Program Archive

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Title

Principal

Gold

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

7:00 AM
REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

7:30 AM
CANADIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
2012: YEAR IN REVIEW – A SNAPSHOT OF THE YEAR THAT WAS

Stefan Ciotlos, President, CBRE Limited 

TURNING POINT? OUTLOOK FOR THE CANADIAN AND GLOBAL ECONOMIES IN 2013

Will the year ahead bring more clarity and resolution to the issues constricting North American and global economic growth? This presentation will examine the economic outlook for Canada and the U.S. including GDP and employment growth, trends in interest and inflation rates, energy and commodity prices, and household and government balance sheets. Is the U.S. finally on the road to recovery in 2013 or will its economy continue to be somewhat anemic in the absence of practical bipartisan government policies? Will there finally be an outcome to the European and sovereign debt crisis? Are simmering concerns about China, India and other major emerging markets justified? What will be the implications of all these trends and issues for growth in Canada?

Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank

PARSING POLITICS: THE POLITICAL OUTLOOK FOR CANADA AND BEYOND

The political arena is awash in change. Will Canada, under the Harper government, continue to be viewed as a paragon of stability? Should the NDP get comfortable in its role of official opposition or will the Liberals, with a new leader, wrestle the mantle back? What does the new minority PQ government have in mind for Quebec? Who will assume the reigns of power in Ontario? What will the U.S. President be able to accomplish in his final term in office? One of Canada’s foremost social and political commentators will offer his thoughts on the current state of affairs in Canada and around the world.

Rex Murphy, CBC media commentator and host, National Post columnist

VIEWS FROM ACROSS THE 49TH PARALLEL: THE CANADIAN AND U.S. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

With a common border and intertwined economies, are there emerging trends in one market that will have broader real estate implications for both countries? Industry leaders from both sides of the border will discuss the outlook for the office, industrial, retail, hotel, and multi-residential markets in Canada and the U.S. Will conditions in 2013 mirror last year’s? Will liquidity remain strong? Will leasing fundamentals hold their own? Which global trends are likely to impact both nations?

Asieh Mansour, Head of Americas Research, CBRE Inc.
John O’Bryan, Chairman, CBRE Limited


9:30 a.m.
YIELD VS. RISK IN 2013: WILL STRONG CAPITAL FLOWS INTO THE REAL ESTATE AND DEBT MARKETS CONTINUE?

A wide ranging panel discussion will examine the strategic deployment of capital and asset allocation into real estate markets for the year ahead. The participants will offer their views from different points on the compass as they comment on the current capital and credit market environment; what they foresee in 2013 and beyond; what risks vs. opportunities are emerging at this time; in what portions of the Canadian real estate market and in what form would they would favour deploying capital; and where will the real estate asset class fit relative to all other investment opportunities for the year ahead. What will be the impact of Basel III and OFSI’s push for greater diversification having on the commercial lending activities of major institutional lenders?As capital searches for yield in a low interest rate environment, will real estate continue to be strongly attractive or is interest in this asset class beginning to soften? Is fixed income becoming a favoured alternative? How strong is the appeal in owning commercial real estate debt? How much impact is there likely about the Canadian housing market on credit environments in general?

Moderators:
Lucas Atkins, Managing Director & Head of Real Estate, Raymond James Ltd.
Ugo Bizzarri, Founding Managing Director, Portfolio Manager & Investments, Timbercreek Asset Management

Panel:
Paul Chin, Vice President, Real Estate Lending, Loan Syndications and Capital Markets, Otéra Capital
Bill Jandrisits, President & CEO, MCAN Mortgage Corporation
Andrew Phillips, Managing Director, Team Head, Real Estate Group, TD Securities
Moray Tawse, Vice President, Investments, First National Financial LP


10:30 a.m.
MORNING REFRESHMENTS

10:50 AM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT A1, A2, OR A3)
SESSION A1:
TIER ONE LENDERS’ ROUNDTABLE: THE MARKET FOR MEDIUM AND LARGER LOANS AND MAJOR CENTRES

A cross-section of major lenders will provide an update on the underwriting practices and deployment of debt capital in the Canadian market. In 2013, will sufficient capital be available all year? Will this include alternative sources such as mortgage bonds and CMBS? The session will open with a brief overview of a national annual survey of the Canadian commercial mortgage market activity. Discussion will then focus on the following questions among others:

  • Who will be the major providers of debt in Canada and what will they be looking for? Can we expect any new entrants into Canada?
  • How will the strategies of banks, insurance companies, pension funds and other institutions vary from those of private sources of debt capital?
  • How are lenders evaluating a deal in today’s market? How is risk being priced now? What is happening with loan spreads, amortization periods, loan to value ratios, and recourse financing?
  • With coupons now at 3.5 – 4% and historical mortgage coupons averaging 7.75%, how are lenders stressing the re-finance scenario?
  • What property classes are lenders avoiding, reducing exposure to, or increasing pricing for
  • What impact are low coupons having on each type of lender?
  • How do the respective macro investment programs at each different institution impact their ability to compete in various terms and pricing at the commercial mortgage level? With what alternatives do mortgage programs compete internally for funding?

