2020 Forum Program

Chair’s Reception

Platinum


Wednesday, October 28

5:30PM – 7:00PM
THE CHAIR'S RECEPTION: THE HARGRAVE ST. MARKET

Thursday, October 29

7:15 AM
REGISTRATION & LIGHT BREAKFAST

8:00 AM
OPENING COMMENTS
 

Forum Chair:
Jim Ludlow
, President, True North Real Estate Development


8:10 AM
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINNIPEG MARKET

Within the Canadian context, Winnipeg has had one of the best economic performances of any large city (population over 500,000) in Canada since the global downturn in 2009. It has maintained a generally stable economy. This presentation will examine the outlook of this unique market and why Winnipeg’s unemployment rate has decreased to 4.9% (Dec. 19). The city’s GDP has performed above the national average over the past ten years as manufacturing has shown signs of additional strength in this market. What are Winnipeg’s other major economic drivers? How do the prospects compare with the outlook for other large Canadian cities?

Speaker:
Andrew Grantham
, Senior Economist, CIBC World Markets


8:40 AM
HOW ARE WINNIPEG LEASING AND INVESTMENT MARKETS PERFORMING? 

An overview of leasing and investment activity in Winnipeg over 2019 and the first Quarter of 2020. What were the benchmark leasing and investment deals during the past twelve months? What is the outlook for the remainder of 2020 and beyond in the office, retail, industrial and multi-unit residential sectors in terms of absorption rates, cap rates and leasing and investment activity? How do the prospective trends for Winnipeg compare with other major Canadian markets?

Speaker:
Trevor Clay
, Principal, Capital Commercial Real Estate Services Inc.


9:05 AM
WINNIPEG’S COMPETITIVE EDGE

Two essential elements found in many successful cities are a diversified range of strong economic drivers coupled with a vibrant population and culture that inspires and attracts an intellectual market of residents. How does Winnipeg fare in this regard? What competitive advantage does it offer? The city has a highly educated and productive workforce, low cost energy, a central location with
excellent multi-model transportation system for distribution of goods to market, and a diversified manufacturing base that includes agri-business, financial services, aerospace and other industries. Winnipeg offers one of the lowest overall business costs of any major Canadian centre. What are some of the major drivers responsible for this market’s relatively stable economy? 

 

GROWING MANITOBA’S ECONOMY: THE KEY FINDINGS

Speaker:
Dave Angus
, President, Johnston Group 

 

WHAT WINNIPEG IS DOING TO FACILITATE GROWTH: A FIRESIDE CHAT WITH THE MAYOR

Brian Bowman

Dan Chubey

Brian Bowman, Mayor, City of Winnipeg

In conversation with:
Dan Chubey
, Managing Director, Winnipeg, Colliers International


10:15 AM
MORNING REFRESHMENTS

10:45 AM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select A1, A2 or A3)
SESSION A1:
THE WINNIPEG OFFICE MARKET HAS NEW DISTRICTS AND SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT: WHAT STRATEGIES WILL PROVE EFFECTIVE IN THIS NEXT GENERATIONAL CHANGE?  

This session will examine what the future holds for the Winnipeg office market. Where are vacancy rates, cap rates and other underlying leasing and investment fundamentals heading at this time? Office space NERs tend to range widely but remain among the lowest in Canadian cities. What will it take to increase these rates? With hundreds of millions invested throughout the Sports Hospitality & Entertainment District, what impact is this having on the downtown market? Can True North Square and Portage and Main not only co-exist but thrive? What impact will this have on the higher end of the market? How are Class B and C properties performing compared to Class A space? How can aging assets being strategically repositioned? How are changing tenant workplace environments impacting the market? How are entrepreneurs responding to these evolving trends?

Moderator:
Ryan Behie
, Vice President & Managing Director, CBRE Limited

Panel:
Evan Johnston
, SVP and Chief Legal Officer, Wawanesa Insurance
Aaron McDougall, Vice President, Leasing, Harvard Developments Inc.
Fabricio Mendes, Vice President, Acquisitions & Dispositions, Artis REIT
Jamie Petch, Senior Vice President, Office, KingSett Capital

SESSION A2:
IS THE INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET ON FIRE?

With over 80 million square feet of industrial space, Winnipeg is the largest distribution centre between Vancouver and Toronto. The city is at the core of both of Canada’s national intermodal rail systems with direct connections to the United States via Burlington Northern. Winnipeg is also the headquarters for many of the top inter-provincial general freight carriers in Canada and offers access to ocean ports through Churchill and Thunder Bay. How is the industrial real estate market performing? As growth and development continues in many areas including the CentrePort Canada area, overall vacancy rates remain 3%. What portion of is spec development? Is there a flight to quality among some tenants? What are the major factors responsible for the increased demand? How are the City’s policies affecting the availability and cost of developable industrial land? How are the design and requirements of industrial space changing?

