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Oil prices are at a six year low and the resource sector is sagging. Is the West still best? Will the lower Canadian dollar breathe new life into Canadian manufacturing? Will U.S. economic growth bolster the Canadian economy in 2015? This presentation will examine the economic outlook for Canada and the U.S., including GDP and employment growth; interest, currency and inflation rates; energy and commodity prices over the rest of the year, and the implications for household and government balance sheets.Warren Jestin, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Scotiabank
After a year of political scandals, terror and intrigue, how is our world changing? How will Canadians respond to these new economic and geopolitical realities? The horses are nearing the post for the next federal race. Who are Canadians likely to bet on? Can the Harper government regain its footing? Can Trudeau’s Liberals run the distance? One of Canada’s foremost pundits on political and social trends will discuss the current state of affairs in Canada and around the world.Allan Gregg, Leading Political & Social Affairs Columnist and Media Personality
The volatility in world oil markets and the Canadian dollar have been front page news over the past few months but Canadian commercial real estate has remained steady. Is the lower Canadian dollar a blessing or a curse for property owners? Will warehouse and manufacturing space attract more interest? Will global investors be drawn to Canada? Where are Canadian developers focusing their efforts now? This presentation will examine the various factors behind strategic decisions in the Canadian commercial real estate marketplace at this time.Paul Morassutti, Executive Vice President & Executive Managing Director, Valuation & Advisory Services, CBRE Limited
A wide ranging panel discussion will examine the strategic deployment of capital and asset allocation for the year ahead. The participants will offer their views from different points on the compass as they comment on the current capital and credit market environment; what they foresee in 2015 and beyond; what risks vs. opportunities are emerging at this time; how much relative interest will they have in the real estate market and in what form would they would favour deploying capital; and where will the real estate asset class fit relative to all other investment strategies and opportunities for the year ahead. Where will capital move if the low interest rate environment begins to end? Is fixed income becoming a favoured alternative yet? How much impact is there likely to be about the Canadian housing market on credit environments in general?Moderator:
Don Clow, President & CEO, Crombie REIT
Ashi Mathur, Managing Director & Group Head, Real Estate Canada, Investment & Corporate Banking, BMO Capital MarketsPanel:
Hugh Macdonnell, Managing Director, Clarion Partners
Ashi Mathur, Managing Director & Group Head, Real Estate Canada, Investment & Corporate Banking, BMO Capital Markets
Jerome Silvey, Executive Vice President & CFO, Starwood Capital Group
Moray Tawse, Executive Vice President, Mortgage Investments & Co-Founder, First National Financial LP
George Young, Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Gluskin Sheff + Associates
A cross-section of major Canadian commercial lenders will provide an update on the underwriting practices and deployment of debt capital in 2015. While there appears to be more than sufficient capital available, what issues do major lenders have at this time in deploying their capital? The session will open with a brief overview of a national annual survey of the Canadian commercial mortgage market activity. Discussion will then focus on the following questions among others:
Mario Barrafato, Senior Vice President & CFO, Dream Office REIT
Mark Achtemichuk, Vice President & Managing Director, CMLS Financial Ltd.
Michael Andrews, National Managing Director, Commercial Mortgages, Sun Life Financial
Andrew Huntley, Senior Vice President, Mortgage Investments, AIMCo
Mark Stoneburgh, Director, Corporate Credit Real Estate, TD Securities
Jeremy Wedgbury, Managing Director, Commercial Mortgages, First National Financial LP
The last twelve months have seen the beginning of some major swings in global capital flows. On the one hand, there has been the economic condition of Europe and the signs of some weakening in major growing and emerging markets. However, the U.S. economic strengthening has attracted the attention of a increasing flow of capital. How do you manage risk in today’s global market under these ircumstances? How much of a change has there been in investor philosophy? How are the various investors playing the international property markets now, e.g. core vs. value add vs. opportunistic? How much volatility are they able to accept? While the flight of capital towards quality assets continues, how far outside of these parameters are investors prepared to move? To what extent are investors focusing on specific cities rather than broader markets? What other significant trends in the global property market do you need to be aware of? What is the outlook for debt, equity and capital markets for 2015 from the perspective of global players?
