Program Archive

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Title

Principal

Gold

7:00 AM
REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

7:30 AM
CANADIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
2011: YEAR IN REVIEW – A SNAPSHOT OF THE YEAR THAT WAS

Stefan Ciotlos, President, CBRE Limited

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE ECONOMY FOR 2012 AND BEYOND: IS THERE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL OR CAN WE EXPECT MORE TURBULENCE AHEAD?

An examination of the economic outlook for North America including GDP and employment growth, capital market liquidity, interest rate trends, energy prices, rates of inflation, and currency values. Is the U.S. on the road to recovery in 2012 or will its economy continue to limp along? What could be the impact of the European debt crisis have on Canada and the rest of the world? How is the outlook for growth in China, India and other major emerging markets at this time? What are the implications of all these trends and issues for Canada?

Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank

THE CANADIAN AND U.S POLITICAL OUTLOOK: NOW WHAT?

A discussion on how the national political landscapes are evolving in both Canada and the United States. What is likely going to happen in the U.S. as we head into an election year? How will this affect North American related policies? What does the future hold for the Conservatives, NDP, Liberals and Bloc Quebecois respectively in Canada?

Andrew Coyne, National Columnist, Post Media / National Post

THE OUTLOOK FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE AND DEAL FLOW ACROSS CANADA: CAN WE REPEAT THE EXPERIENCE OF 2011 AGAIN IN 2012?

An overview of key commercial real estate leasing and investment trends across Canada in the office, industrial, retail, hotel and multi-residential sectors. How did they perform in 2011? What is the outlook for 2012? What have been the most significant implications of cheap debt and abundant capital on cap rates and transaction activity? How will the leasing markets perform going forward?

John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited

Click here to access the CBRE Canadian Market Outlook Breakfast presentations


9:30 a.m.
YIELD VS. RISK IN 2012: WILL STRONG CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE REAL ESTATE AND DEBT MARKETS CONTINUE? WILL CMBS MAKE A COMEBACK?

A wide ranging panel discussion will examine the strategic deployment of capital and asset allocation into the real estate markets in the current environment. The participants will offer their views from different points on the compass as they comment on the current capital and credit market environment; what they foresee in 2012 and beyond; what risks and opportunities are emerging at this time; in what markets and in what form they would favour deploying capital; and where the real estate asset class fits relative to all their other investment opportunities for the year ahead. How much interest and appeal is there in owning commercial real estate debt? As capital continues to search for yield, will real estate continue to be attractive? Is there any likelihood that CMBS market will make a comeback? 

Moderators: 
Bill Jandrisits, President & CEO, MCAN Mortgage Corporation
Bart Munn, CFO, Calloway REIT

Panel: 
Brydon Cruise, President & Managing Partner, Brookfield Financial
Ethan Penner, Executive Managing Director and President, CBRE Capital Partners
Jerome Silvey, Executive Vice President and CFO, Starwood Capital Group
Moray Tawse, Vice President, Investments, First National Financial LP


10:30 a.m.
MORNING REFRESHMENTS

10:50 AM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT A1, A2, OR A3)
SESSION A1:
TIER ONE LENDERS’ ROUNDTABLE: THE MARKET FOR MEDIUM AND LARGER LOANS AND MAJOR CENTRES

The panel will provide an update on the underwriting practices and deployment of debt capital in the Canadian market among a cross-section of major lenders. In 2011, they faced stronger competition as allocations increased in some instances from 25% to 40%, amortizations from 20 to 25 years, and LTV ratios from 60% to 70% levels. What will happen in 2012? The discussion will open with a brief overview of a national annual survey of the Canadian commercial mortgage market activity. This session will then focus on what borrowers should expect to see in this coming year. Some of the additional questions that will be examined:

  • Who will be the major providers of debt in Canada and what will they be looking for?
  • What impact will Basel III and OFSI’s push for greater diversification have on the commercial lending activities of major institutional lenders?
  • How will the strategies of banks, insurance companies, pension funds and other institutions vary from those of private sources of debt capital? Where are they looking for their greatest returns?
  • How are lenders evaluating a deal in today’s market? How is risk being priced now? What is happening with loan spreads, amortization periods, loan to value ratios, and recourse financing?
  • What property classes are lenders avoiding, reducing exposure to, or increasing pricing for?

Moderator: 
Mark Achtemichuk, 
Director, Mortgage Valuation, Canadian Mortgage Loan Services Ltd.