Moderator:
Aaron DeGroot
, President, Cushman & Wakefield Winnipeg

Panel:
Diane Gray
, President & CEO, CentrePort Canada
Calvin Polet, President, Neptune Properties
Marissa Poseluzney, Vice President, Leasing, QuadReal Property Group
Chris Vodrey, Director, Leasing, Morguard

SESSION A3:
CONSTRUCTION & DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY ACROSS WINNIPEG: WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THESE PROJECTS?  WHAT ARE SOME MAJOR TRENDS?

Across Canada, there is an unprecedented amount of urban revitalization and development on a scale that has not been seen for decades. Aside from residential and commercial projects, major public sector and infrastructure projects have also been at the forefront of construction activity. This has been the case in Winnipeg as well. The city has witnessed the transformation of the downtown core, the exchange district and other areas. Numerous iconic projects are playing a significant role. This session will examine some examples of major renewal activity, and how it is impacting the vitality of Winnipeg. Some commentary will also focus on construction costs and what impact they are having on development.

Moderator:
Sean Barnes, ‎Vice President, Special Projects, PCL Constructors Inc.

Panel:
Chase Allen
, Managing Director, Winnipeg, Canada ICI
Wendy Janzen, Vice President, Manitoba, Colliers Project Leaders
Loretta Martin, Director of Development, CentreVenture Development Corporation
Greg Rogers, Chief Executive Officer, UM Properties LP


11:50 AM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select B1, B2 or B3)
SESSION B1:
THE RETAIL MARKET IN WINNIPEG: ON FIRE OR A SLOW BURN? 

Can the Winnipeg retail market continue to experience strength in leasing and growth? With some national retailers in receivership or closing stores, how does this impact a smaller market like Winnipeg? Many landlords have succeeded in increasing rents on renewals as well as the NERs of their centres. How does supply and demand balance with respect to the types of retail formats offered, tenant interest in this market, and levels of consumer spending? What new developments are responding to this market? Is differentiation a key ingredient between existing centres and new projects? Who are new retailers in this market? What is the impact of: grocery chain stores battling it out in this small market; the new Outlet Collection of Winnipeg; rising labour costs; and online shopping and omnichannel strategies? What does the future hold? 

Moderator:
Rennie Zegalski
, Principal, Capital Commercial Real Estate Services Inc.

Panel:
Chris Chan
, Senior Vice President, Retail, JLL 
Peter Havens
, General Manager, CF Polo Park, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited
Angela Mathieson, Chief Executive Officer, CentreVenture Development Corporation
Mauro Padula, Vice President, Leasing, Western Region, SmartCentres REIT

SESSION B2:
WHAT ARE ENTREPRENEURS DOING IN TODAY’S MARKET TO SUCCEED?

Given the strong investor sentiment in the Canadian market, major opportunities have emerged for entrepreneurialism in the real estate industry. In the Winnipeg market, who are some of them and what are they doing? They are experienced at looking for innovation and accessing lower priced capital. They are often privately-owned firms. While they do not dismiss risk, they often have the ability to see value and reward where many others do not. What have been the most significant challenges that they have had to endure? How do they see opportunities unfolding in the future with aging inventory of existing buildings and the potential to repurpose assets from one use to another, e.g. transforming aged inventory into new buildings, repurposing B class industrial into retail? 

Moderator:
Martin McGarry
, President, MMI

Panel:
Bryce Alston
, Director, Alston Properties
Karl Loepp, Chief Operating Officer, Private Pension Partners
Sam Sidhu, President, Whiteland
John Stroich, President & Managing Director, LS Properties and Green Valley Management

SESSION B3:
INVESTOR INTEREST IN WINNIPEG: WHO WANTS TO INCREASE THEIR PRESENCE IN THIS MARKET? IS IT ATTRACTING MIGRATORY CAPITAL?

An insightful discussion about investment activity in the Winnipeg market. The session will open with a brief overview of some of the bellwether transactions over the past twelve months. The panel will address a range of questions including: What have been the major challenges facing investors trying to buy assets in Winnipeg? Is migratory capital making its way into this market from Alberta, Saskatchewan or other areas? With the continued access to low priced capital and a strong number of potential buyers, how much of a disconnect is there between supply and demand of product? Where will cap rates be by the end of 2020 relative to today’s prices? Which property classes and what quality of assets are most strongly favoured by investors? How does the investment market in Winnipeg compare with other Canadian cities?