Bill Jandrisits, President & CEO, MCAN Mortgage Corporation
George Ahl, Managing Director, Forum Partners
Arne Arnesen, Senior Managing Director, Rockwood Capital
Pierre Bergevin, Managing Partner, Brookfield Financial
Sylvain Fortier, Executive Vice President, Residential, Hotels and Real Estate Investment Funds, Ivanhoé Cambridge
When liquidity and the credit markets stalled in 2009, one of the most significant casualties for the commercial and investment real estate market was the evaporation of CMBS and conduit lenders. But five years later, they are back. This session will examine the current market developments and compare them to the previous cycle. The questions to be addressed will include: who are the players now; anything different this time; do we now have a version 2.0 or a continuation of version 1.0; and how did the $24 billion of conduit generated mortgages perform over the past fifteen years. What is the significance of the conduit lenders and CMBS product in Canada at this time? Five deals have been done since RealCapital 2014 totaling $1.7 billion. What is in store for 2015 and beyond?
Randy Buckley, Vice President, Broker, Murray & Company Limited
Norm Camiré, Head – Canadian CMBS, Royal Bank of Canada
Glen Malcolm, Senior Vice President, CMLS Financial Ltd.
David Morrison, Director, Credit Adjudication, Commercial Mortgages, First National Financial LP
Darren Schmidt, Managing Director – Origination, IM Capital
This panel will look at the trends and issues related to raising debt, credit and capital from the perspectives of REITs and private equity funds. How are they managing their balance sheets in this very competitive environment? Among the questions that will be addressed:
Stephen Sender, Managing Director, Industry Head – Real Estate Global Investment Banking, Scotiabank
Kay Brekken, Executive Vice President & CFO, First Capital Realty
Glenn Hynes, Executive Vice President, CFO & Secretary, Crombie REIT
Cathal O’Connor, Executive Vice President & CFO, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited
Peter Sweeney, Chief Financial Officer, Calloway REIT
Over and above the major financial institutions, large pension funds and lifecos, additional players in the Canadian lending environment now include foreign banks, private equity funds, smaller banks and other non-bank lenders. This session will examine their interests and focus in the Canadian commercial mortgage market. Are they in search of large transactions or is their focus more on properties that have financing needs in the range of $20 million or less? Why is the Canadian commercial lending market gaining interest from U.S. banks again? What are the loan origination and underwriting strategies of these alternative players? What is the type and range of loans that you are offering, to whom, in which markets and for what property classes; how is risk being priced for smaller sized loans or mezzanine financing; what are your spreads, amortization periods, LTV ratios, and recourse; will properties in geo, graphic areas outside of metropolitan centres be a tougher sell in 2015; what is the market for B and C class properties that could be out of favour with major lenders; and is there any interest in underperforming assets.
Jeff Cox, Vice President, Murray & Company Limited
Vince Faustini, Senior Director, Equitable Bank
Andrew Jones, Managing Director, Debt Investments, Timbercreek Asset Management
Ernesto Licursi, Executive Director, Mortgage Investments, KingSett Capital
Jim Ward, Senior Vice President, Wells Fargo Bank N.A. – Canada
Borrowers, lenders, regulators, insurers, analysts, and investors are increasingly focused on risk in a potentially declining return environment. This risk could include covenant risk, repayment risk, political risk, regulatory risk, environmental risk, or development risk. This session will look at risk through the eyes of four diverse stakeholders including a lender, an equity analyst, a rating agency, and an investor. How is risk converted into value? Into loan underwriting terms? Into recourse? Into cost? Into price? Into liquidity? Into the investment decision? Are borrowers aware of their risk profile? How can borrowers better identify, manage and mitigate risk? What do best in class borrowers do to reduce risk, and improve their finance ability and (risk adjusted) returns?
Chris Huband, Partner, Toronto Office, Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP
Wissam Francis, Executive Vice President, Corporate Finance, Tricon Capital Group Inc.
Karen Gu, Senior Vice President, CMBS, DBRS
Daniel Simunac, Managing Director & Principal Officer, Raymond James Bank, Canada
Michael Smith, Managing Director, Global Research, RBC Capital Markets
One of the ongoing debates for the past five years is the extent to which the sales and prices in the Greater Toronto housing market have peaked and how much of a correction in property values can we expect. The media has increasingly focused on this topic that even dominates water cooler conversations. To what degree have condominium developers overextended themselves with too many projects? Are fewer investors buying? Are lenders at high levels of caution and risk assessment as they respond to the concerns of the federal government by significantly reducing construction lending activities? This session will try to offer some insights on these and other questions to clarify what may lie ahead for the financing of condominium and mixed-use developments for 2015 and beyond. What are lenders’ pre-sale and covenant requirements and where will they be heading in the next twelve months? How are lenders and investors pricing risk for this type of financing? What underwriting practices are they using to evaluate potential projects? What are the challenges in financing mixed-use developments that include a residential component vs. single asset buildings?