Moderator:
Mark Achtemichuk
, Vice President & Managing Director, Mortgage Valuation, CMLS Financial Ltd.

Panel:
David Dulberg, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets Real Estate Group
Phil Gillin, Senior Managing Director & Head, Canadian Property Investments, Sun Life Financial
Andrew Huntley, Senior Vice President, Mortgage Investments, AIMCo

Michael Rupar, Director, Commercial Lending, ING DIRECT

Jeremy Wedgbury, Managing Director, Commercial Mortgages, First National Financial LP


SESSION A2:
HOW ARE CAPITAL MARKETS EVALUATING REAL ESTATE AT THIS TIME? HAVE THEIR EXPECTATIONS CHANGED? IS THERE GREATER RISK OR OPPORTUNITY?

A new record in Canada was set in 2012 with respect to the dollar value of REITs and securitized real estate. The result has been four consecutive years of double digit total returns. Are the fundamentals and the overall case for investing in publicly listed real estate still strong this year? In light of the challenges faced by other asset classes, is real estate outperforming most vehicles offering investors steady and favourable yields? This session will examine these and other questions in-depth including:

  • What major priorities do portfolio managers and analysts use to evaluate public real estate companies, e.g. balance sheet strength, liquidity, distribution coverage?
  • Why are we likely to see many more REIT IPOs in Canada over the next year?
  • How frequently are public companies likely to come to the market in 2013 with new offerings?
  • How do investors deal with the confusing market metrics associated with real estate assets? Is IFRS making valuation easier or harder?
  • Why do some REITs perform better than others? What measures dictate good performance?
  • How much aversion to risk do investors have at this time?
  • While the flight of capital towards quality assets continues as in the past, how far outside of these parameters are investors prepared to move?
  • How much of a disconnect is there between the investment parameters and cap rates?

Moderator:
Allan Kimberley
, Vice Chairman & Managing Director, Investment Banking, CIBC World Markets Inc.

Panel:
Justin Canivet, Head, Business Development, Diversified Industries, TSX Inc.

Anish Chopra, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Management Inc.
Tom Dicker, Portfolio Manager, Dynamic Funds
Michael Smith, Managing Director, Real Estate Equity Research, Macquarie Securities Group


SESSION A3:
THE CFO PERSPECTIVE: HOW REITs & PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS ARE BEING CREATIVE IN THEIR LEVELS OF DEBT & MANAGING THE BALANCE SHEET

This panel will look at the trends and issues related to raising debt, credit and capital from the perspectives of REITs and private equity funds. How are they managing their balance sheets in this very competitive environment?

  • Is it still as easy to access the capital that you require in today’s market as it was a year ago? If not, then what have been the most significant changes?
  • How much debt are you carrying, when does it roll over, and how will you likely refinance?
  • What are the most key sources of capital that you are tapping?
  • Who has the lowest cost of capital now?
  • What are the borrowers’ perspectives on secured and unsecured debt?
  • Do you have any challenges with how underwriting is being done in today’s market and how lenders are trying to transfer risk? Do you sense that these are transitional measures or more structural?
  • What about new acquisitions and development? How are they being financed?
  • What is the right capital structure and appropriate level of debt for a Canadian REIT or private equity fund?
  • Are leverage parameters being changed under IFRS?

Moderator:
Randy Buckley
, Vice President & Director, Murray & Company Limited

Panel: 
Mario Barrafato, Senior Vice President & CFO, Dundee Real Estate Investment Trust
Rags Davloor, Executive Vice President & CFO, RioCan REIT
Anna Kennedy, Partner & CFO, KingSett Capital
Peter Sweeney, Vice President & CFO, Allied Properties REIT


11:50 AM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT B1, B2, OR B3)
SESSION B1:
THE SHIFT FROM FOCUSING ON RETURN TO LIMITING RISK CONTINUES: HOW ARE GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS RESPONDING TO THESE CONCERNS?

Managing risk in today’s market: how much of a change has there been in investor philosophy? How are investors playing the global markets now? How much volatility are they able to accept? While the flight of capital towards quality assets continues as in the past, how far outside of these parameters are investors and lenders prepared to move? To what extent are investors focusing on specific cities rather than broader markets? What other significant trends in the North American property market do you need to be aware of? How significantly is core overpriced? Is now the right time to move up the risk curve? Where is the best place to be if global economy moves into recession? What is the outlook for debt, equity and capital markets for 2013?