Panel: 
Richard Brownscombe, 
President & CEO, Montrose Mortgage Corporation Ltd.
Phil Gillin, Senior Managing Director & Head, Canadian Property Investments, Sun Life Financial
David Grieve, Senior Portfolio Manager, Mortgage Investments, AIMCo
Brad Lambert, Regional Vice President, Real Estate Markets – Ontario, Royal Bank of Canada

Jeremy Wedgbury, Managing Director, Commercial Mortgages, First National Financial LP 


SESSION A2:
THE STRATEGIC SHIFT FROM FOCUSING ON RETURN TO LIMITING RISK: WHAT ARE INVESTOR PRIORITIES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY?

The last twelve months have seen the beginning of some major swings in global capital flows. Leading into 2011, many foreign lenders had continued their return to the commercial mortgage markets and foreign investors deployed their large sources of capital. 
However, what has transpired over the past year due to concerns over the economic condition of Europe, the continued sluggishness of the U.S. economy, and the signs of some weakening in major emerging markets? How do you manage risk in today’s global market? How much of a change has there been in investor philosophy? How are investors playing the international property markets now? How much volatility are they able to accept? With the flight of capital towards quality assets, how far outside of these parameters are investors and lenders prepared to move? To what extent are investors focusing on specific cities rather than broader markets? What other significant trends in the global property market do you need to be aware of? What is the outlook for debt, equity and capital markets for 2012 from the perspective of global players?

Moderator: 
Allan Kimberley
, Vice Chairman & Managing Director, CIBC World Markets Inc.

Panel: 
Marc Lemaire
, Senior Vice President, Real Estate Investment Funds, Ivanhoé Cambridge
Michael McLaughlin, U.S. Country Head and President, Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.
Will Stevens, Managing Principal & Senior Managing Director, Guggenheim Real Estate LLC


SESSION A3
VALUATION – WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES IN TODAY’S MARKET? WHAT HAS HAD THE GREATEST IMPACT ON ASSET VALUES?

As capital pours into Canadian REITs, these securitized entities are well capitalized, have balanced debt maturity profiles, and generally have high-quality assets, which are easier to refinance. Following the significant turbulence of 2008 that peaked in early 2009, REITs have raised billions of dollars for their war chests over the past twenty months and their unit values have roared back. Is this performance sustainable is now the question among investors and REIT management? Has the market discounted the future? What returns are unit holders, portfolio managers and analysts expecting? A few years ago, strong growth potential was a key criteria in selecting REITs. Then the criteria became safety in recent years. Who will be rewarded now going forward, e.g. those REITs and REOCs that are considered safe or those who are have strong growth prospects?

Moderator: 
Sheila Botting, 
Partner & National Leader, Deloitte Real Estate, Deloitte & Touche LLP

Panel: 
John Busi, 
Executive Vice President & Global Co-Head, Valuation, Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.
Colin Johnston
, President, Research, Valuation & Advisory, Canada, Altus Group

David Ward, Director, Acquisitions, Morguard Investments Limited

Ted Willcocks, Global Head of Asset Management, Real Estate, Manulife Financial


11:50 AM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT B1, B2, OR B3)
SESSION B1:
HOW ARE THE CAPITAL MARKETS SERVING THE NEEDS OF THE DEBT MARKET?

This session will focus on the current environment in the capital markets for real estate debt issues. The discussion will examine the major trends in unsecured senior and subordinate debentures and rated secured mortgage bonds. 
How much demand and interest is there within the capital markets for this type of commercial real estate debt products? How strong are the allocations that investors are making to acquire this form of debt? What type of opportunities do they want to see? Are fixed income portfolio managers interested in specific types of benchmark style deals? Where is the bond market heading over the next twelve months? How much of an arbitrage is there between the capital markets and private markets? How is capital in Canada avoiding the risks of other markets?

Moderator: 
David Dulberg
, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group

Panel: 
John Harris
, Senior Portfolio Strategist, GCIC Ltd., Dynamic Mutual Funds
Anthony Foss, Vice President and Director, TD Asset Management
Altaf Nanji, Head of Canadian Credit Research, RBC Capital Markets

John Shaw, Vice President, Portfolio Management, and Portfolio Manager, CI Investments Inc.