Tzen-Yi Goh, Partner, McCarthy Tétrault LLP
Steve Camp, Senior Vice President, Cameron Stephens Mortgage Capital Ltd.
Paul Chin, Vice President, Ontario & Western Canada Real Estate Lending, Loan Syndications and Capital Markets, Otéra Capital
Bruno Iacovetta, Managing Director, MCAP Financial Corporation
Frank Margani, Executive Vice President, Strategy & Development, Fortress Real Developments
Chris Milne, Vice President, Real Estate Banking, Scotiabank
Given the inflow of billions of dollars looking for opportunities to access the yield and cash flow produced by property assets, commercial mortgages and real estate funds have been very popular products for institutional and retail investors. As a result, large pools of funds have been raised by private sources to provide a range of loans. Mezzanine financing, private mortgages and other secondary sources of capital are playing an important role in today’s real estate market. This session will examine the trends, availability, and cost of this type of credit and capital. Who is filling the strategic gap for investors seeking exposure to real estate? What is the range of options? What are their exit strategies? What is the strongest market for these types of alternative products? How can you differentiate one fund from another? What are the underlying strategies that the sources of capital are using with respect to risk/reward/return for the deployment of these funds? What will be their priorities for 2015 by product type and market across the country? How have fund managers accessed the capital markets to participate in their activities?
Onorio Lucchese, Managing Director, Investment & Corporate Banking, BMO Capital Markets
Michael Carragher, Vice President, Mortgage Investments, Firm Capital Corporation
Pierre Leonard, Managing Partner, Romspen Investment Corporation
Noah Mintz, Vice President, Lending, Trez Capital
Bram Rothman, Managing Director, Atrium MIC
An insightful discussion about investment activity in today’s very competitive market environment that is on the cusp of rising interest rates. The panel will address a range of questions including: What will likely be the major challenges in order to buy or sell assets in the Canadian market during 2015? What are the differences between the issues faced by a REIT vs. a pension fund vs. a private equity fund in selling or acquiring properties at this time? Are the REITs back now in the capital and therefore investment markets? How are you financing your development and investment programs going forward? Where will cap rates be by the end of 2015 relative to today’s prices? Who do you anticipate will be the likely sellers? Which property classes will be most favoured? Will rising interest rates affect your strategies and, if so, in what way?
Peter Senst, President, Canadian Capital Markets, CBRE Limited
An insightful discussion with a diversified group of senior real estate executives and investment managers on their perspective for Canadian real estate fundamentals, trends, opportunities, and strategies for 2015. How will Canada perform relative to the U.S., European and other global markets? What will likely be the key challenges facing real estate executives over the next twelve months looking for sources of well-priced capital? What are their expectations of the capital and credit markets in supporting the growth of their portfolios? What trend do they expect for the cost of debt capital? What impact will this have on cap rates and real estate values? What are you seeing in capital, financial and real estate markets outside of Canada, especially in the U.S. and Europe? How much deal flow can be expected in the Canadian market in 2015? Are assets now priced beyond perfection in Canada? Have we reached the point where investing outside of the country is far more attractive than staying at home? Do you anticipate sufficient buying opportunities for your organization or will you pursue some development activity to generate more growth? What will be the appetite of retail and institutional investors to have greater real estate exposure in their portfolios?
Don Clow, President & CEO, Crombie REIT
Ashi Mathur, Managing Director & Group Head, Real Estate Canada, Investment & Corporate Banking, BMO Capital Markets
Michael Emory, President & CEO, Allied Properties REIT
Jane Gavan, President, Asset Management, Dream Unlimited Corp., Chief Executive Officer, Dream Global REIT; Chief Executive Officer, Dream Office REIT
Sonny Kalsi, Founder & Partner, GreenOak Real Estate
Michael Missaghie, Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Blair Welch, Partner & Co-Founder, Slate Asset Management LP; CEO, Slate Retail REIT