Moderator:
Stephen Sender
, Managing Director, Industry Head – Real Estate, Global Investment Banking, Scotiabank

Panel:
George Ahl, Principal, M3 Capital Partners
Peter Cuthbert, Senior Vice President / Partner, Fiera Properties Limited
Michael McLaughlin, U.S. Country Head and President, Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.
Jim Ward, Senior Vice President, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Canadian Branch


SESSION B2:
MEETING THE DEMAND FOR $20 MILLION LOANS AND FINANCING TIER TWO ASSETS

A significant part of the Canadian commercial mortgage market consists of properties that have financing needs in the range of $20 million or less. In most instances, they represent B or C class buildings or smaller developments in larger urban centres while in others they can be found in mid-market outside the major cities. This session will examine these market situations in greater detail and how the capital and debt needs for these types of assets are being addressed. Among the questions that will be examined:

  • Who is lending at these levels, at what rates, with kind of underwriting criteria, and to whom?
  • How is risk being priced for these smaller sized loans? What is happening with loan spreads, amortization periods, loan to value ratios, and recourse?
  • Will properties in geographic areas outside of metropolitan centres be a tougher sell in 2013 or are their needs being met?
  • What is the market for B and C class properties that could be out of favour with major lenders?
  • Is there any interest in underperforming assets?

Moderator:
Richard Brownscombe
, President & CEO, Montrose Corporation Ltd.

Panel:
Blake Cassidy, Managing Partner, Romspen Investment Corporation
Thom Henderson, Director of Commercial Mortgages, Community Trust
Tom Reece, Vice President, Lending, Regional Manager, Ontario, CareVest Capital Inc.
Alan Winer, President, Harbour Mortgage Corporation


SESSION B3:
VALUATION IN TODAY’S MARKET: DOES PRICING NOW ALWAYS EQUAL VALUE?

While acknowledging that market fundamentals have rarely been better, how significant is the imbalance between supply and demand? Is there simply too much cheap capital looking for a home in real estate? If so, is market pricing actually outstripping market value? To what extent are properties now priced beyond perfection? What asset classes and geographic markets (both home and abroad) are fully priced, and where is there still room for growth? Do you have a different perspective on value if you are a pension fund, a life company or a REIT? How does that compare with a capital markets perspective? Portfolio premiums – fact or fiction? If that is a fact, then how much of a premium is appropriate? Where will values likely be by the end of 2013? How about in the following year?

Moderator:
Colin Johnston
, President, Research, Valuation & Advisory, Altus Group

Panel:
Alex Avery, Executive Director, Institutional Equity Research, CIBC World Markets Inc.
Simon Fairchild, Managing Director, IPD North America
Lisa Lafave, Senior Portfolio Manager, Real Estate, Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan
Blair McCreadie, Head, Canadian Real Estate, Standard Life Investments (Real Estate) Inc.


12:50 AM
NETWORKING LUNCHEON
LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS
AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS

2:00 PM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (SELECT C1, C2 or C3)
SESSION C1:
FINANCING CONDOMINIUM CONSTRUCTION & DEVELOPMENT IN TODAY’S MARKET: JUST HOW DIFFICULT IS IT?

One of the ongoing debates at this time is whether sales and prices in the Greater Toronto housing market have peaked and we are now heading for a minor or major correction in property values. The media has increasingly focused on this topic that even dominates water cooler conversations. Have condominium developers overextended themselves with too many projects – many of which also feature apartments that are so small that their future desirability could be in some doubt? Have investors who played a significant role in heating up these markets stopped buying? Are lenders now approaching high levels of caution and risk assessment as they respond to the concerns of OSFI, the Minister of Finance and the BOC by significantly reducing the construction lending activities? This session will try to offer some insights on these and other related questions to clarify what may lie ahead for the financing of condominium projects for 2013 and beyond.
What are lenders’ pre-sale and covenant requirements and where will they be heading in the next twelve months? How are lenders and investors pricing risk for this type of financing? What underwriting practices are they using to evaluate potential projects? What are the challenges in financing mixed-use developments that include a residential component vs. single asset buildings?

Moderator:
Dan Marinovic
, Vice President, Finance, First Gulf Corporation

Panel:
George Carras
, President, RealNet Canada Inc.

Robert Gill, Vice President, Real Estate Division, CIBC
Kevin Murphy, Vice President, Home Builder Finance, RBC Royal Bank of Canada
Stelio Zupancich, Vice President, Real Estate, TD Commercial Banking


SESSION C2:
ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF CAPITAL: HOW ARE MORTGAGE FUNDS AND PRIVATE EQUITY MEETING THE NEEDS OF INVESTORS AND BORROWERS?