SESSION B2:
MEETING THE DEMAND FOR SMALLER LOANS AND TIER TWO ASSETS

A significant part of the Canadian commercial mortgage market consists of properties that have financing needs in the range of $20 million or less. In some instances, these assets can be found in secondary markets while, in other cases, they represent B or C class buildings or smaller developments in larger centres. This session will examine these market situations in greater detail and how the capital and debt needs for these types of assets are being addressed. Among the questions that will be examined:

  • Who is lending at these levels, at what rates, with what kind of underwriting criteria, and to whom?
  • How is risk being priced for these smaller sized loans? What is happening with loan spreads, amortization periods, loan to value ratios, and recourse?
  • Are properties in geographic areas outside of metropolitan centres a tougher sell in 2012 or are their needs being met?
  • What is the market for B and C class properties that could be out of favour with major lenders?
  • Is there any interest in underperforming assets?

Moderator: 
Randy Buckley
, Vice President & Director, Murray & Company Limited

Panel:
Andrew Jones
, Vice President, Corporate Financing & Debt Origination, Timbercreek Asset Management Inc.

Jeffrey Lastiwka, President & CEO, JayCap Financial Ltd. 

George Mejury, Managing Director, Toronto, MCAP Commercial LP 

Chris Sharp, Managing Director, Penmor Mortgage Capital Corporation 


SESSION B3:
THE CFO PERSPECTIVE: IS CHEAP DEBT AND EQUITY A TWO EDGE SWORD? WHAT ARE THEIR MAJOR ISSUES AS BORROWERS IN THIS MARKET?

This panel will look at the trends and issues related to raising debt, credit and capital from the borrowers’ perspectives. Among the questions that will be addressed:

  • Is it still as easy to access the capital that you require in today’s market as it was a year ago? If not, then what have been the most significant changes?
  • How much debt are you carrying, when does it roll over, and how will you likely refinance?
  • What are the most key sources of capital that you are tapping?
  • Who has the lowest cost of capital now?
  • What are the borrowers’ perspectives on secured and unsecured debt?
  • Do you have any challenges with how underwriting is being done in today’s market and how lenders are pricing or trying to transfer risk? Do you sense that these are transitional measures or more structural?
  • What about new acquisitions and development? How are they being financed?
  • What is the most innovative form of financing that you have been able to obtain?

Moderator: 
Stephen Sender
Managing Director, Industry Head, Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets

Panel:
Mario Barrafato, 
Senior Vice President & CFO, Dundee Real Estate Investment Trust
Ugo Bizzarri, CFO & Managing Director, Real Estate Investments, Timbercreek Asset Management Inc. 
Larry Froom, CFO, H&R REIT 
Karen Weaver, Executive Vice President & CFO, First Capital Realty Inc.


12:50 PM
NETWORKING LUNCHEON
Wireless Survey results – please click here to view.
LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS
AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS

2:00 PM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT C1, C2 or C3)
SESSION C1:
FINANCING COMMERCIAL AND CONDOMINIUM CONSTRUCTION & DEVELOPMENT IN TODAY’S MARKET

While new condominium activity continues to remain strong in Toronto and several other markets, there has also been an increase in all other forms of new development in response to demand as well as the relative high cost of acquiring assets. Projects can range from build-to-suits, retail centres, office buildings, hotels, condominiums, and various types of mixed-use developments. This session will examine financing trends associated with these types of projects. Among the questions that will be discussed:

  • How buoyant is the market now for construction financing?
  • What are the major sources of debt financing and equity investment for this type of activity? How much capital is supporting these lending products?
  • How are lenders and investors pricing risk for this type of financing? What underwriting practices are they using to evaluate potential projects?
  • How do sources and pricing vary between build-to-suits, development for your own account, and sale leasebacks? What other significant criteria can apply to different types of assets, the project’s location and size etc.?
  • How do you protect yourself from cost overruns?
  • What are the challenges in financing mixed-use developments vs. single asset buildings?
  • To what extent are lenders concerned about the condominium market?

Moderator: 
Dan Marinovic
, Vice President, Finance, First Gulf Corporation

Panel: 
Paul Chin
, Vice President, Real Estate Lending, Loan Syndications and Capital Markets, Otéra Capital 
Benjamin Chua
, Vice President, Corporate Banking, United Overseas Bank
Carmin Di Fiore, Senior Vice President, Real Estate Banking, Bank of America / Merrill Lynch

Please contact Carmin Di Fiore(carmin.difiore@baml.comfor more information about his PowerPoint.

