from development to compensate investors and lenders for the level of risk? How do you manage the lack of cash flow during development? How should one balance expected strong NAV growth from development with possible low growth in cash flow upon completion?
Casey Gallagher, Executive Vice President, National Investment Team, CBRE Limited
Marlon Bray, Senior Director, Cost & Project Management, Altus Group
Heather Grey-Wolf, Senior Vice President, Development & Stakeholder Relations, Capital Developments
Frank Ottavino, Managing Director & Head of Real Estate, Corporate Banking Canada, Scotiabank
Cecilia Williams, Executive Vice President & CFO, Allied Properties REIT
Lending practices of major banks have been affected by the plethora of policies issued by OFSI, Basel III’s regulatory framework, CMHC mortgage insurance changes and BOC monetary policies. Secondary sources of capital are playing an increasing role in commercial real estate financing. This session will examine the trends, availability, and cost of debt from these alternative sources. How are they able to compete successfully vs. major banks? What is the range in the size of their deals, e.g. how many loans are for an asset valued at $20M or less, what changes when the financing covers a portfolio? What are their loan origination and underwriting strategies, e.g. preferably to whom, in which markets, and for what property classes? Do they finance properties that could out of favour with major lenders? How is risk being priced? What are their spreads, amortization periods, LTV ratios, and recourse?
Randy Buckley, Vice President, Murray & Company Limited
Blake Cassidy, Managing Partner, Romspen Investment Corporation
Kasey Chauhan, Vice President, Origination, Equitable Bank
Caroline Rauhala, Director, Lending, Vancity Community Investment Bank
Paul Scholz, Managing Director, Credit, Institutional Mortgage Capital
An insightful discussion about investment activity in today’s very competitive market environment. The panel will offer insights on all four major “food groups”: office, industrial, retail and multi-unit residential. What challenges could there be in order to buy or sell any of these properties in each of these asset classes during 2020? What are the differences that an investor would have as a REIT vs. a pension fund vs. a private equity fund in selling or acquiring any of these properties at this time? Which gateway cities or mid-markets are most attractive? How are investment programs being financed going forward? How much equity is available and from what sources for investment transactions? Where will Canadian cap rates be by the end of 2020 in each asset class relative to today’s prices? Who will be the likely sellers? Which asset classes will be most favoured? Will shifting bond yields and low interest rates affect investment strategies and, if so, in what way?
Peter Senst, President, Canadian Capital Markets, CBRE Limited
Ugo Bizzarri, Senior Managing Director, CIO & Global Head of Direct and Debt Investments, Timbercreek
Randy Hoffman, Head of Investments (Canada), Oxford Properties Group Inc.
Jaime McKenna, Managing Director, Group Head for Real Estate, Fengate Asset Management
William Secnik, Senior Vice President, Investments, Fiera Real Estate Investments Limited
An insightful discussion with a diversified group of senior real estate executives on their perspective for Canadian and global real estate fundamentals, trends, and strategies for 2020. How will Canada perform relative to the U.S., Europe and other markets? What will be key challenges facing real estate executives over the next twelve months? What are their expectations of the capital and credit markets in supporting their portfolio growth? What impact will this have on cap rates and real estate values? Which cities are attracting their attention due to employment growth? What are they seeing in capital, financial and real estate markets outside of Canada? To what extent are assets now fully priced in major Canada markets? Where are the most attractive opportunities for investors and developers? How much importance has ESG in their activity? To what extent is technology and innovation a major focus within their leadership team?
Lesley Gibson, Chief Financial Officer, CT REIT
Jamie Ziegel, Managing Director & Head of Property Brokerage, TD Securities
Don Clow, President & CEO, Crombie REIT
Paul Finkbeiner, Global Head of Real Estate, Great-West LIFECO (invited)
Kevin Leon, President, Crestpoint Real Estate Investments Ltd.
Qahir Madhany, Managing Director, Real Estate Group, Blackstone
Chris Niehaus, Managing Partner, BentallGreenOak