Given the massive inflow of billions of dollars looking for opportunities to access the yield and cash flow produced by property assets, commercial mortgages and real estate funds have become hot and extremely popular products for institutional and retail investors. As a result, large pools of funds have been raised by private sources to provide a range of loans. Mezzanine financing, private mortgages and other secondary sources of capital are playing an important role in today’s real estate market. This session will examine the trends, availability, and cost of this type of credit and capital.

Who is filling the strategic gap for investors seeking exposure to real estate? What is the range of options? What are their exit strategies? What is the strongest market for these types of alternative products? How can you differentiate one fund from another? What are the underlying strategies that the sources of capital are using with respect to risk/reward/return for the deployment of these funds? What will be their priorities for 2013 by product type and market across the country? How have fund managers accessed the capital markets to participate in their activities?

Moderator:
Michael Lovett
, Managing Partner, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation

Panel:
Chris Brossard, Chief Executive Officer, CMLS Financial
Scott Coates, Managing Director, Mortgage Investments, KingSett Capital
Andrew Jones, Managing Director, Debt Investments/Financing, Timbercreek Asset Management Ltd.
Sandy Poklar, COO & Managing Director, Capital Markets & Strategic Developments, Firm Capital Corp.


SESSION C3:
HOW DO YOU GROW YOUR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO IN THIS MARKET? THE PERSPECTIVES OF REITS, PENSION FUNDS AND PRIVATE EQUITY

MARKHAM WELLNESS DISTRICT

An insightful discussion about investment activity in today’s very competitive market environment.

The past year saw another record amount of transactions as many organizations’ acquisition war chests continue to overflow with cash combined with a strong search for yield by investors leaving the bond market. The panel will address a range of questions including: What will likely be the major challenges in order to buy or sell assets in this market? What are the differences between the issues faced by a REIT vs. a pension funds vs. a private equity fund vs. a foreign investor in selling or acquiring properties at this time? What information do you need in order to try to do a deal in this market? Where do you project that cap rates will be by the end of 2013 relative to today’s prices? Is the market currently priced to perfection? Who do you anticipate will be the likely sellers?

Which product types will be most favoured by you? Which markets will be “top of mind”, and why? How much of an impact are the geoeconomic trends having on your ability to do a deal?

Moderator:
Peter Senst, 
Executive Vice President & Director, CBRE Limited

Panel:
Gordon Driedger
, Executive Vice President, Central Canada, First Capital Realty Inc.
Scott Hayes, President & CEO, Dundee Industrial REIT
Eric Plesman, Senior Vice President, Investments, Oxford Properties Group Inc.
Sharm Powell, Director, Real Estate, Canada, CPP Investment Board

For a copy of the presentation from this session, please email Krista Reardon.


3:00 PM
CLOSING ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION: THE LAST WORD ON CAPITAL MARKETS, LIQUIDITY, VALUES, AND DEAL FLOW IN 2013

A discussion with a diversified group of senior real estate executives, investment managers, and equity market analysts on their perspective for Canadian real estate fundamentals, trends, opportunities, and strategies for 2013. How will the Canadian market perform in face of U.S., European and other geo-economic conditions? What could be the key challenges facing real estate executives over the next twelve months? What are their expectations of the capital and credit markets supporting the growth of real estate portfolios and entities? Is there likely to be any change in liquidity? What impact will this have on cap rates and real estate values? What are you seeing in capital, financial and real estate markets outside of Canada, especially in the U.S. and Europe? How much deal flow can be expected in the Canadian market in 2013? Are assets now priced beyond perfection in Canada? Have we reached the point where investing outside of the country is far more attractive than staying at home? Do you anticipate sufficient buying opportunities for your organization or will you pursue some development activity to generate more growth? What will be the appetite of retail and institutional investors to have greater real estate exposure in their portfolios?

Moderators: 
Lucas Atkins, Managing Director & Head of Real Estate, Raymond James Ltd.
Ugo Bizzarri, Founding Managing Director, Portfolio Manager & Investments, Timbercreek Asset Management Ltd.

Panel: 
David Arthur, Managing Partner, North America Real Estate Investments, Brookfield Property Group
Ken Avalos, Vice President, REITAnalyst, Raymond James Ltd.
Michael Cooper, Managing Partner, Dundee Realty Asset Management
Sonny Kalsi, Founder and Partner, GreenOak Real Estate
Dennis Mitchell, Executive Vice President & CIO, Sentry Investments


4:00 PM
NETWORKING RECEPTION