Stelio Zupancich, Vice President, Real Estate, TD Commercial Banking


SESSION C2:
ALTERNATE SOURCES OF CAPITAL: MEZZANINE FINANCING, DEBT FUNDS AND CMBS

Mezzanine financing, private mortgage funds and other secondary sources of capital are playing an important role in today’s real estate market. CMBS has also started to just raise its head again in the Canadian market. This session will examine the trends, availability and cost of this type of credit. What is the market for mezzanine financing and private mortgages? Who is filling this strategic gap? How is this type of financing being priced in 2012? What are their exit strategies? What is the strongest market for this type of product? How can you differentiate one fund from another? What are the underlying strategies that the sources of capital are using with respect to risk/reward/return for the deployment of these funds? What will be their priorities for 2012 by product type and market across the country? To what extent is CMBS making a comeback in Canada?

Moderator: 
Doug Podd
, Partner, Brookfield Financial

Panel: 
Michael Carragher, Vice President, Mortgage Investments, Firm Capital Corporation

Blake Cassidy, Managing Partner, Romspen Investment Corporation

Scott Coates, Managing Director, Mortgage Investments, KingSett Capital

Paul Scholz, Managing Director, Institutional Mortgage Capital


SESSION C3:
HOW CHALLENGING IS IT TO ACQUIRE ASSETS IN THIS MARKET? WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE AVAILABLE IN 2012 IN CANADA?

An insightful discussion about investment activity in today’s very competitive market environment.
The past year saw virtually a record amount of transactions since many organizations’ acquisition war chests were overflowing with cash combined with a strong search for yield by investors leaving the bond market. The panel will address a range of questions including: What will likely be the major challenges in order to buy or sell assets in this market? What are the differences, if any, between the issues faced by a REIT vs. a pension fund vs. a private equity fund vs. a foreign investor in selling or acquiring properties at this time? What information do you need in order to try to do a deal in this market? How much leverage is appropriate? Where do you project that cap rates will be by the end of 2012 relative to today’s prices? Who do you anticipate will be the likely sellers? Which product types will be most favoured by you? Which markets will be “top of mind”, and why? How much of an impact are the geo-economic trends having on your ability to do a deal?

Moderator: 
Peter Senst, 
Executive Vice President & Director, CBRE Limited

Please contact Krista Reardon (krista.reardon@cbre.com) for more information about Peter Senst’s PowerPoint.

Panel: 
Donald Clow
, President & CEO, Crombie REIT 
John Hayes, Managing Director, Blackwood Partners
Wayne Jacobs, Executive Vice President, Acquisitions, Allied Properties REIT
Jamie Manley, Portfolio Manager, CPPIB


3:00 PM
CLOSING ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION: THE LAST WORD ON CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS, LIQUIDITY, VALUES, AND DEAL FLOW IN 2012

A discussion with senior real estate and institutional executives on their perspective of Canadian real estate fundamentals, trends, opportunities and strategies for 2012; a comparative on how the Canadian market will perform in face of U.S., European and other geoeconomic conditions; their insights into what could be the key challenges facing real estate executives over the next twelve months; and their expectations of the capital and credit markets over the next twelve months.

  • What do you anticipate will happen with the credit and capital markets over the next twelve months? What will be the key determinants of such a change? What impact will this have on cap rates and real estate values?
  • What are you seeing in capital, financial and real estate markets outside of Canada, especially in the U.S. and Europe?
  • How much deal flow can be expected in the Canadian market in 2012? Have we reached the point where investing outside of the country is far more attractive than staying at home?
  • What kind of transactions will offer the best possible returns in 2012? Do you anticipate sufficient buying opportunities for your organization or will you pursue some development activity to generate more growth?
  • What, if anything, are you doing differently now as a result of these factors?
  • Who has the lowest cost of capital now? Who will be most significant winners and who will be the losers in the market in 2012?

Moderators: 
Bill Jandrisits, President & CEO, MCAN Mortgage Corporation
Bart Munn, CFO, Calloway REIT

Panel: 
Arne Arnesen, Senior Managing Director, Rockwood Capital
Michael Cooper, CEO, Dundee REIT
Blake Hutcheson, President & CEO, Oxford Properties Group Inc.
Hugh Macdonnell, Managing Director, Clarion Partners LLC
Kelly Marshall, Managing Partner, Corporate Finance, Brookfield Asset Management Inc.


4:00 PM
NETWORKING RECEPTION