Moderator:
Bryn Oliver
, Principal, Capital Commercial Real Estate Services

Panel:
Brian Bastable
, Managing Director, Slate Asset Management LP
Phil Brown, Vice President, Acquisitions & Leasing, Industrial, Hopewell Development LP
David Hanick, Chief Legal Officer, Starlight Investments 
Gord Wiebe
, CEO & Principal, Corpfin Capital


12:45 PM
NETWORKING LUNCHEON
LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS

1:45 PM
KEYNOTE INTERVIEW

INTRODUCTION:
Tom Thiessen
, Executive Director, BOMA Manitoba

ONE ON ONE WITH A CANADIAN REAL ESTATE THOUGHT LEADER

Jon Love, Founder and CEO, KingSett Capital

IN CONVERSATION WITH:

Jim Ludlow, President, True North Real Estate Development


2:35 PM
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select C1, C2 or C3)
SESSION C1:
GROWING INTEREST IN BRANDON, PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE AND STEINBACH: WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS ABOUT THESE SECONDARY MARKETS? 

While 60% of the province’s population is concentrated in the capital city, communities such as Brandon, Portage la Prairie and Steinbach are hitting above their weight when it comes to growth and new development. Some may call them “sleeper” communities, but they have awakened the interest of big players. In Portage la Prairie, the city of 13,300 has locked down $1.2 billion worth of new investment. Downtown Brandon has a number of projects that are breathing new life into formerly abandoned buildings. The first phase of Steinbach North Business Park with commercial, office, retail and services on nearly 80 acres of land opened last summer. This session will examine the investor trends and attraction to these secondary markets.

Moderator:
Todd Labelle
, Senior Associate, Investment, Land, Retail, Avison Young

Panel:
Steve McMillan, Vice President, Planning Services, VBJ Developments (invited)
Eve O'Leary, Executive Director, Portage Regional Economic Development, Portage la Prairie
Bob Schinkel, Owner & CEO, Schinkel Properties

SESSION C2:
IS THE STABLE APARTMENT MARKET EXPERIENCING SOME CHALLENGES? WHY DOES IT CONTINUE TO ATTRACT INVESTOR INTEREST? 

This session will examine the principal trends in demand, supply and investment activity in the Winnipeg apartment market. What is the short and medium term outlook for the performance of the multi-unit residential sector? How diversified is this market? What caused the vacancy rate to jump modestly? Where are rent levels heading over the next twelve months? What impact are Airbnb and the condominium market having on the apartment market? Is there a possibility that the market is heading for oversupply with too much construction of new buildings? How are older buildings remaining competitive? Where are cap rates heading as investors continue to have interest in this property class? How have provincial regulations affected the rental market?

Moderator:
Rod Slaughter
, Vice President, Altus Group

Panel:
Craig Gilpin
, Chief Operations Officer, Ironclad Developments Inc.
Frank Koch-Schulte, Vice President, Edison Properties
Cornelius Martens, Principal, Marwest Group of Companies
Arni Thorsteinson, President & Principal, Shelter Canadian Properties Limited

SESSION C3:
CREDIT AND DEBT MARKETS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? WHERE ARE SPREADS HEADING? WHAT ARE THE MAJOR SOURCES?

A panel discussion that will focus specifically on the debt market and try to determine what borrowers can expect for the remainder of 2020 and beyond. Who are the major sources of CMHC-insured and conventional mortgages in Winnipeg? Where are pricing and loan availability trending in 2020? How are lenders assessing risk and stress testing transactions? To what extent do lending strategies vary amongst banks, credit unions, lifecos, and other sources? Are there any property classes that they are avoiding, reducing exposure to, or increasing pricing for? Case studies of actual transactions will also be examined during the discussion.

Moderator:
Ron Margolis, President, Margolis Capital – Commercial Mortgage Professionals

Panel:
Rick Bachalo
, Vice President, Mortgage Investments, The Canada Life Assurance Company
TJ Lee, Director, Commercial Origination, MCAP
Raj Patel, Vice President, Commercial Real Estate, Public Sector and Supply Chain, RBC Royal Bank
Cynthia Wepruk, Director, Business Financial Centre, Assiniboine Credit Union


3:25 PM
AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS

3:35 PM
EXECUTIVE ROUNDTABLE
WHAT IS THE OVERALL VIEW OF WINNIPEG AND ITS FUTURE? HOW DO INVESTORS ASSESS THE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES? HOW DOES THIS CITY COMPARE WITH OTHER CANADIAN MARKETS?

A wide-ranging roundtable discussion with a diverse group of senior executives on their perspectives about Winnipeg and the future vitality and competitiveness of this city and this real estate market. Among the other questions to be examined:

  • What are the most significant challenges and opportunities for investors in Winnipeg?
  • Where are we in the cycle at this time in the Winnipeg market?
  • How does Winnipeg compare with other markets across Canada?
  • Does anything need to change in order for Winnipeg to reach its ultimate potential?

Moderator:
Jim Ludlow, President, True North Real Estate Development

Panel:
Mark Chipman
, Executive Chairman, True North Sports + Entertainment
Rosanne Hill Blaisdell, Managing Director & COO, Harvard Developments Inc. 
Sandy Shindleman, President & CEO, Shindico
Don Solman, Vice President & CFO,  James Richardson & Sons, Limited


4:30 PM
CLOSING NETWORKING RECEPTION